party poker

Saturday, September 09, 2006

College Picks

A little late, but I'll post all of the ones that I've taken so far:

Statfox picks:
Tulsa vs BYU under 53, $110 to win $100 @ Betcris.com
Missouri -6.5 1st half, $105 to win $100 @ Betcris.com
South Carolina +3 over Georgia, $110 to win $100 @ Mansion.com

My picks:
Virginia Tech -4 2nd half, $115 to win $100 & Betcris.com

I'll probably put a bet on tonight's big game as well. I'll post it when I make the bet.

NFL Picks

Here's who I'm taking for the 1pm games:

Philadelphia -4.5 over Houston, $330 to win $300 @ Mansion.com
Denver -3.5 over St. Louis, $220 to win $200 @ Betcris.com
Seattle vs. Detroit Under 45, $110 to win $100 @ Sports Interaction

I went 2-2 yesterday for -$20. Now you see why the bookies always win?

Friday, September 08, 2006

NFL Super Locks - 5 STAR PLAYS

Here are my picks for Sunday:

Philadelphia -4.5 over Houston (Bet the farm)
Denver -3.5 over St. Louis (2 units)
Seattle vs. Detroit Under 45 (1 unit)

That's all I have folks.

Done for the week...+$817.35

Done for the day...+$0

Boring day today. I didn't make one single trade. I guess I wanted to end the week on a good note. It also had to do with the fact that there was absolutely no volume in today's market. I'm watching and waiting. I actually did some work on NFL Challenge today as well. I've a stats page up now that tells me how many people are betting on each game. Hopefully, I'll be able to use this information to help me with my wagers.

Anyways, I'm done with trading of the week. Have a good weekend.

NFL Opener- Oddsmakers in vulnerable position

Article

I was wrong about the stats on the first game of the returning superbowl champs. Here were the real stats:

"In the last five years the Super Bowls winners are 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS the first three games of the season. With the adjusted Total, Miami falls into a trend that shows them at 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last 3 seasons."

BTW...if any of you are into sportsbetting, make sure you check out Statfox.com. They offer stats and trends for every game known to man. I actually paid for a one year subscription to their stats service. I think it cost me like $275. Yeah, not cheap, but I did it last year just as a trial. I actually don't find myself using it that much, so I won't do their subscription again.

Also, make sure you check out their Statfox Super Situations picks on college football.

link

Those picks have done a lot better than I have. I can't pick games to save my life. I just hope to break even in sportsbetting every year...hah.

Friday Morning Update...

I've got nothing this morning. I'm still holding onto my RIMM short, YM short, and DIA puts. I'll most likely get rid of my DIA september puts soon. I should've exited the $112 puts a while ago. I gotta stop playing options until I read a book on how to trade them. I still don't really understand which options have the best value yet. I know how much risk I'm willing to take and I know my target price, but I don't really know how to analyze which options contain the best value for my money. Anyways, I definately need to start reading up on my options trading.

BTW...I did that Mansion.com free bet last night. I decided to hedge my bet over at betcris.com. I put down $550 to win $500 on Miami +1.5 over at betcris and put $1100 to win $1000 on Pitt pickem over at Mansion.com, so I ended up winning $450. I was going to let it ride on Pitt, but I really wasn't sure if they were going to cover or not, so I took the safe route.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Done for the day...+$2,222.45

Got my money back from Tuesday. It sure does feel good to have all of this effort that I put into reading and analyzing charts pay off. If you guys only knew how much time I spend studying and reading and obsessing about the stock market, then you would understand the desire that I have to win at this game. I probably spend more time learning about the stock market than most people do sleeping on a daily basis. It's sick. I may lack "discipline" and "patience" at times and I am most definately "reckless", but when it comes to "hard work", it kills me when I read someone comment about my lack of "hard work". Kills me because you have no idea.

It's kinda funny how people are so eager to kick me when I'm down, but yet so reluctant to offer praise when I'm up. Yeah, I admit, I probably bring a lot of this onto myself because I am sometimes "cocky" and "arrogant" in my blogs, but it's the crazy competitor in me that writes all of that stuff. 15 comments on Tuesday when I lost $1,400...all bashing the crap out of me, where are all of you mofos now, huh? I'm sorry, that was the crazy competitor in me writing again. Seriously though, if I were reading my own blog, I wouldn't blame myself for wanting me to lose either...I'm sooooo cocky sometimes...hah. At least I admit it, right? How fun would reading this blog be if I didn't show my true emotions?

