party poker

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Done for the day...-$38.20

What a waste of a day.

Covered 500 HANS at $27.68 for -$52.50

I'm not sure why I'm sitting here wasting my time in this motionless market.

Covered 500 HANS at $27.37 for +$105

Man..this actually looks pretty bearish because we've been consolidating in the bottom 1/3rd of this last drop for about 15 minutes now...it's only a matter of time before we break lower and head towards the lows of the day...

But I'm being disciplined here and I'm taking half off of the table to lock in some of the profits. I think according to Pristine.com, I'm supposed to take 1/3rd off here, then trail another 1/3rd above the 5-minute pivot high. And then the last 1/3rd, I'm not sure when I'm supposed to sell that. That shows you how much attention I pay towards details...

Short 1000 HANS at $27.58

50% retracement from this morning's drop.

Covered 500 RIMM at $82.74 for -$165

What a joke! I saw this shit coming from a mile away. It was a breakdown failure and w-bottom on lighter volume. My only regret was not sellilng when I recognized the pattern. I told myself that I'd let my stop determine my fate. Oh well...no biggie. I want some action, but I'm not getting anything...

Short 500 RIMM at $82.41

Stop above $82.65.

Mansion Sportsbook Promotion

Alright, so the football season is starting in a week. I don't normally talk about all of the sportsbook promotions out there, but this one seems too good to be true and I don't know how often something like this will come around. Basically, the deal is simple...you wager $1,100 on Pittsburg to win against the spread on September 7th and if they don't cover, then you get your money back. If they win, then you win $1,000. It's a no brainer right? Especially if you hedge your bet in another sportsbook, which I am not condoning, but at the same time, I can't stop you from doing it either (nudge, nudge).

The site is called Mansion.com. They're relatively new in the online sportsbook/casino/poker world, but from the looks of their site, they seem to have their shit together. This promotion is listed under the "Promotions" link on their front page. The terms and conditions of this promotion are listed in that link as well.

Now, if you want to do this through boogster.com then we'll give you an additional 9000 boogster points ($90 cash value) on top of this, but you will have to make an additional $500 in wagers in the sportsbook or play around 150-300 raked hands in the poker room in order to get the $90. Just follow the instructions on signing up from this link.

And if you want to hedge your bet, then you can sign up to Sports Interaction through boogster.com and receive an additional 10,000 boogster points ($100 value) for the signup. Hedging your bet on the Pittsburg game will fulfill the wagering requirements for this site, so all you have to do is sign up, place the wager, and then you can cash out if you want.

Since a lot of you guys are probably daytraders or poker players who have never signed up through boogster.com before, I'm going to make this deal even sweeter by offering an additional 5000 boogster points ($50 value), so long as you sign up to both sites before September 7th and you enter the code "blog promo" in the additional info field on the boogster registration form.

There's no chance that you'll be able to find a better deal anywhere else. Tell your friends about it too. And if I were you, I'd take advantage of this promo asap because they could pull the promo at any time. I don't understand why they're doing it in the first place. The only thing that I can think of is the fact that the Superbowl Champions are 1-15 against the spread (I think) in the past 16 seasons in their first game of the new season, so they're not expecting Pitt to cover.

Man...I am soooo ready for the football season to start! Let me know what you guys think.


added 11:48am
Sorry, I botched the logic behind the promo. There's really no need to hedge your bet because you will breakeven either way. However, if you hedge your bet, then you are switching the wager to the other side. Instead of wanting Pitt to cover, you'll be rooting for Miami to cover. You will lose the $100 juice, but history dictates that the returning superbowl champ rarely covers in their first game of the new season.

Also, if you hedge your bet, you will get an additional $150 from boogster.com.

added 10:57pm
Alright, so there is some logic behind hedging your bet. If you bet $550 to win $500 on Miami to cover at another sportsbook, then you will win $450 regardless of the outcome of the game.

Out 5 YM at 11393 for +$84.20

Just messing around on a boring ass day. Actually, this looks like a pretty attractive long setup, as there is much support around this area...not sure why I sold so soon....oh well...

Long 5 YM at 11389

I'll give it a shot right here for a small lot. I'll give it a 10 point stop.

HANS

Keep an eye on HANS this morning. While we are still way oversold, we had a bearish consolidation after the big gap down and today, we've broken below the consolidation low. Which means that we can probably look for another short opportunity today. There is still very little support below...

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Done for the day...+$368.40

Not a very exciting day today. I could've made it a little more exciting by taking a few gambles, but I really wasn't in the mood to lose any more money today. Like I said, I'll wait for a better spot to get all of my money in. That spot will come soon enough.

Looking at the daily chart of DIA, we made a new multi-week high during the day, but failed to close above that high. I'd still like for us to close above that high, then shortly after we start turning over. As we stand right now, the McClellan Osciallator looks like it's forming a bearish divergence and rarely does the MO lie. To me, it is one of the strongest and most reliable indicators as of late. But there's no sell confirmation yet, so sit tight and enjoy the movie.

Friday's going to be a half-session, and we'll most likely NOT see a lot of action due to traders taking the long weekend off. Yeah, it's gonna be even MORE boring over the next two days. I suggest that you carry a bottle of water with you, so that you can water the grass while you watch it grow over the next two days on your trading system...

Night. I'm out.

Out 5 YM at 11394 for -$50

Maybe I just got sucked out, I'm not sure...the TICK made a new low though. I'm not taking any chances in this shit ass market.

In 5 YM at 11396

I'll sell if the TICK breaks below -181.

TradeTheMarkets.com - Leasing a seat on the CBOT

Every time I watch his videos, he teaches me something new. Did you guys know that you can lease a seat on the CBOT and CME to reduce your commissions? Apparently, you save quite a bit of money, so long as you make at least 3 round trip futures trades per day...

link


Now, an update on the markets...we're looking pretty bullish now. The TRIN has finally started to downtrend again and the TICK is hovering in between 0 and 1000. And we just broke out of our mutli-hour consolidation high. Look for resistance around the R1 line at 11409.

TICK and TRIN

TICK just went to -500, which means the trend is changing. TRIN is trending higher and about to make a new high, hovering around the 1.30 area, which is pretty bearish. Not the best idea to be long right now..

Looks like shorted RIMM a little too early...I still think that we're near the top though...

First Fantasy Football draft..

I've got my first fantasy football draft coming up here in 30 minutes. This is my "free league" with my old coworkers. Most of them know their football, but I think they do more shit talking than they have fantasy skills. I hope they're reading this too because I'm taking home the ring this season...beatches. Boogskins all the way.

Anybody got any sleepers for me?

Out 5 YM at 11417 for +$434.20

How do you like them apples?!? Nah, I'm just kidding...just letting out a little bit of aggression from the punishment over the past two weeks. This duldrom shit has humbled me.

