Tuesday, January 31, 2006
In a $2/$4 NL game, I have JJ in late position. A player in early position raises it to $14. I call and everyone else behind me folds. The flop comes, 933. He checks and I bet out $25 into a $34 pot. He check-raises to $70. WTF?!? I'm thinking, okay, maybe he has a high pocket pair and was looking to trap me. He had another $130 behind him. I had him covered. So, what should I have done?
Since, I had position over him, I was going to call his raise and then see what he did on the river. Luckily for me, the J came on the turn giving me the almost nuts. He went all-in and I immediately called. Guess what he showed? Fuckin, pocket dueces. What an idiot.
In another hand, I hit my two pairs on the river and the guy puts me all in for a hundred and change into an $80 pot. Guess what the idiot had? Ace high.
Alright, so after playing for 45 minutes or so, I ended winning $530. Another winning session in the books. I'm gonna use this money for the tournament next Tuesday.
I've done too much writing today...blogging is an addiction...must...stop....blogging......
And get this...guess how much money we all got for sitting there for 6.5 hours? A whopping $4. Yup. Talk about -EV. I got 61.5 cents for every hour that I was there. I make more money than that taking a shit every day. Four friggin dollars. What a waste of time.
Well, I must say, I'm a little bitter right now. First off, I covered my GLD at $57 for -$715. F me...I hate seeing a negative number. I got SQUEEZED out of my short near the high of the day. Okay, no looking back now. I'm gonna try to forget about this trade.
Another reason why I'm bitter is because I let all of my profits on PD slip away! I was +$1500 at one point and now I'm down about $250. That's a $1750 swing!!! I hate jury duty. If I were actually watching PD, I most likely would've taken profits.
The good note about today was that my AET calls sky rocketed. I bought 10 contracts at an average of $4.55 and they closed at $7.40 today. That's a paper profit of $2,850! I still haven't sold yet, so it's not a true profit yet. I like today's action...hopefully it's continue it's trend tomorrow.
Anybody see GOOG after hours? They halted the stock until 4:30pm. When it opened it dropped to $350 immediately. Down over 70 points! Within seconds, it recovered all the way back up to the $375 area. Now it's trading at $365. I didn't want to miss out on all of the fun, so I bought 50 shares at $366.50. I just want to make a few hundred from it. I hope I get my wish!
The first group of jurors have already been called. I was kinda hoping that I'd be called just to get outta this damn room. I'm signed up as a Petit Juror, which means one-day trials that deal with petty theft.
I feel sorry for the people being tried because after people leave this room, I'm sure every single one of them are in a bad mood for being stuffed in here for so long. I can see "guilty" coming out of everyone's mouth just because of their mood.
After today, I guess I can cross one item off of my "list of things to do before I die": Day Trading in a Court Room. Maybe I'll start up my UltimateBet client and cross another item off.
So...it's been a good morning so far. PD is gapping down big time because of earnings. I didn't even realize that earnings was this morning. If I had known, I probably wouldn't have held it overnight. Good thing I did hold because I'm up about $500 on my puts right now.
AET broke yesterday's high and is up $1.15 right now or 1.24%. My calls are looking money. I have no intention of selling until this puppy goes back to it's high at $99.36. Okay, I'm lying there...I may sell if I don't like the action for some reason.
GLD is dropping a little bit. I definately messed up on this trade. When I entered the position, I even told myself that it was going to be a bad one. I don't know why I'm still even holding onto it. I should've sold at breakeven on Friday. Hindsight is always 20/20.
Alright...I'm out for now. I think people are staring at my screen wondering how in the world I have internet and wondering what all those green and red lights are doing.
Monday, January 30, 2006
short 500 shares of GLD at $55.57
long 5 contracts of PD $160 Puts at $6.00
long 10 contracts of AET $90 Calls at $4.55
My PD short recovered, so I'm about at breakeven right now. My GLD short went up $1.00 today, so I'm stuck $500 right now. Dammit. And my AET calls are a little over breakeven right now. Nothing to be excited about. The stock market was a bore today. I guess everybody's waiting for the Fed decision tomorrow afternoon.
So, I finally played a little bit of poker today. I played some $2/$4 NL at UB. I started with $200. I was up to about $350 when the following hand came up. I had KT in the big blind. Everyone folded to the small blind who raised it to $12. He was a pretty aggressive bluffer, so I decided to call him, since I had position over him. The flop came KK5. The small blind checked. This kinda stumped me a little bit because I thought for certain that he'd bet out on the flop, regardless of the cards. I decided to bet, just to see where my trips were. I bet out $15 and he just called. The turn brought a Q. He checked again. This time, I bet out $35 into a $54 pot. He check-raised me to $70. Now, I was thinking that he might have had AK or maybe even pocket Queens. I decided to call him, since I still had position over him, but I paused for a little bit first, to let him know that I was thinking about it. The river brought a blank, 7. He bet out $145 quickly. Now, I was seriously in trouble. I have trips with a somewhat decent kicker, but I check-raised from a preflop raiser. WTF?!?!? If he hadn't shown me his earlier bluffs, I don't think I would've called him, but he did, so I called. Believe it or not, he turned over A6 for a complete bluff.
What an idiot. I love it when I bust fuckers like this. From that hand onward, he didn't dare bluff me again. Anyways, I ended the session +$400. The session couldn't have lasted any more than 45 minutes.
Well, I've decided to play in a bunch of tourneys next week in AC. I'm heading up there on Monday afternoon and staying till Wednesday. I'm definately going to be playing in the $500+$60 at Harrahs on Tuesday. It's the first event of the WSOP circuit event which lasts for about two weeks.
I'm not too confident about my tournament game right now, but I'm always up for the challenge. I'll probably play in some online tourneys in the upcoming days to try to hone my tournament skills up a little bit. I keep telling myself that all I need to do is to win one somewhat big tourney and I'm golden. Even the $500 tourneys have 1st place payouts of over $50,000. I hate forking over my own money to play in these tourneys, so if I can enter them with money that I've won, then it'll be a hell of a lot less stressful.
Alright, I'm out. High Stake Poker is on right now. How in the world does that dude Sheikan have enough money to play in the high stakes game? WTF?
I just bought another 5 contracts of AET Feb $90 Calls at $4.90. I think this one is going to pop.
I'm watching NMGC like a hawk. The absolute lowest that it can go is $6.60. I'll be looking to buy around there or higher, if necessary.
I'm still holding onto my 500 shares of GLD. I was back to even on Friday, but it gapped up this morning. F me. I should know better than to short a strong stock.
I'm also looking to short PD. It had 5 up days, even making a new all time high, on stronger than average volume. However, it gapped down more than $.50 this morning, which gives us a sell signal.
Friday, January 27, 2006
I did sell my 2000 shares of ONNN at $7.58 for just about break even. I didn't like the non-followthrough from yesterday.