Anyways, good day today. I like how we closed near the lows of the day with VOLUME....the most important thing. I want to see what Tim Knight has to say about today's action. He seems like a man who knows his technical analysis. So, what's in store for us tomorrow? Well, I want to see one more big gap down below today's lows and hopefully another big red bar. Things are definately looking good for us bears today though....

Have a good evening.

DIE YM, DIE BEATCH!!!

Hah...F the YM. I have way too much fun writing this damn blog, but only on days in which I'm making money.

August Trading Results...

Despite the awful loss in my daytrading account last month, I still eeked out a small gain across all portfolios for the month of August. I seriously thought that I was in the red for last month because it sure felt like I was in the red. I guess that HANS swing trade saved me big time.

Daytrading: -$3,815.55
Swing #1: +$4,116.89
Swing #2: -$47.41

Total: +$253.93

You can see my results listed in my Monthly Totals spreadsheet. I don't have all of my trades for my IB account posted yet because they haven't updated their stats yet. It usually takes about 5 to 6 days, but it looks like they've got some issues this month.

Looking at my stats, perhaps I should stick to swing trading as that seems to be what I'm best at. I still don't have enough stats to make an accurate judgement of my results though. I think that by January of next year, I should be able to figure out what works best for me. That doesn't mean that I'll stop daytrading though because I can't imagine doing anything else. Not only that, but I enjoy daytrading a lot.

Man, I really don't know how Charles Kirk of the Kirk Report consistently makes over $100k a year from doing this shit. I guess he does play with a lot more money than me, but still...I don't think I'd have a $100k profit even if I did have more money. Not right now, at least. That's the thing about trading...as long as there's someone better than me, I don't think that I'll ever stop doing it, unless I get to the point where I don't think I'll ever become any better. It's like boogster.com, having competitors like PSO & VegasPokerPro makes doing my job so much more exciting because right now, these guys are bigger than us and it's like I'm competing with them day in and day out to become the best. I love battling it out.

Okay...enough ranting. Another hour and a half of trading. I haven't done jack today, mainly because I'm still holding onto my short positions and I don't feel as though I should be entering more. Not now at least. It'd be nice to see the DOW close at it's low today....

Trading Station...

Since everybody is posting pictures of their trading stations, I figured that I'd post a picture of my own. It's fun seeing what kind of setup other traders have. Look how ghetto mine is compared to Glenn's and Hubert's. Theirs look like war rooms, mine looks like something you'd find at walmart. Hah.

My Trading Station






I hope these guys don't mind me posting pictures of their trading stations. BTW...can someone tell me why you would need 6 monitors for trading?? WTF? I wouldn't even know which one to look at. One of these days, I'm going to get a 10 monitor trading system just because...

DIA

Notice the heavy volume on DIA, which means the big guys are finally starting to sell. We're at 2.2million shares right now. Yesterday, we only traded 4.3 million shares the entire day! We're only an hour and 20 minutes into the trading day! It's a lock that my man Tim Knight is loving today's action.

RIMM

Okay, let's revisit RIMM, since I need to figure out when to exit my short position. I put fibonacci lines on the chart below to give me some reference points. If you don't know what fibonacci lines are, then I suggest that you learn about them and quick because they are essential for traders.



RIMM has run so hard and so fast to the upside, that it's left very little support below. Usually, stocks that fly up like this usually drop just as fast. Eventually, I think that RIMM will retrace 100% of its move up. From a swing trading perspective, I think that a good exit target point would probably be around its 50% retracement level, which would put my target just below $74. Notice how there's a little bit of support there as well. So, that's what I'll be looking for.

Covered 5 YM at 11366 for +$2225

Alright, I'm taking half of my profits off of the table here. I feel a lot more comfortable holding only 5 contracts even though I have absolutely no reason for selling here. I mean, my technical analysis hasn't changed a bit. I'm still expecting us to take out the multi-month lows in one fast quick move down. My only reason for selling here is for my own comfort. That's a legitimate reason right? You know, the pros say that not letting profits run is just as bad as not taking a stop loss on a losing position....oh well, all I know is that I'm $2.225k richer right now and it feels good.