Anyways, the multi-week high was at 11418. I'm gonna take my profits here and see what happens. We're looking bullish though. The TRIN is downtrending now and the TICK is remaining in bullish territory...

Remember, don't ever sleep on those market internals. I slept on them a few days ago when the market kept going higher and higher...

Long 5 YM at 11399

5 contracts...what a wuss...hah...call me gunshy.

Wednesday Morning Update...

Alright...so the TICK is on the bullish side this morning, but the TRIN is trending higher, which means that we're getting conflicting market internals. I really shouldn't be surprised though because the market action in the past two weeks has been nothing less than confusing to me. Definately going to have to practice my patience today. I'm not going to force anything though because I don't feel like burning another thousand bucks today...those bitches aren't getting another dime from me...

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Done for the day...-$679.45

Uhh...I don't really have much to say about today's action. Unpredictable...I guess that's the best word to describes my feelings towards the recent market action. I guess I'll have to practice my patience until volume picks up again. Damn, did I just say "patience"...I hate that word...

I'm gonna see if I can get in some poker action tonight somewhere. I need some sort of gambling action...I'm starting to twitch....is there a preseason football game on tonight?

TradingTheMarkets.com

Their analysis on this morning's action:

link

I've pretty much given up on today's trading mainly because I can't figure out which way we're going, to save my life. I'm going to do what I normally do when I'm confused...I'm going to cut down on the trading and wait for a better spot to enter the market. As much as I want to get some of my recent losses back, losing more money will make me even more bitter. So, I might as well sit tight and wait for a better spot to go all-in.

Covered 10 YM at 11337 for -$350

Frustration.

Short 10 YM at 11330

Covered 625 RIMM at $81.65 for -$212.50

Boring. I need to go get me some grub.

Covered 325 RIMM at $81.54 for -$74.75

My other 625 shares hasn't gotten filled yet. This market is so boring today. Makes me want to pull my hair out. This would've been the perfect week to head up to AC.

Covered 500 SNDK at $54.25 breakeven

I wanted to see a faster drop...no continuation.

Short 500 SNDK at $54.25

Looks like a breakout failure and 180 degree reversal. Similar to what I think is going to happen to the YM in the next few days. You should see this intraday chart. Doesn't it look familiar? Notice the breakout failure at 12:12pm.

Covered 10 YM at 11328 for +$50

Mini short squeeze? Not really sure. Notice how we broke above the highs to take out all of the short stops...bastards...

Short 10 YM at 11329

We should head down to about 11308.

Short 1000 RIMM at $81.31

This is in my daytrading account. The YM just broke through the downside of its bearish ascending wedge pattern. And it looks like the S&P and Nasdaq are following suit.

Short 300 RIMM at $81.74

Swing trade in my swing portfolio.

RIMM

Time to short?



Bearish divergence. I think it's time to short a few hundred shares in my swing portfolio again.

Tuesday's Market Direction...

My initial analysis says that we're going higher today, but from all of the comments and that dude from TradingTheMarkets.com, I guess I've learned to let the market internals dictate which direction to trade for the day. It makes sense. If it makes sense, then I'm all for it.

What I know from past experience is that I almost always lose money on days like yesterday. Days in which indicators are pretty much useless because the market internals are so bullish or bearish. In the future, I need to recognize these situations, so that I don't lose money on them again.

Looking back on Friday's action and yesterday's action. Both days started out the same, where we gapped slightly lower then ran straight up for about 45 minutes. However, in Friday's action, after the 45 minute high, we retraced lower all the way into the close. Yesterday, we made a new high after 45 minutes and continued higher throughout the rest of the day. So, the question is, how do we determine whether the we're going to continue higher or lower throughout the rest of the day? Well, looking at the TICK, I noticed that in Friday's action, we had a reading of -500 at 10:22am. Whereas, yesterday, we barely broke below the 0 line on the TICK for the entire day. The -500 TICK reading on Friday was just a warning sign that the market was not as strong as we had anticipated and that we should've sold our long position if we were long.

The thing is this...I did the exact same thing on Friday as I did yesterday. I shorted close to the high around 10:15am on both days. In one instance, we went higher and in another, we went lower. Both markets LOOKED strong. The difference was in the TICK reading. Next time, I will try not to make the same mistake.

Okay, let's make some friggin money today.

Last Friday's intra-day chart


Yesterday's intra-day chart

Monday, August 28, 2006

Done for the day...-$1,713.60

Okay, so I made a few trades without posting them. Needless to say, they were almost all bad ones. I just didn't want to read any more comments about my trades, especially when I'm in the trade. Normally I post them in near real time, but I was in a little bit of a sour mood today. It doesn't help that I have to post this big loss on top of that. What's done is done though. I really can't, nor should, blame anyone for my bad trades though, except for myself...

You know, I don't know what it is, but I've been a little bit scared lately...usually, I'm pretty confident when I enter a trade, but over the past few sessions, I've been so damn hesitant. This is not good. Perhaps it's because I'm not really getting any good setups? Instead, I've been basically gambling on my trades and forcing them. That's why there's been a lack of confidence? I really don't know what it is, but I do know that confidence is key.

3 more trading days till the end of the month. I think I'm either slightly down or breakeven right now for the month. WTF? All of this hard work and nothing to show for it! That's what's so damn lovely about this game. There's no chance that I'm stopping until I get me that Porsche Carerra GT...paid for all in cash.

TradeTheMarkets.com

This guy explains today's market action to perfection:

link

DIA vs. 2004 QQQQ

Perhaps today is what I've been waiting for? The first chart is of the Nasdaq in 2004. The second chart is of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF today.




Volume is so weak today, yet we're up over 80 points! Breakouts that lack volume are NOT real breakouts. Like I said, we take out all of the stops above on low volume, then we drop like a brick. I guess we can look at the McClellan Oscillator for confirmation. If we make a higher high in price, but a lower high in the McClellan Oscillator, then that will be our signal to short the hell out of this puppy. The DIA October $113 puts look pretty attractive right now.

Covered 10 YM at 11356 for breakeven

I've been such a wuss lately. Maybe it's because I have absolutely no idea where we're going in the short term? No point in flipping coins to see who wins....

Short 10 YM at 11356

Time for a retracement...I gotta go with my read...

Covered 10 YM at 11336 for -$350

Man, this bitch is overbought. I wouldn't even feel comfortable buying here. I'd rather wait for the retracement, which hasn't come yet.

Short 10 YM at 11329

Just for a scalp. It's better to be buying the dips today, but we're way overbought right now.

Today's market action...

Well...the YM looks like it's in a descending triangle pattern to me. Until we get a break of one of these trendlines, it going to be the same old stuff today.