I also bought 5 contracts of AET Feb $90 Calls at $4.2. The chart looks like a successful retest of the short term bottom at $89.21.
Well, no football this weekend. I'm going to go through withdraw. Maybe I'll play some poker. I'm definately going to need some sort of gambling fix though...I'm already starting to twitch...
In his show yesterday, he mentioned this stock OMN. It closed at $5.54 and right after he mentioned it, it ran up above $7.00. So, I shorted it at $7.07. 150 shares. I just wanted some lunch money for today. Just a second ago, I covered at $6.60 for a total profit of $48.52 after commissions. Thanks to Jim Cramer, I get to have a nice steak lunch now. :)
What else? I sold my longer term 550 shares of SFCC at $22.05 for a profit of $1512.52. I didn't like the gap down today. I'm trying to sell my 5 remaining contracts of SFCC at $2.95. It still hasn't gone through yet.
My ONNN is looking decent and my GLD is coming down. I'm going to be looking for some shorts today. Too many people are talking about this market, which only means one thing. We're going lower in the intermediate term.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
I can't wait until one of the players reveals a concealed gun and shoot these mf'ers up. I guarantee you that these guys are two middle/upper class kids who are doing it for the fun of it. It's a lock.
F me on my GOOG trade. I had a $500 profit this morning and I held onto it like an idiot. Instead, I ended up breaking even on that sucker. Shit like that bothers me. Bothers me big time. GREED!
Like an idiot, I'm still holding onto my GLD short. I'm down about 30 cents on it right now, which equates to -$150. There's no reason why I should be holding onto this right now, but I'm going to. I'm going to hold it overnight.
NMGC looks like it may be a buy tomorrow. I'll be watching that sucker closely.
I just realized that my "poker blog" is turning into a mad day trading blog. The problem is, I haven't really been playing that much poker. Not only that, but I can only write about so many different hands before I start repeating myself. Oh well...
I'm out for today.
I bought anothoer stock, ONNN. Got 2k shares at $7.57. Target $9.05.
ABLE is showing signs of strength. SFCC is right on target. I'm selling my long term 550 shares at the $23.50 area. And I'm going to try to sell my calls at around the $4.00 area.
GLD, I'm not sure what's going on right now. I think I entered this trade prematurely.
I put some new day trading blogs on my list. This one dude lost $23.7k in his first year of trading. Can you say EWE?
I did however, short GLD at $55.58. 500 shares. Big volume day yesterday with a topping tail. This stock is still in an uptrend, so I am going to be very cautious on this one. I may have gotten in a little too early.
Looking at SFCC, I really don't see any resistance until it gets to the $23.50 area, which is the 38% retracement from the multi-month high to the multi-month low. Man, what a beautiful trade!
Looks like AMAT just broke the intra-day high. I'm going to try to buy as close to $19.30 as possible.
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Right now, I'm holding -1 GOOG $430 Feb Call and 10 SFCC $20 Feb Calls.
Today was a good day. No...GREAT day.
This score puts me at an all-time high in my stock bankroll.
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
It's all good. What's done is done.
I mean, look at GOOG. It closed at $443 today. Guess what I sold at yesterday? $415.60. 50 shares for almost 30 points. That's $1500.
These stocks could've gone the other way too, I guess. I mean, my AAPL went all the way down to $75.77 today and I sold at $79.32, 10 cents off of the high. If I held onto this stock, I'd be down $600 now, instead of cashing out with +$420.
The only stock that I'm holding now is SFCC. It actually made a nice late day run today. It went all the way up to $19.52 in the last 45 minutes of trading on a nice spike in volume. I think this puppy's going higher...it's just a matter of time. I'm holding 1500 shares in my trading account and 500 in my longer term account; a total of 2000 shares.
Let's see, I played some more at UB today. $2/$4 NL. I won about $100. I played for no more than 30 minutes. I don't know what it is, but I'm getting tired of online poker.
On a different note...I was surfing the cardplayer.com website yesterday and stumbled upon the 2006 Gold Strike World Poker Open tournament. This guy Bau Le, who's currently in 6th place at the final table...I met him at the Showboat tourney in AC a month or two ago. I was talking to him in the line waiting to register. I had no idea that he was such a good tournament player. It looks like he won the $1.5k buy-in no limit tourney about a week ago. Cashed for over $124k. Crazy.
Anyways, while talking to him in line, I picked his brain a little bit. Like me, he was an engineer working for a big engineering company. Then, he stumbled upon poker. After numerous winning sessions playing live and online, he decided to quit his job and play poker for a living. He said that he mainly plays $100-$200 limit online right now, at Party Poker.
Every time I read about people like him, it makes me wonder why I haven't given it a try myself. I want to compete with the big boys at tournament poker. Unfortunately, I wish I had the big bankroll to sustain the downs in tournament poker. I've read that in order to play in all of the major circuit events, you have to have at least $500k for the entire year. I mean, if you have to have $500k just to cover the costs, then I can't imagine the actual bankroll that you need. Probably several million. And then, you have to win or place in some of those tournaments, just to break even.
Alright, I'm going to make an effort to play in some more tournaments this year. I think I need some more experience first before I start playing in the big buy-in ones. I also need to tell myself that I'm not going to win every tourney that I play in. That's just how it's going to be. No one can win EVERY tourney that they play in. That's reality. Once I convince myself this, then I won't get too dejected every time I lose.
So, looking at the tournament schedule, the next one that sounds appealing is the $500 buy-in at Harrahs on Tuesday February 7th. I'll start with that one.
Monday, January 23, 2006
My net total for yesterday's bets were -$130.
Also, I played some online poker on the way up to AC. Played some $2/$4 NL at UB. Believe it or not, I hit em up for about $600. Yeah, I'm on one of those streaks at UB.
I also made a small deposit of $50 at Paradise Poker. I was playing some $25 buy-in NL. I was just having some fun. Blinds were at $.10/$.25 and I raised every hand to $1.00. I busted this one dude so bad, it was pretty funny. I'd hit quads and he'd push me all in. Idiot.
This other dude took me for $50 or $60 though. I think I ended the 45 minute session at -$30 or something like that. Cheapo.
I need to have a running count of my wins and losses in sportsbetting/poker/stocks somewhere on this page. I'll work on it.
The only stock I'm holding now is 1500 shares of SFCC at $19.09.
I'm about to buy some PD February Call options.
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Bally's Poker Tournament: -$120
$1/$2 NL at Bally's (1 hour): +$32
Craps (~12 hours): +$70
Blackjack (~6 hours): +$750
Baccarat (30 minutes): -$100
That's about +$600. The poker room at the Borgata was ridiculously packed the entire weekend, that's why I didn't play at all. The wait was hours and hours long.