Thursday Morning Update...

Alright, so I'm currently up about $4k on my YM trade. Now, how in the world do I manage this trade so that I don't miss out on the potential further downside and at the same time, make sure that I don't lose back a chunk of my profits? I've been asking myself that question for the past 24 hours. Obviously, I think that we're going much lower, but what if we go up to 11400 before going lower? I'd be kicking myself for not locking in more than $2k in profits. I could always reshort higher, right? I was considering just walking away from my computer for the entire day, but there's no chance that I could do that. If I were sitting at my computer yesterday, it's a lock that I would've probably have sold half of my short position after we broke the morning highs. Luckily I was in my car.

You know, I think the best idea is to lock in at least half of the profits and then let the other half run and put a stop loss on it. I'm so torn right now. It's just seems so easy for me to sell here and take profits. Too easy, which means that it's probably the wrong decision. If this trade was in my swing portfolio where I wasn't watching every tick, then there's no way that I would be selling right here. Oh man... I guess, at least I'm not on the other side trying to figure out when to take a loss on a losing position. This is just as agonizing though. Maybe not "just as agonizing", but definately still very painful....in a good way.

Alright...let's do some quick analysis on the market. The TICK has traded between 400 and -500 this morning, which puts us in neutral territory. The TRIN is trending slightly higher and is above 1, which is slightly bearish. And the VIX is trending higher, which is slightly bearish.

As far as price action goes...we had another big gap down this morning. If you look at the daily chart of QQQQ, you'll notice that we closed at the high of the day on Tuesday and then gapped down big yestday, leaving all of those longs who bought the breakout sitting on big losing positions. This was exactly what I was expecting to happen. I've been talking about this shit for the past 2-3 weeks. Only time will tell whether we tank big from here or not. I'm still expecting a lot of downside action...

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Done for the day...$0

Needless to say, I didn't trade at all today. I was on the road for most of the day. I left AC at 11:00am and got home around 3:30pm. I'm still holding my 10 YM contracts right now. I'm certain that market is headed lower, but what I'm not certain about is whether we're going to make new highs one last time before we go down or not. The next two days will tell us more. If we go higher one last time, then we could do 100 to 150 ticks easily. I may end up selling my YM contracts in after hours today and just wait to see what develops tomorrow morning. At worst, I will lose 10-20 ticks, right?

Back from AC...

Just got back from AC. You guys probably thought that I blew up again. I decided to stay in AC last night because I wasn't going to be able to make it back in time for my fantasy football draft if I tried to leave last night. So, I just did it over skype and IM. It worked out just fine. Definately not as fun sitting in the war room with the other players though.

Anyways, it's nice to see that the YM has dropped to the lows of the day. Right now, I'm not really sure what I want to do. Volume is very weak on today's down move, but I love the fact that we're closing at the lows of the day. Love it. Tomorrow will be the day that tells us where we're going in the near term. I've seen all too many times where we have a false trend change like yesterday and today only to gap up the following day and make a new run to higher highs. I don't think that the latter will happen, but it's definately a possibility, which I really can't ignore. I've got a nice 55 tick gain on my 10 contracts of the YM right now. I hate not taking partial profits, but I hate missed money even more. My gut is telling me that we're going lower, but the little discipline that I have in me is telling me to take half off of the table. I've got 19 minutes to decide.

And look at RIMM too. -2.4% today. Schweet....

Wednesday Morning Update...

Well...the YM gapped down almost 50 points this morning! I expected this to happen yesterday, but I'll take it today as well. Looking at the market internals, the TICK is in bearish territory trading between 200 and -792 and the TRIN is trending higher which is also bearish. I'd like to see carnage today. Who knows if it'll happen or not, but we need a carnage day in order to go lower. Today's gap down was a good start though because it didn't allow the longs to get out at the close yesterday and now they're "stuck" up top.

I'm still holding onto my 10 contracts of the YM from 11455. I'm also short 300 shares of RIMM at $81.71 and I''ve got 10 DIA Oct $114 Puts at $1.50, 10 DIA Sep $112 Puts at $1.95 and 10 DIA Sep 113 Puts at $0.45. Let's see what happens...