As far as stocks...I'm watching SNDK for a possible short. It's way overbought here. And I'm sure the shorts felt the pain last Thursday and Friday and most of them have already covered. So, it's time. I don't think that we'll get a lot of action to the downside today, but over the next few days, we should be able to make some money on the short side. Perhaps a nice little swing trade.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

NFL Challenge 2006

Come on guys...join up! It's fun, it's free, and we're giving away a whole bunch of free shit, including a souped up Dell laptop to the winner. Last year's winner won a 42" Panasonic Plasma TV.

NFL Challenge 2006

Trust me, it's like no other NFL game that you've ever played because you actually get to place wagers like a real sportsbetting site. It's not like those stupid suicide pools, or king of the hill pools or those pick'em games where the winners are always people who know nothing about football. In NFL Challenge, only the best handicappers will win.

Once the NFL season starts, you'll hear me yapping about it in my blog, so you might as well join up to see what the yapping is all about. BTW...tell your friends about it too.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Done for the week...-$95.61

Ehh...the week started off nice with my RIMM short and then it just got worse and worse as the week progressed. If only I would've stopped trading after Monday! :) Hindsight is 20/20. I'm out.

Done for the day...-$283.20

I gave up on trading today. Mainly because I wanted to put this week behind me and go through the weekend with any more losses in my mind. And also because the ECBOT stopped taking trades at around 2:40pm EST due to exchange problems. They're gonna reopen at 4:00pm EST.

Anyways...8 minutes till the close. I was pretty much done with the day at around 12:00pm today. Time to hit Gordon Biersch for a few brewskies or 10...I'm out.

Daytradeteam.com lifetime subscription?

So...who else signed up for DTT's lifetime subscription?

Out 3 YM at 11307 for -$22.50

This is boring. I don't really want to call it a day though.

Bored...

Anybody else bored?

Out 7 YM at 11300 for -$297.50

Still holding 3 contracts because it didn't get filled. I thought that we were going higher, but I guess I'm wrong??

In 5 YM at 11306

50% retracement almost complete.

In 5 YM at 11311

I botched the exit on that short position. We should retrace back up to 11324 from here.

Covered 5 YM at 11322 for +$50

Peanuts. We have a few topping tails, but we couldn't even retrace 40% from that last run. 40% would put us at 11316, 50% would put us at 11308 and 60% would put us at 11300. Let's see how far we retrace before moving higher.

Looks like we have a 40% retracement...

Covered 5 YM at 11323 for +$25

Taking some off of the table. I obviously entered at the wrong time, as the YM went up to 11340 before retracing. We're holding up pretty strong though and the TICK is staying within the 0 to 1000 range, which means that there's definately a bullish bias in the market today. I wanna see how we react to this nice early morning runup, then I think we'll know more about where this market is going for the rest of the day.

Short 10 YM at 11324

Should be a little bit of resistance here, but the overall market bias should be to the upside today...

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Done.

What an emotional roller coaster! Yesterday, I was kicking and screaming and yelling like a little kid. And then I actually crawled up into a little ball in the corner of my condo and cried for a little bit. Sike...there was no kicking involved, but the rest is true. I'm just kidding. In all honestly though, I felt so bitter yesterday...so bitter that I traded so poorly, undisciplined, and sooo recklessly. I dropped $4,500 yesterday! I tried to make the font smaller, but that was the smallest. Can you imagine I how I felt? Not well, that's for certain. Anyways, it's too painful to write a blog when I get punished like that, but at the same time, this blog keeps me honest with myself because I know that whatever I do, I'll have to put it out there for everyone to read.

So, I made $3,079.55 back today. But I'm still down about $1,400 over the past two days, which puts me at about breakeven for the week. Why is it that when I need to make money, I do, but when I want to make money, I can't? I mean, how often do I have +$3k days in my daytrading account? Rarely. Especially on days in which the trading range was only 68 ticks! But it was as if I was on a mission today...a mission to prove myself. Perhaps it was just dumb luck that I got some of my money back? I don't know. Whatever it is, I wish that I have more days like today. I wish that I could have this same mentality day in and day out. Yesterday, I felt scared, as seen from my early morning trades...today, I was confident and fearless. Yesterday, I lost money...today, I made money. Perhaps there's some sort of correlation in there somewhere? I often say that I'll have it all figured out one of these days, but in all honesty, I don't think I'll EVER have it all figured out...

On another note, I signed up for the lifetime membership to DTT. They're charging $799 for current subscribers, so I said "why not?". I mean, I'm basically paying $799 for another set of eyes on the market...how cheap is that? Besides, I think that they're a good bunch of guys who run a good business. I like dealing with good people and good businesses. Don't tell anyone, but I actutally did a few PSO and ECD offers back in the days, but it was mainly to check out the competition...hah.

Okay...I can sleep somewhat peacefully tonight again. Last night, I was sitting on 10 contracts of the YM, hoping and praying for a gap up this morning. I'm free of positions today though. Tomorrow is a brand new day...let's see if I can make it a positive one...have a good evening.

No Volume...

There's just not enough volume in today's market to convincingly say that the downtrend has officially started. Until we see some real volume, I still expect the market the make a new high to take out all of the short stops, then we go for broke to the downside...



Look at the volume that accompanied the start of the downtrend in the 2004 QQQQ chart.

Trading the markets...

BTW...check out this video from one of the guys over at Tradingthemarkets.com. Looks like he's thinking what I'm thinking...we make a new high to take out the short stops, then we go lower...

link

68.4%

Got back 68.4% of my losses from yesterday. Phew...makes me feel a little bit better. If I can get it all back today, then we'll just act like yesterda never happened...

Paying taxes for e-mini trades...

I've always wondered what kind of tax implications there are for e-mini futures trading. Well, here's the answer:

Link

Looks like futures trading is not taxed at the same percentage as regular securities trading. Short term securities trades are taxed at 35% whereas futures are taxed at a lower rate, 23%?? I don't really understand all of the tax mumbo jumbo in the link...maybe someone can help me out?

YM Crazy...

I've been scalping the YM like crazy. 10 contracts here, 20 contracts there. Why is it so much easier to lose money than it is to make money? Seriously, I feel like I've been in the construction business for the past few hours. I've gotten about half of my losses back from yesterday...there's still more work to be done. Damn, this sucks...I hate working from the ground up...

Mini blowup...

I had a mini blowup yesterday afternoon. Let's just say that I started doing my 20 contract YM thing left and right. I must've mistook my mouse button for a joystick, because if you were watching me, it sure looked like I was playing a game. Like that old school Track and Field game at the arcade. Long, short, long, short...it wasn't pretty. I'm actually a little bit embarrassed by how much I lost yesterday. You should've seen me screaming at my monitor. I'm sure it would've been quite hilarious to an onlooker. Anyways, I'm going to try to make it back today, then I'll come clean with my losses.