Anyways, it was a good weekend. I had good eats, lots of gambling action, and I came out ahead.
Friday, January 20, 2006
I also decided to sell the rest of my CALM. 3000 shares at $6.90 for a net loss of $630.
My shorted 20 SFCC Jan $15 puts expire tomorrow. So, as long as SFCC remains above $15 by the end of today, I'm $900 richer.
I'm still holding my 1500 shares of SFCC from $19.09 and my 10 shorted contracts of TRLG Jan $20 calls. I'm about -$500 on those shorted calls right now. I'll probably cover soon.
ENER looks like it's tanking right now...I guess I sold too early...it's all good. I probably should've trailed the stop above the prior bar's 15-min high. But I'm not going to be able to watch the stock, so it's probably better that I'm out.
I'm bringing $2000 with me up to AC. My goal is to bring $10000 back. Hah...
Have a good weekend.
Mensa Intelligence Test
I'm heading up to AC this weekend to do some gambling. I probably won't be able to get much poker in, since it's the Borgata Winter Open and there'll probably be a ton of players up there. I need to get that 2.5k back that I lost last time.
Thursday, January 19, 2006
By the close, all of my profits had slipped away leaving me with a meager 7 cent paper profit, translating into $105. If I were smart, I would've trailed my stop sell just below the prior low bar on the 15-minute chart, which would've stopped me out just below $19.57 for a gain of $720.
Instead, I held and held and held, until my gains had all but slipped away. Greed will get you in trouble. Greed GOT me in trouble. Now, I'm left to HOPE...hope that it'll go back up tomorrow, so I can capture some gains. To be honest with you, it will most likely not happen because the market hardly ever acts the way you want it to work.
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
After I entered that trade, no more than 30 minutes later, I was staring at a $1200 loss, on paper. So, I'm pretty fuckin happy to come out unscathed on this trade.
Unfortunately, I'm still staring at a loss on my shorted TRLG calls.
This market gapped down huge on the open, then proceeded to go straight up for the next hour and a half. Talk about a short squeeze!
GOOG is down 12.75 right now. Yahoo is down 11% and Intel is down 10%. EWWW!
I made one other trade late yesterday. I bought 200 of SNDK at $71.96. Then another 200 at $71.24. Then sold at $71.55 before the close. I think I lost $20 or so on that trade. I was lucky. It was a dumb entry to begin with. I was trading on emotion versus trading based on the technical analysis.
Two trades today so far. I shorted 1k of RMBS at $33.99 and sold some TRLG Jan $20 calls at $.95. Both of these trades are going in the wrong direction right now! I'll be happy to get out of my RMBS short breakeven.
BTW...I did some more research on starting my own poker site. It looks like it'll cost $15k for the entire package, which will be returned to me after I can generate over $100k/month in rake over a 12 month period. This is for a Prima poker site.
You can get more information from this website:
My Poker Profit
I hate the Prima Poker software, so I would never do business with them, but I'm sure there are other options out there that could be more lucrative. Perhaps, Excapsa? That's the software that UltimateBet uses.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
That's about it for today. The market has been going sideways to lower for most of the day. Let's see if the volatility picks up before close. It's options expiration week, so that should help out a little bit.
Monday, January 16, 2006
Cindy's Poker Room
It seems like everyone is coming out with their own poker room these days. It reminds me of the dot com days when "internet companies" were springing up left and right. We all know what happened to those companies within a few years. Most of them were gone.
So, is the popularity of online poker coming to a climax? Yeah, I think so. According to PokerPulse.com, there are 317 online poker rooms in existence (as of October 8, 2005), played on 50 different poker networks. I'm sure there are a lot more now...only 4 months later.
How in the world can all of these poker rooms make money when there are so many competitors? It's simple, the cost of starting an online poker room pales in camparison to the profit margin that they make on each player. Let's dig a little deeper into the startup costs involved in starting an online poker room:
1) Customer support service =~ $1000 to $10000/month depending on volume
2) Software license =~ $5000 to $10000/month
3) Web designer to build a website w/SEO =~ $5000 to $10000 (one-time payment)
These are basically the only costs involved. Of course, I'm just pulling these out of my own ass, but what other costs can there be besides one full-time employee to manage the business?
Now, marketing a poker room is a totally different story. Sites like Party Poker and UltimateBet and Paradise Poker spend millions and millions of dollars just in marketing. This is what separates the big boys from the peewees. But marketing is a totally different subject.
If I wanted to start my own poker site, it would cost me no more than $20,000/month and an upfront cost of around $20,000. In order to cover these costs and turn a profit on the monthly basis, I would have to be able to get roughly 20 full time players (8 hours a day) on my site. That's an average of $1000 in rake generated by each player per month, which is a very conservative number, considering the fact that I'd be getting 100% rakeback on each of those players. Anything more than 20 players would be gravy.
Athough it seems relatively easy to start a poker site, the question is, how long will it take for my "loyal" customers to jump ship and switch to another site? Player retention is probably one of the hardest problems that most sites have to deal with. With so many sites offering initial deposit bonuses and reload bonuses and freerolls, and this and that, it's nearly impossible to keep a customer playing at the same site over and over again.
This is the reason why I would never start my own poker site, unless, of course, I was famous, like Daniel Negreanu, who's only form of marketing was through his own name. Without even trying, he probably got a few thousand players to sign up to his new site. Imagine the profit involved in having a thousand players on your site! He's a smart man.
The other guys, like Helmuth (UB), and Ivey (FTP), and Jesus (FTP)...they will probably make millions endorsing their sponsor sites, but their contracts will one day end some time. Negreanu, on the other hand, will always make money as long as the players continue to play on his site.
Alright, I think I've yapped enough about how rich all of these poker pros are and how there are so many idiots out there trying to start their own online poker sites these days. Don't get me wrong, I think it's important to constantly come up with new business ideas, but an online poker site is NOT one of them. Every time I see one of these new poker sites pop up, I think to myself, do they really think that they can compete? My guess is that most of them will be gone within a few years...just like internet startup companies in the "dot com" days.
Sunday, January 15, 2006
I lost track of what my season total is, but I think I'm up around +$1500 or something like that. This is including all of the bonuses that I get from the sportsbetting sites.
I tell ya, I'm gonna miss betting on football games once the season's over.
This is going to be a low scoring affair, with Indy winning it by 3. That's my guess. I may even throw some money on Pitt with the money line (+350).
Saturday, January 14, 2006
WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
The average score was WASHINGTON 25.4, OPPONENT 15.0 - (Rating = 4*)
It seems like the public is betting on the skins and the over. And the spread is moving in the skins favor...I don't like that. So, there's no chance that I'll bet on the skins to cover the game.
Looking at the lines, I think the best bet is Skins +6.5 for the first half. I'll probably take this bet for a bill.