BTW...whoever sent that link to the Zurich Axioms ... thanks. Good stuff.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Done for the day...-$1,405.10

Ewe. That's all I gotta say. I dropped about 28 ticks on the YM, which is not awful, but my trade size made it look awful. Obviously I'd much rather have a profit than a loss, but I was prepared to take a loss if I had to. I knew what I was getting into.

I know that my trading style is very aggressive and I've tried to grind it out, $250 here, $250 there, but I thought about it and that's not what I'm here for. Yeah, I may go broke trying to become "filthy rich" from the stock market, but one thing that I know for certain is this...if I don't try, then there's absolutely no chance that it'll ever happen.

I don't know...some of you may say that I'm "reckless" and "undisciplined" which is so very true. I'm not disagreeing with you guys, but I feel as though I have to be a little "reckless" and "undiscipined" to get to where I want to go.

I'm sure a lot of you know who George Soros is. He's one of the wealthiest people in the world. Do you know what made him famous? Check this out from Wikipedia:


On Black Wednesday (September 16, 1992), Soros became immediately famous when he sold short more than $10bn worth of pounds, profiting from the Bank of England's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency. Finally, the Bank of England was forced to withdraw the currency out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and to devalue the pound sterling, and Soros earned an estimated US$ 1.1 billion in the process. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England."

The Times October 26, 1992, Monday quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell."

In 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused Soros of using the wealth under his control to punish ASEAN for welcoming Myanmar as a member. Later, he called Soros a moron. [3] Thai extremists have called Soros "an economic war criminal" who "sucks the blood from the people".


You know what his net worth is now? 11 billion dollars. I'm not saying that I'm George Soros, but do you think that shorting $10bln worth of pounds was "reckless" and "undisciplined"? What I'm getting at is, successful people don't get to where they want to go by not taking a risk.

- Bill Gates quit out of Harvard to start his own company.
- Warren Buffet knocked on the door of Geico's headquarters until a janitor allowed him in just so that he could talk to the Vice President about the company.
- Mark Cuban got fired from his job because he chose to close a software deal instead of opening the store that he was working at, on time.

Financially speaking, losing all of my money in my daytrading account is not going to significantly impact my life in one way or another. It would suck to lose all of that money and it would probably force me to quit daytrading, but my life will not be over because of it. To be honest, I'd be more disappointed by the way that I traded versus the money that I lost. My goal is to become one of the best at what I do and make a lot of money while I'm doing it. If that means taking a little more risk than I should be, then I'm gonna do it.

Only time will tell what happens to me and my daytrading account. If I make a million or two from trading, then I'll look back at these days and laugh. If I don't, then I'll still look back and laugh...

Bill Gates

Covered 10 YM at 11483 for -$1,400

I'm gonna hold the other 10 contracts for tomorrow. I might sell another 5 in after hours...we'll see. What a frustrating day. I still think that the risk/reward to the downside is much better right here though. If we go up 100 points from here, then I'm prepared to take a $5k loss. I'm hoping for more than 200-300 points to the downside though. I just gotta tell myself not to worry about the intra-day action. I should just consider this a swing trade with a hundred point stop.

Hopefully, us shorts won't get squeezed out before heading lower. I thought that Friday was the squeeze day, but apparently it wasn't. A big gap down tomorrow would be the perfect setup.

Short 10 YM at 11457

F the YM.

Sick

I gotta keep telling myself not to be scared. The daily chart of DIA is screaming overbought. The McClellan Oscillator is at 156 and change. CCI is at 129. RSI is nearing the 70 mark. We almost always get a pullback from these levels. I'd have to say about 95% of the time. I have a feeling that we're not going to sell off until the last hour of the day though until all of the shorts have given up. Sometimes trading makes me so sick to my stomach!

Short 5 YM at 11456

We're going down dammit.

Short 5 YM at 11453

Definately jumping the gun here. I should wait for the breakdown first.

Tuesday Morning Update...