Yesterday afternoon probably ranks in my top 5 of my bonehead moves of all time, with my GOOG trade being number 1 and that $6.175k YM trade being number 2. I should seriously make a list...

Okay...focus Danielson. Casino Market opens in 8 minutes.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Out 5 YM at 11291 for -$175

Definately getting chopped up here. Probably best to sit back and relax for the rest of the day...

In 10 YM at 11298

Let's see if I can make some money on the long side now.

Covered 5 YM at 11304 for -$100

Ehh...got stopped out. Could've had a $300 gain. I was looking for that home run again. The TICK is making higher highs though, which means that a change in trend is taking place...

Covered 5 YM at 11300 for breakeven

Gunshy today.

Short 10 YM at 11300

Stop above the pivot high at 11304.

Covered 10 YM at 11296 for +$150

Wow...we're tanking now...

Short 10 YM at 11299

Quickie..

Covered 5 YM at 11293 for -$75

It just doesn't feel right...I wanted to see a quick drop...that didn't happen, so I'm out...

Covered 5 YM at 11289 for +$25

I don't know...it just doesn't feel right. I guess I'm a little gunshy today. I'm taking half off of the table, just to be safe. My stop is above the 5-min pivot high at 11298.

Short 10 YM at 11290

Just for a scalp. No chance that I should be going long in this market because the TICK has barely surpassed 500 for the entire day. If the TICK can manage to get up to 1000 somehow, then I'm out...

Yawn...

What a boring market today. We've been in a tight trading range for about 2 1/2 hours now! Time to do some studying for my upcoming fantasy football draft...

Price Action vs. Technical Indicators

Okay...I didn't short this morning because RSI was low, but in retrospect, I should've noticed the price action first. One of the major rules in daytrading is to always take price action OVER technical indicators. ALWAYS. Technical indicators should only be used to improve your entry and exit points. Price action never lies.

Now, let's look at the chart of the YM from this morning:



Notice that we had a very bullish start to the morning, then around 9:50am, we started to decline. For the next 20 minutes, we retraced over 100% of the morning run...a very bearish sign. Notice that the price at the high was around 11391. And when the 100% retracement ended, the low was around 11348. So, that was a 43 point move to the downside. Now, look at the bearish consolidation that ensued over the next 45 minutes. We consolidated in the bottom 1/3rd of the big move down, which is very very bearish. Good traders should've noticed this pattern and should've prepared themselves to short below the consolidation low at 11341. At 10:45am, we broke that low. Over the next 10 minutes, we has a minor consolidation. This would've been the perfect time for me to short, except I looked at the RSI and noticed that it was very low...which dissuaded me from entering a short position. In hindsight, I should've shorted. My stop would've been above the consolidation high at 11357 and my target would've been a 43 point move from the start of the new downtrend, which would've put it at 11309.

How easy it is to dissect a chart AFTER the fact. I've got to learn to take price action over my technical indictors. I think I'm relying too much on them. Same with yesterday. We had a double top in the morning in which I should've sold my long position after the break, but I failed to do so. We all know what happened after that...I took a 52 tick loss on that trade!!

Okay...let's make some money!!!

Out 5 YM at 11311 for +$150

Just for a quickie.

Out 5 YM at 11307 for +$50

Ehh...probably not a good idea to be holding 10 long contracts in this downtrending market.

Long 10 YM at 11305

We're just ridiculously oversold here. I'm just in this for a bounce.

T.J. Duckett

Nice...we just landed T.J. Duckett:

Link

Can't wait for the football season to start. The Skins go to the show this year.

Nothing...

I've got nothing right now. Anybody have a play out there for me?

RMBS

I just noticed that it gapped up big this morning. Pristine.com calls this type of setup a bullish mortgage play. Well, not really, since we didn't actually gap up above yesterday's high at $12.55, but it's close enough. Look for a pullback though. Money can be potentially be made on the long side today for RMBS....

Hurting...

I need about 4 more hours of sleep. Anyways...part of me wants this market to go higher, just so that I'm certain that a top is near. Right now, if we drop from here, I'm going to be a little suspect of this topping formation. If we can just pop to new highs over the next two or three days, then I'll be convinced...

I guess I'm going to just play it as it comes today. The trend is my friend, right?

8 hour $2/$5 NL session...

Just finished an 8 hour $2/$5 NL session at an underground poker game. -$800. What a bad run of cards! One hand, I had pocket queens against pocket kings...another hand I flopped a pair of queens with an Ace kicker and the other guy had pocket kings...and then, in two other hands, I got sucked out on the river when we got it all in!! It was an ugly night. I must say that in the first two hands above, I laid both of them down with about a $150 in losses for each hand. It sucks flopping top pair when your opponent has an overpair, but I did make the big laydown when I was beat, so I think I played the hands well. It's funny how a few hands in the whole night makes the difference in whether you come out as a winner or a loser. So, basically, I just blew all of my AC winnings in this game. Oh well.

4 hours and 45 minutes until the market opens. I need to get me some sleep....

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Put to Call Ratio

Check out the put-to-call ratio:



The Index Put/Call Ratio is generally considered the "smart money" and the Equity Put/Call Ratio is generally considered the "dumb money". The last time the Total Put/Call Ratio got up to the 1.15 area was on August 4th, when the DOW began a 200 point slide. Perhaps today is the day that starts the slide? Whatever happens, one thing is for certain...the "smart money" betting on further downside action. I'm not sure about you, but I think I'll stick with the "smart money".

Quit for the Day...-$725.20

It could've been a lot worst. One of my problems over the past two days has been the fact that I've been looking for those "home run" trades instead of those quick scalps like I normally do. That's a problem because I'm trading using the 2-min charts. 2-min charts should only be used for scalping, not intra-day swing trading, like I've been attempting to do. That's what the 15-min and 60-min charts are for.

Also, I need to get over my stubborness of taking a loss. Stubborness is probably the absolute worst characteristic that a daytrader can possess. I guess another one of my problems is that I'm not really in this "game" to grind it out and to make money to pay my rent. Fortunately, I already have a primary source of income that takes care of that stuff. With that said, to be brutally honest, my ultimate goal is to become filthy rich from daytrading. I see this is a problem because I feel as though I need to take bigger risks in order to get to where I want to go. I guess the key is to find the balance between obtaining my goal and assuming a smaller risk...if someone finds that balance, then please do let me know...

Have a good day.

Covered 10 YM at 11370 for +$150

Hit and run. I'm pretty sure that this is considered gambling.

Short 10 YM at 11373

Just for a quickie.