For the Denver vs. Patriots game, I think the best bet is 1st quarter under 7.5 (-120). I'll probably load up on that bet. That's about it.
So, I covered my GOOG yesterday at $464.10 for breakeven. I could barely stay awake and I know how fast GOOG can move, so I dumped it. Good to see that it closed higher.
Alright, time to get some solids in my stomach.
Friday, January 13, 2006
Thursday, January 12, 2006
I got 8000 shares of NVAX at $4.59. It was an early entry as the stock dipped down to $4.52 shortly after.
SVA looks good too, but I'll just stick to one Bird Flu stock.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
On the daily chart, depending on where we close today, it will be four topping tail bars. At the same time, the past three days can be considered bullish consolidation days because the stock has only retraced less than 50% of the bullish bar on 1/6/2006.
Anyways, when I'm uncertain about the direction of a stock, it's probably better that I sit it out and wait for a better spot. Just like playing poker...even if you're about 55% sure that you have your opponent beat, you don't want to risk your tournament on a 55% chance.
I can always buy this stock back. It may be higher when I buy it back, but it could also be lower.
Here, read up on this for more info on Flag/Pennant Patterns:
Flag Pattern referrence
Once I get done with CALM, I'm taking it off of my list. I can't play with stocks that only trade 100,000 shares a day. It's like getting your wisdom teeth taken out...no fun.
My hot play of the day? Sell Jan $17.50 put options on SFCC. When you sell a put option, you are betting that the price of the stock doesn't go lower than the strike price ($17.50) by options expiration (1/21/2006). Your maximum reward is the cost of the option (~$1.20). Your risk is the cost of buying the stock at a lower price to cover your put. Read more here.
Alright, back to trading.
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
I spent most of day today at the doctors, so I wasn't able to do my normal trading. I busted my knee playing soccer two months ago and it hasn't healed yet, so I decided to get some X-Rays.
After a three hour ordeal, the doc told me that I needed an MRI. So, I'm off to get an MRI some time this week or next.
No wonder these bastards make so much money. The primary care physician gets money for the original diagnosis. The radiologist gets money for the X-Rays. And now the MRI doctor will get nice sum for his work. Damn, I'm in the wrong business!
Alright, I've got a couple of super plays for tomorrow. They're guaranteed locks! You know how those go...
NMGC looks like it's in a bullish consolidation. I just wanna get my money back now...
SFCC, big gap down this morning. Looks like it may head down to the $17 level to retest the 20 MA.
No trades for me today yet.
Anybody read the news on Marcus Vick?
Guess he doesn't give a crap about his pro career. What an idiot.
On another random thought, I was doing a google search on daytrading blogs yesterday and I couldn't find a single good one. Of the ones that I did find, they weren't being updated. TraderMike.net was the only daytrading blog out there with any substance, but his blog sucks because he doesn't list his trades. Not only that, but he's a like Knish in Rounders...he grinds it out. He takes so many days off because of this and that, it's ridiculous.
I know, I know..."[he's] not playing for the thrill of fucking victory here. [He] owes rent, alimony, child support. [He] plays for money. [His] kids eat."
Whatever. I play for the thrill of victory. I day trade to take easy money from the lesser skilled traders who sell when I buy and buy when I sell. I play poker to own people.
Grinding it out is boring.
Maybe my thoughts will change one day, but until then, I'm in this to become the best day trader out there. I play poker to become the best poker player out there. I bet on sports because I want to beat the bookies/oddsmakers at their own game. It's no fun to do it any other way.
Okay, back to what I was initially talking about...daytrading blogs. I think I can be the first. I must have a theme though. How about, "how to make a million in the stock market in a year"? That's probably an unattainable goal for me, but I think it's a good one because it'll make me work that much harder to obtain that goal.
Alright, I gotta roll. I keep thinking of some more ideas.
Monday, January 09, 2006
SVA gapped up and is holding onto it's gains very nicely. The only thing that I don't like about it is that it's coming up to it's 20 day MA. I think the better play would be to wait for it to break the 20 day MA and come back to retest it. I'll probably hold off on this one.
SFCC, this stock is definately a BUY. It's just a matter of time. I'll probably buy some in my intermediate term account.
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Anyways, here are some stocks that I'll be watching tomorrow: NVAX, GTE, & SIRI. They're all stock that have gone down the past few days and should be on the verge of a trend change. SIRI started the move on Friday.
I'm looking for day trades on all of these stock. No overnight holds.
I'll also be watching NMGC and CALM. I'm holding 3,500 shares of NMGC at $10.48 and 5,000 shares of CALM at $7.10. CALM has support at $6.66.
If I had to make a bet, I'd probably take under 23.5. It's a lock that I would've lost that bet if I placed it.
The over/under is pretty high at 46.5. It opened at 44. That's a 2.5 move to the upside. The over looks good, but the public is betting on the over.
So, here's what I've decided to do. I'm taking over 23 for the first half for a bill.
I'm going to throw some in at half time too.
On a different note, I put $230 on under -7.5 for the first quarter of the Giants vs. Carolina game. I'm already golden as they didn't score any points in the first quarter. I also have under 44.5 for the game. I only put $110 on that though. I haven't placed any bets on the second game yet. I'll post em if I do.
I didn't put any money on the games today, mainly because I hate "jinxing" my team by betting on them. And I didn't get home in time for the late game.
I'm playing a little $4-$4 NL at holdempoker.com right now. It's a Poker Room skin. The interface is exactly the same. I'm down about $85 right now.
I'm playing in the Absolute affiliate tournament tomorrow. First place get an entry into the WSOP main event. Last month, I placed 6th out of 50. Three months ago, I placed 11th out of 55. It'd be pretty exciting if I got an entry. The tournament starts at noon.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Sucks. All he did was step on some dude's calf...guess he's coming to the NFL now...
What worse than losing $1300 in one day? Losing $1645. It was a trick question. I'm still holding my NMGC, but with a hefty sized paper loss. Let's see what happens on Monday. I hope that shit doesn't gap down. I HATE gap downs when I'm long a stock.
Today was a bad day. Nuff said. Monday will be a new day.
What can I do? Absolutely nothing. I just have to take my loss and move on. I'm looking for an exit point as I write.
GOOG blows too. I've lost so much money on this stock. It makes me sick to my stomach. My options are now worth $160. Heh. I don't know why I fight the trend. The only good thing about GOOG is that when the stock goes up $5, the put options only go down $.05. Heh. I'll make my money back on GOOG eventually....all of it.
What also makes me sick is watching all of these gold stocks fly. BGO and GSS in particular. If I held on to these stocks and not shorted GLD, I'd be making loot now.
Note to self: never fight the trend. This will be the second rule on my list.