I'm still up in AC right now. However I'm heading back home for my live fantasy football draft tonight. I got crushed playing $5/$10 NL. I paid three players off which costed me almost $1000 each time. And then I got sucked out of three huge pots worth $1200, $800, $1400. The suckouts I'm not too worried about, but paying players off when I'm beat is no excuse. I GOTTA learn to lay down those big hands when I'm beat. Anyways here are my totals:

-$3400 playing $5/$10 NL
+$260 playing $2/$5 NL
-$400 playing Blackjack

Yeah...I should've just stayed home this weekend...hah. I'm so bitter that I lost playing poker. It's like two steps forward and one step back. Every time I think that I'm starting to become a good poker player and then I make a stupid call and donk off all of my chips to someone. This crap makes me second guess how good I really am. I'm trying to come back next week sometime...hopefully, I'll have better results the next time.

As far as the market goes today. I love this gap down this morning. Even this very small one is good. And right now, the market has been in a sideways consolidation for about 30 minutes. All we need is a downside breakout and we're golden. The market internals aren't telling us crap right now...

Die YM, DIE BEATCH.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Done for the week...-$2,256.98

Not a good week. Next time we're in the slow season, I'm taking the week off. Live and learn.

Done for the day...-$217.60

Yeah...I lost exactly 7 ticks on the YM today on 5 contracts. Not sure why I was trading anyways, but I guess I had an itchy trigger finger. It's nice to see that the YM is closing very close to it's HOD. This sets us up for a nice gap down on Tuesday? We'll see.

Now, it's time to tally up all of my losses this month. I'm pretty sure my daytrading account has a nice 4 digit loss, but I think my swing portfolio has a nice 4 digit gain as well. My guess is that I'm down maybe $1k-$2k for this month. I should have all of my stats updated by September 5th or 6th when my Interactive Broker stats are updated on their side.

So, it's going to be very nice long weekend for me. I'm heading up to AC on Sunday to play some poker and maybe some blackjack. I'll be staying until Tuesday afternoon because my fantasy football live draft is on Tuesday night which I have to be back for. If anybody is heading up to AC this weekend, hit me up and I'll be happy to grab some drinks or something. I'll be up there with a few friends. It should be fun.

This week in the market has been nothing but a bore and I need me some gambling action. I'm so glad that the NFL season starts soon because I'm going to see if I can make me some real money in sportsbetting this season.

Alright everyone...have a super duper good long weekend.

In 10 DIA September $113 Puts at $0.45

I couldn't help myself. Either I'm right or I'm wrong. Max risk is only $450 on this trade.

In 10 DIA October $114 puts at $1.50

Worst comes to worst, we consolidate here. I don't see that much further upside unless we consolidate first.

Buying some DIA Oct $114 puts...

Call me crazy, but I'm going to buy some DIA October $114 puts at the close. Probably 10 contracts which will cost me about $1,450. I may go for the $115 puts...I'm not sure yet. Yeah, I'm still holding onto my September $112 puts, which I'm down about $1700 on right now, but when and if this market falls, I should be able to make it all back in one quick sweep of the legs...

RIMM

I'm already short, but if I had the balls, I'd be shorting even more here. This looks like a very attractive short because it's overbought on both the daily and weekly charts and we've just recently formed a bearish divergence on RSI (higher prices, but lower RSI). Not only that, but there's quite a bit of resistance up here. Not to mention that I think the overall market is due for a correction up here.



DIA

I know that this formation isn't complete yet and usually, it's not wise to try to catch tops, but just take a look at what's developing. First off, the McClellan Oscillator is forming a lower high while prices are forming higher highs. That's a bearish divergence. Next, we have the 2004 QQQQ chart, which looks very similar to the one below and we know what happened to QQQQ in the ensuing months....we went on to make new multi-month lows. Another thing to note is the declining volume on this latest surge. Prices have been going up, but volume has been going down. The Channel Commodity Index is also nearing overbought levels. RSI is coming close to overbought, but there's no clear trend from that indicator yet.

Like I said earlier, it's not the best idea to fight the trend, which is up right now, especially considering the fact that if we were to continue higher from here, it would pretty much nullify everything that I said above. However, with that said, we can't ignore what the chart below is telling us, which is that the trend could be changing soon. All good traders wait for a confirmation signal before entering into a trade. Our confirmation signal to short would be if the DOW had a big bearish day with decent volume some time next week. This is what I'll be looking for...

No trades for me today yet.