Out 5 YM at 11348 for -$1,300

Here's the big one. Live by the sword and die by the sword. Take my stops, TAKE MY STOPS, TAKE MY STOPS!!! I might have to pull a Glenn and tape my trading rules to my monitor. I'm willing to do whatever it takes to make me become the best trader ever...

Out 10 YM at 11341 for +$150

I'm clawing my way back. It shouldn't be this way though.

In 10 YM at 11338

Just for a quick scalp.

Covered 10 YM at 11346 for breakeven

Don't worry, there's still a big loss coming from those 5 contracts that I have at 11400. Ughh...

As much as I hate using hard stops, I think that I may have to look into using them or else one of these days, I'm gonna get myself hurt.

Self destructing...

I am self-destructing here...wtf is going on? This is what I get for trading like an idiot today! Ignoring stops, trading too many contracts, etc. Discipline, discipline!!!

In 10 YM at 11346

I obviously have no clue what I'm doing today! Oh man...it's one of those days again!

Out 15 YM at 11362 for +$375

Doing crazy stuff again.

In 15 YM at 11357

Covered 5 YM at 11370 for -$175

Man...we just fell off of a cliff...what in the world?

In 5 YM at 11377

Looks like a bullish divergence to me in a strong market. I'm in for a trade...

Out 10 YM at 11383 for +$250

I'm gonna get out of my other 5 contracts soon...it's lunchtime.

In 10 YM at 11378

Ehh...didn't want to do this, but...averaging down...

Trader Psychology...

Often times, when trying to decide on which side of the market to be on, I ask myself, "what are the bulls and bears thinking at this exact moment?". Well, I asked myself that question last night. From reading various blogs on the internet, mainly Tim Knight's blog, I can say that the bears are probably feeling the pain right now, but not enough pain to make them jump ship just yet. Imagine if I were still holding my 10 short contracts of the YM from below. Every day, I'd be waiting for a dip so that I could take my loss. The problem is, we've barely retraced from the lows set a week ago. Every dip has been bought. The bears have got to be getting a little nervous. If I were still holding, I'd be nervous as crap.

Now, the bulls. My dad is a "swing trader"...well, kind of. He owns his own business and like most financial savvy investors out there, he occasionally makes a trade during working hours, when he's not busy. I consider him to be the "average investor". Right now, he's a bull. You know what stocks he has right now? Nothing. All cash. Yeah...he sold everything on this latest runup. Now, I know for a fact that he's probably looking at this market wondering why he's not in it. He's going to "miss the huge run up". That's my guess as to what he's thinking. Within a day or two, he's going to put his cash to work and reenter this market.

Now, what happens when the shorts cover and the guys who are sitting on the sidelines with cash start buying? Well, we have a short squeeze. That's my guess as to what's going to happen over the next few days. The shorts are going to finally give up, the bulls are going to put their cash to work and the professional traders (institutions and OEX traders) will be shorting the crap out of this market. Guess what I'm going to be doing?

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.74 for +$90

Winner #2 from DTT. I'm gonna play all of their picks today and see what happens. Maybe I'll make like $200!

Out 1000 MSFT at $26.19 for +$20

I finally picked a DTT winner! For a whopping $20. What a joke.

Long 1000 QQQQ at $38.64

Boring day. DTT pick.

Long 1000 MSFT at $26.16

DTT pick. Honestly, I'm just buying this for fun because I'm bored. How many professional daytraders do you know that buy stocks just for fun? I'm so bad. Whatever.

Long 5 YM at 11400

It looks like it's just a matter of time before we breakout...

Today's Market Direction...

Yesterday, I was pretty certain that we were going lower, at least in the early part of the trading day. Today, I'm not as certain. Days like today are the days in which I usually lose money because I'm not really sure about the market direction. When I'm not sure about the market direction, I tend to buy the dips, when I should be shorting into strength and vice versa. At least I'm aware of my weaknesses, huh? The second step is to fix these weaknesses so that I can become even more profitable.

Looking at my market internal indicators (TRIN, TICK, VIX), it looks like it's going to be a bullish day. The TRIN is trading at 0.77, which generally means to buy the dips. It's still early, but the TICK has traded between -200 to 600, which is somewhat bullish. The VIX isn't giving us much help right now. And then, of course, in the 2004 QQQQ chart, the QQQQ went up for two straight days after the day like yesterday.

I guess, I'm buying on the dips today? Note that the multi-week high on the YM sits at 11418. We're trading at 11396 right now.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Done for the day...+$2,265.60

I expected the YM to close at or near its low of the day...instead it closed at its high. WTF does this mean? I have no idea. Perhaps we get one more consolidation day before making a new multi-week high? Whatever happens, I know that one thing is for certain....we are nearing an intermediate term top. Bash me if you want, "why do you keep fighting the trend?"...call me a pessimist if you want...I don't care. I make money by predicting the future of the stock market using technical analysis. I think I'm pretty decent at what I do. My analysis says that we're going lower in the upcoming weeks. I think it's going to be a great opportunity to make a ton of money on the short side, assuming that I'm right.

For those of you in intermediate term long positions, get out of em, or else you will feel the pain in a month or two. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Only time will tell whether I'm right or wrong. Hopefully, it'll be the former and not the latter.

Have a good day.

Covered 5 YM at 11382 for -$575

One of these days taking my stops will be automatic. A no-brainer. Until then, I'm going to have to face the agony of holding onto a losing position because I didn't take my stop. I think if I took my stops like I'm supposed to, then I'd be a lot less stressed out when I'm trading. Not taking my stops probably accounts for 75% of my trading related stress. Sigh.

I hate ending the day with a loss. It makes me so bitter. Soooo bitter. Now I gotta wait a whole friggin day to get my $575 back.

Virginia Tech Shooting Suspect Caught!

Police scanner in the VT area:

Scanner link

They got him in cuffs right now...

Virginia Tech Shooting..

Not sure if anybody is following this story, but it's my old school. Scary. The killer looks just like a student.



Va Tech Shooting Article

Short 5 YM at 11359

Sell setup right here.

Close at the low of the day?

We should close at the low of the day today, which means that I should be able to make another 20 ticks or so. I'm gonna wait for another short opportunity from here on out. I'm not going long today...

Covered 10 YM at 11346 for +$1,200

RSI is getting low on all time frames and we are nearing Friday's low at 11342. Risk/Reward is just not that great here. I could've trailed 1/3 above the 5-minute pivot high, but I hate trailing stops. We may go a little bit lower towards Thursday's low at 11331, but we are most likely nearing a bottom here. Remember, if DIA follows that 2004 QQQQ chart, then we should make new multi-week highs in the next two days. Be careful.

I'm getting some of those losses back from last week...I friggin hate 6.1k losses...hate em...let's see if I can get it all back plus more...