Alright, it's been an ugly day so far...for me, at least. All of the longs are ecstatic. To quote KGB in the movie Rounders:
"Just like a young man coming in for a quickie. I feel so unsitisfied"
Thursday, January 05, 2006
I should write a set a trading rules.
CALM is killing me too. Only 5150 shares has been traded this morning. I have 5000 shares. How in the hell am I going to sell 5000 shares when no one is there to buy it? Check the Level II real-time quotes:
The picture above represents all of the NASDAQ market makers (the guys who actually buy and sell stock) for CALM. The column on the left hand side represents all of the buyers of the stock (aka BID) and the right hand side represents all of the sellers of the stock (ASK). If you look at all of the shares being offered (on the left side represented by the column "Size"), most of them are under 1000 shares. If I wanted to sell 5000 shares right now, the BID would probably drop all the way down to 6.83 or something like that. So, I would sell 100 shares at 6.87, 1000 shares at 6.86, 1400 at 6.85, 400 at 6.84 and the rest at 6.83. That's the problem with trading low volume stocks.
On a different note, anybody watch the game last night? It was probably one of the best games that I've seen since USC vs. ND. Vince Young is sick. Pete Carroll cost me $115 by going for it on 4th and 2 and NOT putting Reggie Bush in. Bastard. I had the 2nd half -6.5 for USC. If they would've just punted on that 4th and 2, then they probably would've won the title. And how about Reggie Bush's stupid lateral in the 1st quarter...wtf? Great game though.
Alright, I'm on the phone with verizon right now. I just got a new cell phone. T-mobile blows. Here's the phone that I got:
I can connect this sucker to my laptop and dial-out with it to get internet access. It'll be handy on my road trips to AC. No more paying $10/day for internet at the Borgata.
It looks like it may be a boring day in the markets today...if I make some trades, I'll post em immediately.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Bought 9k of BGO at $3.09 yesterday and sold at $3.14 this morning. It's at $3.20 right now! I sold too early! Still a nice $450 profit though.
Bought 10k GSS at $2.84 and still holding. It's at $2.92 x $2.93 right now. It has a potential target of $3.22. I'll see how it acts today. It's hard not to take such a nice profit right here, but the chart doesn't say "SELL" yet, so that's why I'm still holding.
Still holding my 2 GOOG Jan $420 puts from $10.60. Umm..we all know how GOOG is doing right now....all time high, upgrade to $600, yadda, yadda, yadda. I think it's probably best to just trade GOOG as the swings are ridiculous. My max loss on this sucker is $2100. I'm gonna hold and see how it closes today.
Still holding my 5k of CALM at $7.10. It finally came back up to that level. It's trading at $7.07 x $7.11 right now. I like the chart setup, but I will most likely sell today since it's been up three days in a row. I'm waiting for a sell signal on the 15-min chart.
Out of the blue, he IM'd me a few days ago. Supposedly, he's also a partner in the rakeback site:
Anyways, here's the IM dialog that ensued:
[01:23] justinbonomo: you back
[01:23] boogster poker: sup man
[01:23] justinbonomo: you want cash on stars
[01:23] boogster poker: how does that work?
[01:24] justinbonomo: do you have an account with party
[01:24] boogster poker: yup
[01:24] justinbonomo: you ever use igm pay
[01:25] boogster poker: yeah
[01:25] justinbonomo: well if you qualifi\y we will give you 2000
[01:25] justinbonomo: for free
[01:25] boogster poker: how do you qualify
[01:26] justinbonomo: well if you reset your account info to my poker screename i will see if you are qualifies
[01:27] boogster poker: i'm not quite sure what you're trying to do here
[01:27] justinbonomo: whts your account name
[01:29] boogster poker: tell me what you are trying to do?
[01:31] justinbonomo: just want to see your play
[01:31] justinbonomo: and we will give you 2000
[01:31] boogster poker: on party?
[01:31] justinbonomo: yes
[01:31] boogster poker: how can you see my play?
[01:31] justinbonomo: reset your account
[01:31] boogster poker: how do you do that?
[01:31] justinbonomo: whats your account name
[01:31] boogster poker: i don't wanna give that to ya
[01:31] boogster poker: right now
[01:32] boogster poker: until i know what's going on
[01:32] justinbonomo: i am going to login to your account then deposit
[01:33] justinbonomo: ok
[01:33] justinbonomo: you want me to register you
[01:34] boogster poker: how are you going to login to my account?
[01:34] justinbonomo: you need to reset it
[01:34] boogster poker: tell me how to do that
[01:34] justinbonomo: go in to your account
[01:35] justinbonomo: you in it
[01:35] boogster poker: yup
[01:35] justinbonomo: go in to top lef
[01:35] boogster poker: yup
[01:35] justinbonomo: it says reset pass
[01:36] boogster poker: so if i reset my password and change my account name to yours
[01:36] boogster poker: then what happens?
[01:36] justinbonomo: reset the pass to zeejustin
[01:37] justinbonomo: ok
[01:37] justinbonomo: you reset it yet
[01:38] boogster poker: no chance i'm doing that
[01:38] justinbonomo: so no bonus theen
[01:38] justinbonomo: need to see if you qualify
[01:40] justinbonomo: die nigger die
[01:40] justinbonomo: nigger die
Bottom line? This kid is a punk. I can't stand people who use derogatory terms. There's absolutely no need for it. Not sure what he was trying to do, but my guess is that he was trying to hustle some random people on his IM list.
Anyways, I just wanted to let everyone know about this idiot. Don't read his blog. Don't pay any attention to him.
Sunday, January 01, 2006
I started with $3200 in three different sportsbetting accounts: Mansion.com, Betcris.com, and SportsInteraction.com. Let's see how much I finish the season with.
- Take my stops when I'm supposed to.
- Don't go to lunch with losing positions during a day trade.
- Dont' trade before 9:50am.
- Never risk more than 5% of my portfolio on any trade.
- Do not buy or short a stock before an earnings announcement.
- Don't hold a position over night in my daytrading account.
- Don't fight the market internals.
- Always take price action over indicators.
How do I get started?
Well, the first thing that you need to do is to fund a brokerage account. If you have a spare $4,000, then I'd recommend that you open up a Roth IRA at Ameritrade.com and start swing trading. Swing trading is when you buy a stock and sell it a few months later for, hopefully, a profit. The thing about a Roth IRA is that all profits are non-taxable and you can take out any of your initial contributions at any time without penalty! Trust me, it's the best thing to do for beginners with smaller bankrolls.
If you have $25,000 or more, then I still recommend that you open up a Roth IRA first, then when you're ready, you can open up an Individual account at Ameritrade.com, InteractiveBrokers.com, TradeStation.com. I started out at Ameritrade, but I just recently switched over to InteractiveBrokers.com because they have the per share commission schedule, which will save me a crapload of money in commissions in the long run. Interactive Brokers also has a tight integration into Medved Quotetracker which is the trading system that I use.
Click here for a picture of my daytrading desktop.
What books would you recommend to people interested in learning how to daytrade?
To be honest, I haven't read very many daytrading books myself. Mainly because when I got started, there weren't very many books written on daytrading. Most of what I know, I've learned through the various websites. Pristine.com is hands down the best site out there. I don't have any type of partnership with them, so I tout them because I owe most of what I know to them.
If you really want to read some books, then you can check these out:
Thinking about it now, I'd definately recommend reading one or all of the books above before you do any trading at all. Or, if you'd like to accelerate the learning process, then follow blogs like mine or pay for a professional trader to teach you all that they know. READ, READ, READ and STUDY, STUDY, STUDY....these are the keys to success. Remember, in order to become great at something, you have to eat, sleep, and breathe it.
Which daytrading websites would you recommend?
- Pristine.com - Sign up for their free newsletters. Buy their books. Buy some of their DVDs. And if you're really serious, then sign up for their 2-week trading lab. I guarantee you that you'll learn more in 2-weeks with them than you would in 2 years by yourself. Don't be scared to spend the money because in the end, it's just an investment.
- Daytraders.org - Login to their IRC chatroom during market hours. You can learn a lot from the traders out there. And best of all, it's absolutely free. Of course, there's a lot of "noise" in the room because it's free, but there are a lot of good traders in the room as well.
- Trading Blogs - Read as many daytrading blogs as possible. If you want to become a technical analyst like myself, then there's none better than my blog. :) Trader-X has a pretty in depth blog based on techinical analysis as well, but I must warn you that his blog is not really for the beginning trader.
- EliteTrader.com - They have one of the best forums available to traders on the net. I don't visit the site myself, but other traders love the site.
- DecisionPoint.com - They have newsletters from a lot of trading professionals offered for free. Personally, I go there to read Tim Ord's The Ord Oracle. He knows his shit.
- Briefing.com - Daily Market news and commentary. I use to check them out on a daily basis, but I find myself using them less and less.
- Daytradeteam.com - Three professional daytraders in a chat room making calls. The cost of a yearly subscription is $995. They offer a $5 for 5 days trial subscription. If you're interested in learning how day trade, then this is the place to go.
How about DVDs?
Here were the four DVDs that were most instrumental in my learning process:
- Core Trading Tactics with Oliver Velez - $49
- Swing Trading Tactics with Oliver Velez - $49
- Guerilla Trading Tactics with Oliver Velez - $49
- Intra-day Trading Techniques with Greg Capra - $49
I just bought this one as well:
- Market Internals with Greg Capra - $245
I recommend getting them all. Both of the Oliver Velez and Greg Capra seminar series will cost you a total of around $700, but if you're serious about daytrading, then scrounge up the money and get em. You'll thank me later.
What software would you recommend?
This is all based on preference. I've been using Medved Quotetracker for as long as I can remember. You can download and use the software for free. I opted to pay the $60/year fee, which is peanuts compared to how much I make and lose on each trade. The software is tightly integrated with Ameritrade, InteractiveBrokers and a slew of other brokerages.
Other options would be TradeStation or Cybertrader. I haven't had any experience with either of these platforms, so I can't recommend either of them.
How much have I made in daytrading?
Well, I made $22,976.54 in 2005. And, as of April, I've made over $43,000 in 2006, all from an initial starting bankroll of $20,000. How much you make is going to be relative to how much risk you're willing to accept and how much money you start off with. I know some professional daytraders who fund their account with $100,000 at the start of every year and that's all that they'll use for the entire year. I'm sure some daytraders make millions a year, but most of us are just here to make a decent living at something that we love doing.
How much have I lost in daytrading?
The most that I've ever lost on one single trade is probably around $6,000 - $7,000. It's not fun, nor do I recommend it. Make sure that you stick to your stop losses.
Can you offer any advice to a beginner?
Yeah, don't start trading until you know what the hell you're doing because it's going to be an expensive lesson if you try to learn by trial and error. If you're one of those guys who wants to throw their money out there and learn the hard way, then make sure you're smart about how you go about picking the stocks that you buy (i.e. read my blog, or read some books first).
Fundamentals: It's okay to understand the fundamentals behind a stock, but I wouldn't rely on them, unless you are investing in the stock for the long term. Fundamentals are earnings, p/e ratios, debt to cash ratios, book to sales, etc. These things are important to investors, but not to traders. I think it's great to know what these things are, but I can honestly say that fundamentals mean crap to me when I'm trading. I think it's important to understand that emotions drive stocks up and down, not fundamentals. Learn how to read charts and analyze the "emotions" of the traders from what the chart tells ya.
What else? Try to focus a core group of stocks. I only have about 20-30 stocks that I keep track of on a daily basis. That's plenty of stocks for me to trade. If you have too many stocks to watch, then you are just going to overextend yourself and lose focus. It's better to be the master of one stock, than to be mediocre at trading 100 stocks.
Do your homework. Making money doesn't come easy. Trust me when I say that anyone and everyone making money in this business does their homework on a daily basis. Things don't always work out the way that you plan them to, but the important thing, is to be right when it counts. Study, research, and analyze.
Can you offer some tips on reading charts?
Yeah, this is my specialty. I use the 20 and 40 period simple moving averages, so make sure you have those on your chart. Volume is important as well. Definately go with the candlesticks and not the line charts. Candlesticks give you more information. That's it. That's pretty much all of the indicators that I use. Everything else, you can just forget about (bollinger bands, stochastics, MACD, etc.). As long as you understand price action, then you are golden.
Now, once you have the type of chart defined, then you can skip to the various time periods. I use everything from monthly to weekly to daily, all the way down to the 2-minute charts. The longer the time frame, the more important the support and resistance levels are. So, if you see a major resistance on the monthly chart, then it will also be major resistance in all lower time frames. On the other hand, if you see resistance on the 2-min chart, it doesn't mean that it is also resistance on the daily chart.
So, what is support and resistance? Well, they're basically areas in which there is a lot of supply or demand in a stock. If it's a resistance area, then there's a lot of people who own the stock overhead and it will most likely cause a pause in an uptrending stock or cause the stock to go down from that point. The reverse is true for support. Support means that a lot of people will be looking to buy the stock at a certain level, which will cause the stock to stop going lower or possibly reverse to the upside. Remember that supply and demand are the only two things that cause a stock to go up or down or sideways, nothing else.
Here's a quick example:
Here's a weekly chart of CSCO from 2004 to the present day. Resistance is represented by the top blue line and support is represented by the bottom blue line. The idea is simple, buy the stock when it touches the bottom blue line and sell when it touches the top blue line. If it breaks one of those lines, then you can buy after the first pullback from the breakout. Simple as that.