Covered 10 YM at 11347 for +$1150

Man...it was soo hard holding for so long. I wanted to take profits so many times.

Short 10 YM at 11371

20 contracts now.

Short 5 YM at 11373

We're going to 11331 at a minimum today.

Short 5 YM at 11366

Alright, let's give it a go. I was hoping to make some real money today, but the big gap down kinda changed my plans. Sucks!

Covered 300 RIMM at $77.90 for +$552.00

I'm taking profits here. $77.82 was last Thursday's low. I like the nice move down. There may be more, but when I get a 2 point drop in less than 10 minutes, I'm taking it.

All set...

I was all set on shorting 20 contracts of the YM after the expected gap up this morning, but it looks like we're gapping down almost 40 points instead. Now that changes things. My target was and still is around the 11331 area, which was last Thursday's low. If I were to short here, then I would put a stop a few ticks above Friday's high at 11418. My risk/reward ratio is now very close to breakeven. Not exactly what I wanted. I guess I'll have to wait until I get a nice short setup before entering my short position. 11400 should be a nice little resistance area.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Done for the week...-$3,257.20

If you count my HANS swing short trade, which I made $3,585.61 on, then I'm actually +$328.41 on the week. That one stupid YM trade cost me $6.1k. Ewe. That one sucked. But what doesn't make me go broke will only make me stronger. Let's live and learn and move on.

Monday is the start of a new week. Who's in for shorting 10 contracts of the YM for 100 ticks on Monday morning? If history repeats itself, then Monday should be a gap and crap day. We gap higher and then tank like a falling brick from a skyscraper. I can't wait. Rest up and get ready for the battle on Monday.

Have a good weekend.

Done for the day...+$490.00

A day on the plus side is a good day.

Back home now...

Just got back. This market is playing out perfectly. The YM is closing at the high of the days, which sets Monday up for a lot of money to be made on the short side. Expect a gap up on Monday, which will be shortable....Perfect.

2004 QQQQ Chart...

Here's what I'm talking about, re: 2004 QQQQ chart:


I'm not saying that we're going to follow this exact same pattern, but we can definately use it as reference. Like I said before, chart patterns tend to repeat themselves...that's how us daytraders make money in the markets.

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.45 for -$35

Yeah, I don't like it.

Looking at that 2004 QQQQ chart, the day after the doji day, we had a strong bullish day in which we closed at the high of the day. Perhaps today will be no different? This is most likely due to the fact that everybody saw yesterday as a reversal day. It only makes sense that we go up, right? Because everybody thinks that the market will go down. Does that make sense? Then, if you look at the chart on the day after the doji day, the market dropped like a brick...

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.48 for -$65

DTT didn't call for a cover, but I don't like this price action.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.42

Just realized that I needed some more share to make a decent profit on this stock. So, I've got 2000 at $38.415 now.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.41

DTT pick. 50% retracement back up after the down move.

Covered 150 SHLD at $140.23 for +$610

There are way too many August $140 puts. I don't know if this stock pins or not, but that is the Max Pain price. I doubt that it'll go any lower than that today. That's not to say that we won't go lower next week though. I'm gonna take my profits here and see what happens at the end of the day...

AC Trip Report

Here are my tallys for the trip:

$2/$5 NL : +$1533
$20/$40 limit: -$142
Tourneys: -$550

Net Total : +$841

That's about it for this trip. I didn't play a single hand of blackjack as I said I wouldn't. This was a poker trip only. I'm a bit disappointed by not cashing in any of the three tournaments that I played in, but I felt really good about the way that I played. I don't feel as though I could've done too much differently, but then again, analyzing myself doesn't really mean too much. Until I get that win or at least a cash, there's gotta something flawed in my game.

On a better note, I won another $724 last night in the $2/$5 NL game. It's a lock that I can break these games on a consistent basis. That's how easy I think it is. I think that I may venture up to the $5/$10 NL game next time...

Alright...I'm actually still here in AC, but no more gambling for me. I'm gonna try to make a quick buck or two in the markets, then get out outta here...

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Done for the day...+$495.80

Alright...I'm done for today. I'm itching to go play some poker. I'm gonna hold my SHLD short position. I've got a nice $330 gain on it right now. Hopefully, I'll have even more tomorrow.

RIMM Technical Analysis

Looking at the weekly chart of RIMM. Notice the resistance going all the way back mid 2004. This gives us our resistance line and tells us where we should be looking to short the stock.




Now...move down to the daily chart:

Notice the declining volume, high RSI (above 75) and high CCI and the slight topping tail. This is exactly what we want to see when looking for a short position. And we are nearing major resistance. Golden. For me, I'd rather wait until we get confirmation of the top before entering the swing position, but I think short here with a tight stop is okay as well. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

Short 300 RIMM at $79.74 - Swing Port

DTT just issued a swing trade alert. Short RIMM at market. I like the setup, so I'm gonna jump in on this one. Stop at $84.04.

SHLD Short...holding overnight?

I really like this SHLD short position. I think I may hold it overnight. I'll be breaking one of my rules, but I'll just treat it as a swing position...

Covered 5 YM at 11375 for +$200

Lots of volume to the downside coming in here, but RSI is crazy low right now and there should be a little bit of support here. I'll wait it out.

Covered 5 YM at 11382 for +$50

I've got 5 at an average of 11383 now.

Short 5 YM at 11390

NMGC

What a botched call this one was. But anyways, it's up 14% today on 49,000 shares. Something is going on? I'm still holding onto my 1300 shares at 7 and change. Keep an eye on it cause this one will move quickly...with absolutely no news...

update 1:41pm
Here's the news:
"NeoMagic-NMGC trades up 15% on chatter of an APPL win-Rumor ($3.00 +38c) - (theflyonthewall.com 08/17 13:35:15)"

"NeoMagic Corporation is a maker of semiconductor chips and software that enable new multimedia applications for handheld devices. We hear the stock is moving higher on speculation it will have a component in the next generation video iPod."

Short 150 SHLD at $144.31

The price finally caught up to it's downtrending 13 period MA.

Short 5 YM at 11377

Yeah...this is it. Bearish divergence in the RSI on both the 5-min and 15-min charts. We're at the two week high resistance point. So many factors pointing to lower prices. It's just a matter of timing...

Covered 5 YM at 11372 for -$75

We should've dropped by now.

Short 5 YM at 11369

Double top here?

Covered 300 PD at $90.26 for $243

I'm gonna lock in my profits here.

Covered 5 YM at 11366 for +$150

bottoming tails and a strong bounce off of the 20 period MA. TICK also went above +1000. Perhaps we're forming a double top here? I'll give it a few minutes.

Short 5 YM at 11372

We're nearing the 11375 resistance point. RSI is overbought. If we don't get a pullback in the next few minutes, I'm out.