Another important tip to remember is to try to buy strong stocks when they've gone down 3-5 days in a row and try to sell weak stocks when they've gone up 3-5 days in a row. Strong stocks are defined as stocks that are trading above their 20 and 40 period moving averages. Weak stocks are those that are trading below their 20 and 40 period moving averages.
Here's a quick example:
GOOG is obviously in a strong uptrend here as seen by the rising 20 and 40 period moving averages (yellow and blue lines going upwards). You should be looking to buy GOOG any time when the stock has gone down 3-5 days in a row, even if it's intra day. The closer to the 20 period MA, the better. Look for signs of a double top and avoid the stock when a double top has been made.
If you don't understand some of the terms that I'm using, then you can just do a google search on them. Or perhaps you can pick up a book on Japanese candlestick analysis.
One last tip. Always keep your stops. I have a big problem with this as seen from my blogs, but basically, the idea is to keep a mental note of where you will take a loss on the trade if it hits that set price. Ultimately, this will keep your losses small, which is most important when daytrading! Not keeping stops will be the end of you. Trust me, I've been there.
One important technical indicator that I failed to mention is the fibonacci lines. I use them frequently to determine entry and exit points. They work wonders and every good technician uses them. I'm not going to go into detail about how they work, but the basic idea is that stocks always tend to retrace back to certain level when consolidating. The standard retracement levels are 40%/50%/60%. Anyways, make sure you understand fibonacci lines.
I've been using RSI (relative strength index) more and more. It's an essential part of my technical analysis now. Make sure you have this indictor on your intra-day charts. A reading above 70 means that we're overbought and a reading below 25 means that we're oversold.
For longer term analysis, I found that the McClellan Osciallator is a huge factor in determining the overall short term market direction. Make sure you have this indicator when viewing your daily charts. A reading above 200 means that we're overbought. A reading below -200 means that we're oversold.
What are Options?
There are two types of options, calls and puts. Buying calls gives you the option to buy someone else's stock at the certain price by a certain date. Puts are just the opposite. They give you the option of selling someone else's stock at the certain price by a certain date. Many traders like options because they cost a whole hell of a lot less than their corresponding stocks do, but the drawback is that they are a lot more volatile than stocks are.
I'm not going to go into detail about all of the different options strategies, as information can be easily found by doing a google search. Here's a link to an article on options for the lazy.
Which brokerage do you use?
I use Interactive Brokers as my main daytrading broker. However, I also have several accounts at Ameritrade, which was my old brokerage. If you're serious about daytrading, you must open an account at a brokerage that offers the per share commission plan. Trust me, it'll save you a ton in commissions. I spend anywhere from $100-$300 per day in commissions alone!
What is the YM?
YM is the ticker symbol for the Dow Jones Industrial Average e-minis futures. Futures are binding contracts that allow the buyer to purchase a commodity at a certain date in the future. Your brokerage must allow the trading of futures before you can even get a quote on them. Ameritrade, Scott Trade, E-Trade, none of these brokerages allow futures trading. An alternative to trading the Dow futures is the to trade DIA, which is the Dow ETF (Exchange Traded Fund).
How do I go about trading futures?
Sign up to one of the following brokerages: Interactive Brokers, Cybertrader, Trade Station, ThinkorSwim. Futures trading requires a lot less equity than a regular daytrading account does. A regular daytrading account requires a minimum of $25,000. Futures trading requires a minimum of $2,000.
How much does it cost to trade the YM?
The cost of futures are calculated using Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN). Basically, they use price and volatility to calculate the amount of cash required to buy one contract. I think it varys on a daily basis. Here's the website that explains the calculation:
Here are the actual margin requirements for each of the futures contracts at Interactive Brokers:
Interactive Brokers Margin Requirements
Right now, you must have at least $1219 cash in your trading account to buy 1 contract of the YM on a intraday basis. You need more if you plan on holding overnight.
In 1994, I received a $10,000 inheritance from my grandfather when he passed away. I was 17 years old, I had just graduated high school, and I was on my way to college at Virginia Tech. Everybody that I talked to told me to invest the money. So I took $4000 and put it in two mutual funds that my local bank pushed. I remember watching my money "grow" at an astounding rate of 5% per year. Boring...
After reading up on mutual funds and investing, I stumbled upon Datek Online (now known as Ameritrade). Datek was one of the first online discount brokerages. They offered lightning fast trades over the internet for only $9.99 per transaction. So, I took $2000 and opened up an account at Datek. At that time, daytrading was just in it's beginning stages because up until Datek opened up shop, there was no way for anyone to technically "daytrade". First off, not everyone had internet access back in 1994. Secondly, real-time quotes were expensive! When Datek opened up shop, they offered FREE real-time quotes and cheap commissions. Only then, did daytrading become feasible.
After I opened up my account at Datek, I started reading everything in sight about daytrading. There wasn't much, but there was enough. I remember reading motleyfool.com, pristine.com, zacks.com and signing up for the chat room at daytraders.com and watching CNBC religiously. I was hooked. I remember scheduling my classes around the trading day. That meant no classes during the market open, between 9am and 11am, and no classes at the makret close, between 3pm and 4pm. I also remember being glued to my computer screen, with CNBC in the background, and clicking the refresh button to update my real-time quotes (streaming real-time quotes were in it's beginning stages and were expensive!). I was more engrossed in daytrading than I was ever in any one of my classes. It was pretty bad. I don't think I did any homework or studying until AFTER the stock market had closed.
Anyways, the first stock that I bought was Enzon (ENZN) back in 1994-1995. It was a pharmaceudical company that only produced a few drugs. I don't know how I found that stock, but I did. I bought a few hundred shares of the stock at around $2 and change. I studied it. I knew everything about the stock. I even listened to a few of their conference calls. And then, I sat there and watched it. Every day. For a year. It barely even moved. Finally, after a year of boredom, I sold it for a small profit. Right after I sold it, it took off. It traded at $84 in year 2000.
After playing around with $2000 for a year or so, I decided that in order to make some real money, I needed some more money to play with. $2000 was not enough to day trade with. Not even close! So I sold my mutual funds, paying the 10% early withdrawal fee, and deposited that money into my Datek account giving me a little over $6000 in playing money. I was also able to con...err...umm...sell my daytrading skills to my mom and my brother. They agreed to give me $2000 a piece because I told them that I'd turn it into $4000 for them within a year. (Boy, were they idiots.)
Within the first two years, I had made a very nice profit of about $13,000. I had done well at daytrading by grinding it out in a conservative daytrading approach. I had bought stocks on dips and waited for up to several months to reap the rewards. I even paid a ridiculous amount of money in taxes. It was all good. Those were the "internet bubble" days.
As I gained my confidence in my abilities, I saw and read all around me that daytraders were becoming millionaires because stocks like EBAY, AMZN, and YHOO were going up 100% in just a few shorts days. Everybody and their moms started talking about the stock market, kinda like how everyone is talking about the housing market these days. So, I dabbled in these internet stocks. Like everyone else, by January 2000, I had lost the majority of bankroll, over $20,000. I thought that that was it, my daytrading "career" was over.
In July 1999, I finished college with my Electrical Engineering degree (EE). Although I got my EE degree, my heart wasn't in Engineering. I didn't want to work for anybody, but what options did I have? I thought that daytrading was the solution, but at that time, I barely even had enough money to buy a couple of shares of Yahoo. It wasn't going to work unless I was able to build my bankroll back. So I got a job.
Luckily, when I came out of school, guys like me with Engineering backgrounds were in high demand. I was able to land a job at an up and coming IT company. They offered me a position as a Network Engineer. I started working for them in August 1999. I was 22 years old.
After my first year of working, I was able to save a few thousand bucks. I immediately opened a Traditional IRA and put about $2000 in there. I remembered investing in AOL and this company called Ariba. That $2000 turned into $180 in no time because we all know what happened to AOL. And Ariba, well, let's just say that it was way overpriced when I bought it. Another $2000 down the drain. Boy, did I suck!
By 2002, and after my second year of working, I was able to save another few thousand bucks and I opened up a Roth IRA. I put $3000 in my Roth IRA account. I was also maxing out my 401k at my work. These are two things that I recommend everyone doing. The 401k and the Roth IRA are the two most important things, investing wise, for the average every day person.
Anyways, by 2004, I stumbled upon the poker affiliate business. I worked on the boogster.com website almost day and night because I saw the potential. By July 2004, I opened up shop at boogster.com by myself. I started promoting my website anywhere and everywhere that I could (ebay, craigslist, fatwallet, poker forums, bonuswhores, etc.). My only real competitors at that time were PokerSourceOnline and eCasinoDeals. By January 2005, a few of my customers posted great reviews about my site on the various poker forums. And that was it...the ball has been rolling ever since.
In June 2005, almost a year after I started boogster.com, I made the decision to quit my job. Just like that. My heart was never in engineering anyways. Although I was great at it, it just wasn't what I really wanted to do. I hated grinding it out, sitting in a cubicle 8 hours a day! Hated it.
August 26, 2005 was the last day at my job. I couldn't have been more excited to start my new "life". I was anxious to try my hand at daytrading full time. I even bought $245 worth of DVDs from Pristine.com. If I was going to do it, then I'd do it right. Buying those DVDs was probably the best decision that I could've made because not only did it open my eyes to the world of daytrading, but it also reinspired me to become great at it.
By the time I quit my job, I had turned my $20,000 invested into about $25,000 by swing trading random stocks, mainly gold stocks. FYI, $25,000 is the minimum required to open an unrestricted daytrading account.
After building my $25,000 into about $37,000, I started learning about options trading. As soon as I knew it, my $37,000 went all the way back down below $25,000! Yeah, it was ugly. I don't recommend learning options trading by trial and error. Not only did I lose all of my gains back in a few short weeks, but I was also now below the $25,000 threshold for a daytrading account. Luckily, or I guess you can say skillfully, I was able to turn that $25,000 back into about $43,000 by year's end.
By the end of 2005, I had a nice $23,000 gain. A more than 100% gain in less than 4 short months. Not too shabby huh? So, here I am, in April 2006, daytrading full-time, playing poker occasionally, and betting on sports when I'm bored with the other two. Oh yeah, and of course, there's boogster.com, the idea that made all of this possible.
The first step is to look at the daily and weekly charts to determine the trend.
I use Medved Quotetracker for my charts. Weekly chart, 3 years, with the 20, 40, and 200 period moving averages and volume and RSI. That's it.
Looking at the weekly chart of HANS, it may look like we're going higher in the next few months, but notice how the RSI made a lower high on that last new high. This is called a bearish divergence, which tells me that it's almost time to short this stock. Also note that we've create an M-top with the second top coming on lower volume. So, in the back of my mind, I'm telling myself to look for a short entry and not a long entry.
For the daily charts, I use the same indicators and I use a 6 month chart. Now, looking at the daily chart, notice how HANS just recently broke the uptrend line at $45. Although RSI is currently at 34.9, which is somewhat low, it seems to me that the trend is changing to the downside, so I can short this stock soon, if not today.
The next thing that I do is look for stocks that have done this before. Check this out:
Looks familiar, huh? If HANS follows RMBS, then we should drop like a brick from here on out. So, let's say that I enter this stock on the following trading at at $42.77. I would put my stop at 10-20 cents above the previous day's high ($45.19), which would put my stop around the $45.35 area. My target? Well, looking at the weekly chart, the first area of support is around the $39 area, so we can cover half there and hold the other half for further downside. I don't normally have a set stop price or a set target price, but I almost always have a general idea of when I want to take profits or losses. Usually, I'll just look for an intra-day bottoming signal to take my profits.
Since, I'm writing this in real-time, I don't know what exactly will happen to HANS. I guess we'll find out in a few weeks or months. My plan is to short HANS on 7/24/2006 for swing trade. HANS is currently trading at $42.77 as of July 23, 2006. Let's see what happens.
Daytrading (2 minutes to 2 hours)
Daytrading and swing trading are very similar, except, I use the 2-min, 15-min, and 60-min charts for daytrading. This is similar to using the weekly and daily charts, except I start at the 60-min and 15-min charts to find the overall trend, then go down to the 2-min charts to look for an entry. The technical analysis is the same though. Here's an example:
Looking at the 60-min chart, I can see that we made a bottom from last Friday through last Tuesday and then from Wednesday till this Friday, we retraced about 60% the high to the bottom. And now, we're going lower again. This 60-min chart tells me what we're probably going lower over the next few days.
Looking at the 15-min chart, I can see that we made an M-top on Wednesday and Thursday. And then on Friday, we had a very bearish drop and a bearish consolidation (sideways action after a drop with very little retracement to the upside). This confirms what the 60 minute chart was telling me. I should be looking to short this puppy. Notice how the RSI is pretty low on the 60-min chart though. This tells me that I should probably wait for the next surge upwards before shorting. It could take a few hours on the next trading day.
Now, I look at the 2-min chart for entries and exits.
On the first sign of an M-top, I short the stock. Then, I cover at the first sign of a W-bottom and reshort on an M-top. If the RSI is too low when the M-top is forming, then I usually just sit back and wait for another entry point. Remember, missed money is better than lost money. So, that's basically it.
It's very important to know the trend of a stock, then when you know the trend, you can go long or short based on this trend. Your chances of success when you follow the trend is much greater than your chances are when you buck the trend. The is always your friend...don't ever forget that.
I know that this writeup is not comprehensive, but if you follow my blog, you'll start to see more and more of how I trade.