SHLD short...

Keep a close eye on SHLD today. Looks like a breakout failure. We had a pretty bearish gap down this morning and now all of the bulls are trapped at the top. You know what this means...we should be headed lower...

Short 300 PD at $91.08

I like this bearish gap down. I'm still expecting us to close around $87.50 tomorrow.

Due for a pullback today...

Look for 11375 on the YM. There should be some resistance there, as it was the high set two weeks ago. I'm definately going to be looking for short entries today versus long entries. Watch my first trade be a long entry...hah. Always happens.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

I hate tournaments....

5 tables left in the $100+$20, with $100 add-on...I'm sitting pretty with about 30,000 in chips...well above the 18,000 average. Blinds are at 800/1600 with 300 antes. A player from early position limps in for 1,600. I have Q-T suited, so I limp in as well. The big stack to my immediate left does a min raise up to 3,200. Everybody folds to the early position player who calls the raise. I call as well. The flop comes A-K-J with two clubs. Yeah, I friggin flopped the nuts against the two big stacks at the table! The early position player immediately goes all-in. I pretend like I'm pondering a call, when in reality I'm thinking about where I'm going to spend that $6,000 when I win the tournament. I finally call. And then the big stack thinks for a little bit and reluctantly calls. They both have me covered. The early position player shows AK and the big stack shows AJ. I'm friggin golden. Only a total of 5 outs. The turn brings a Ten, which doesn't help anybody. And the river brings a.... Jack. IGHN.

This is why I hate tournaments. If I would've won that hand, then I would've had well over 1/9th of all of the chips in play. All of this hard work and one card ruined my entire tournament. I can't even play any more poker tonight because I am so friggin bitter....

Serenity now. Woosah. F*ckin sh*t mother F'er!!!!

DIA vs. QQQQ in 2004

Don't these charts look eerily familiar? The first chart is of the QQQQ back in 2004. The second one is the current daily chart of the DIA.





Now I dare you to find me a similar chart pattern in which we went higher from this point forward instead of lower. I couldn't find one. I don't even know why I'm so bearish right now...it's not like I've got 80 short positions, like my man, Tim Knight does. I hate to be in his shoes right now. As a matter of fact, my only short position is my 10 DIA Sep $112 puts. That's it.

I guess I just enjoy predicting the markets. Here's what I'm going to be looking for over the next few trading sessions:

1) Since we've gone up so much over the past 4 trading sessions, I'm looking for topping tail doji bar tomorrow. If we gap higher, then that gap should be shortable, but look for the DOW to close around where it opened the day.
2) Short term tops are rarely formed in one trading session. We had a very strong day today, which means that we'll most likely get a breather tomorrow, but we're not going to drop just like that. We need to get the bulls believing that we're going higher and the bears to start screaming in pain, then we'll pull the rug out from under the both of them. Only the strong will survive. It'll probably take at least a week to develop.
3) I'll be looking for a false breakout and 180 degree reversal over the next week. Just like in the chart of the QQQQ above. Can you imagine how the traders who bought the breakout of $37.50 felt, when the QQQQ gapped lower the following day and proceeded to make new multimonth lows? They probably felt like the bears are feeling right now.

There's no doubt that all of the market internal indicators (mainly McClellan Oscillator and CCI) that I use are overbought right now. What this tells me is that I should be very careful on the long side over the next few days. And I should be planning more to short stocks than to go long stocks.

Only time will tell where we go over the next few weeks, but I am still sticking to my original technical analysis until something changes my mind. It's just a matter of time before we drop below the June and July lows.

Done for the day...-$125

Ehh...one trade. One loser. Lemme see if I can win a couple of G's playing poker now.

Covered 5 YM at 11358 for -$125

What is going on here?

Short 5 YM at 11353

Bearish divergence in the RSI and we are nearing last week's high. Maybe I'm crazy shorting this market, but bearish divergences in the RSI rarely lie. Notice how I'm only playing 5 contracts now.

Good news and bad news...

The good news is that I get to trade for the rest of the day. The bad news is that I got knocked out of the $50+$10 buy-in tourney with nothing. There was actually a $50 add-on after the end of the second round as well...so the tourney was actually a $100+$10. Anyways, with every knockout comes a bad beat story right? Well, here's mine. I had about 14,000 chips left, blinds were at 400/800 with 100 antes. 9 players. One player in middle limped, and I push all-in from the small blind with AJ suited. The limper calls my $13k raise with KQ offsuit. What a joke right? He catches a Q on the turn, but I also have a flush draw. No help for me and I'm out.

This is what I hate about tourneys, but everybody has to deal with these same bad beats, not just me. It's all just part of the game, right? I'm willing to put in the time and effort to take my tournament game up to another level. I have no other choice if I ever want to "make millions" like those donkeys that I see on the WSOP. My goal right now is that $10,000 WPT Borgata event next month. I need to get into that event.

Alright let's see if I can make some money in the next hour and fourty minutes.

Atlantic City - Day 1 - +$874

I had a little mini-crisis up in Baltimore when I went to pick up the poker tables. It's a long story, but I ended up paying a companying $150 to do the whole customs thing for me. If you ever decide to order things from overseas, make sure that you understand that it's going to be a huge pain in the ass.

Anyways, I arrived in AC around 8:45pm. I got hooked up with a suite. Nice. I was downstairs at the $2/$5 NL table by 9:15pm. I sat and played till about 4am. A seven hour session and I ended up winning $874. Definately not too shabby. The table was ridiculously soft.

So...I played pretty well throughout the entire night. I tried to display a tight table image, but at the same time, I wanted to make my opponents have no clue what two cards I was holding. I only made one major mistake. A mistake that I've made before. I'll describe the hand:

I had AA in the small blind. There are 5 or 6 limpers, then I reraise to $35. Two players call behind me. For me, it's almost a no brainer what I do on the flop. I almost always bet out BIG to try to take the pot down right there. So the flop comes, 2-4-Q, two spades. I bet out $100 like usual. The player to my immediate left calls pretty quickly and the other player goes all-in for less than my $100. Now, I'm thinking to myself...is this player good enough to just call with trips?? He had another $290 behind him. There was almost $400 in the pot now. The turn brought a 9 of clubs. Now, I was "stuck". If I bet too much, then I would be forced to call his all-in. If I bet too little, then I would be giving him the correct odds to draw to a flush. He only had $290, so what the hell do I do? I really couldn't get a read off of him, so it was decision time for me. I decided to bet out $100. He called immediately. Now, I'm thinking...why am I dumping money to his trips like a sucker? The river brought a K of spades. He's only got $190 behind him now. I highly doubt that he had KQ. I didn't put him on a flush draw. And if I bet too little, then I'd probably call his all-in bet regardless. So, I thought for about a minute, then decided to put him all-in. He called immediately and showed 8-5 spades. That hand costed me about $450.

I kept going over this hand in my head for the next few hours. I could've put him all-in on the turn. I could've checked/folded to him on the river. Honestly, I still don't know what I could've done to avoid that disaster. In hindsight, I should've pushed him all-in on the turn. He surely would've folded. But the problem is, if he had a set, then I would've been drawing to two outs. I tell you though, most players don't just call the flop with trips. I usually just call, especially if I have position over the agressor, but most people don't. I think the next time that I'm in this situation, I have to make it real hard for my opponent to call that turn bet. Real hard.

So, that's that one hand that bugged me throughout the entire night. I ended up winning a lot because I got paid off sooo frequently. It was ridiculous. I'd hit two pairs and put $200 out there on the river and the guy would call with second pair. Then, one time, I flopped a set of 3s and make a big reraise on the turn and the guy pushes me all-in with only second pair. Crazy. It was a good night. There's a $50 buy-in tourney starting at 11am. I want to play in it, but I think I may just wait for the 7pm tourney because I do want to trade today. Although this market is barely moving this morning...

CPI Numbers...

I take it that the CPI numbers came in better than expected? I really don't know what to think about the DJIA now. From a technical standpoint, the McClellan Oscillator is hovering above 100, which usually means that we're nearing a top, but it's still trending upwards, so we may still have another day or so left in this rally. The good news about yesterday's move was that volume was very weak. RSI is not really giving us a clear indication of trend, as it is sitting at 57 right now. The CCI indicator is nearing overbought territory at 100, but it doesn't mean that we can't go higher from here.

Basically, I'm saying that the no-follow-through to the downside yesterday pretty much destroyed all of my bearish technical analysis. I don't know what to think now. The best idea is probably to sit tight and wait for a better spot...

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Done for the day...-$5,618

Gotta go.

Covered 10 YM at 11225 for -$6,175

This is not good. I don't like today's price action. The TICK is too bullish, the TRIN is too bullish, even the VIX is bullish. I have no option, but to wait it out. We could potentially gap down tomorrow due to bad CPI numbers, but that would be gambling again. My first mistake was holding overnight. My second mistake was playing too many contracts overnight. If I had 5 contracts, then I wouldn't have been AS worried about the short term fluctuation of the YM. My third mistake was not taking my stop when I should've. Is there a rule that I didn't break?

Okay...I need to roll outta here in about 45 minutes. We just got a 100 boogster.com & raketherake.com poker tables in. Ordered them from China...they cost us about $5k. They're in Baltimore right now. I gotta head up there on my way to AC to give them a check and do the whole customs thing. This is the first time that I've talked about this thing in my blog, but if you live in the D.C. area and play in local bar tournaments, then you may be playing on some of our tables. We're working in conjunction with RedWhiteandBluePoker.com to host free Poker tournaments around the city. It's gonna be sick.

I hope that our competitors aren't reading my blog because those bastards over at PSO have ridiculous amounts of money and they always try to strongarm us. Hah....just kidding, I've got nothing but respect for those guys over at PSO. They run a good business.

Alright...I need to pack and roll outta here. I'm down about $4k from this YM trade total, since I made $1600 yesterday and $700 today. Yeah, I'm bitter as hell about it because I could've taken a small loss yesterday when the YM dropped to 11105!! Oh well...live and learn.

In 10 days, it'll be the first anniversary of my first year of daytrading full-time. Although I've made some stupid mistakes (i.e. GOOG & this YM trade)...I still feel as though I can conquer this daytrading thing. It's not gonna be easy, but I'm up to the challenge, especially when I have anon1124's telling me that I'm gonna go "broke eventually". Stuff like that drive's me to become that much better of a trader. It invigorates me to put that much more effort into winning. For all of you readers out there, stick with me and we'll make money together. I guarantee it.

Time to go "check-raise some tourists". And hopefully, I'll have "mounds and mounds of chips that I can barely see over" by the end of the night. Hah. Rounders reference. I love that movie. I'm out. I'll be trading for the rest of the week, but I'll just be in a different location.


YM at 11214

We're in no man's land right now. In order for the YM to go higher this morning, we had to consolidate first. Since we gapped up this morning, we've basically been in consolidation for the entire day. Now that we've consolidated, there's a chance that we could go higher. I'm not saying that we will go higher, but there's a chance and I don't like it...

Covered 200 PD at $90.52 for breakeven

I wanted to see a faster drop to the downside. It didn't happen.

Short 200 PD at $90.56

I've got an order for another 100 shares, but it didn't get filled.

No doubt that today is a bullish day...

Look at today's market internals. Notice how the TICK has traded between 0 and 1000 for the entire day. Strong. Notice how the TRIN has remained pretty flat, but has traded way below 1.0 for most of the day. Strong. Notice how the VIX is slowly declining. Strong.



Yesterday, we had a very nice drop towards the close, but today there was absolutely no follow through. Not a good sign for my short. Unless we have a bad CPI number tomorrow morning, I don't see us dropping off in the next day or two. I will probably cover my short position pretty soon...at least 5 contracts, if not all of it.

Today's bullishness doesn't change my intermediate term stance on the DOW. I hate to say it, but my shorter term stance (1-3 days) has definately changed though...

Make your own conclusions...

Covered 10 YM at 11217 for +$700

That second lot was just for a scalp. I want to see how much strength this market actually has before I cover my 11101.5 lot.

Covered 1000 EBAY at $24.41 for -$130

One of these days, I'm actually going to pick a winner of theirs.

Short 10 YM at 11231

Another afternoon drop?

Cover YM here?

I would cover here, but my indicators are just not agreeing with the price action...

Short 1000 EBAY at $24.28

DTT pick. Looks good to me.

Looks like the YM broke yesterday's high with volume. And it looks like a W-bottom on the 2-min chart. I'm going to seriously consider covering on the next drop and perhaps even going long.

Another gap up this morning...

Why do I hold overnight? The PPI numbers came in a little lower than expected, thus the big pop this morning. I don't know if I can take another day like yesterday. If I was smart, then I would've sold before the close yesterday. You know what they say...those who don't learn from their mistakes are condemned to repeat them. Okay...whatever happens today, I think that the overnight rule is gonna be non-negotiable from now on. It's just too much of a crapshoot sometimes. There's really no need for holding. There's no need to "gamble".

Alright, the market is about to open here...

Monday, August 14, 2006

Done for the day...+$1,500

I'm still holding 10 contracts of the YM at an average of 11101.5. I still think that we're gonna go lower from here. It's just a matter of time. I didn't like this morning's gap up and run higher, but I did very much like the way we closed today. We had a sharp and steep decline that started around 12PM. and closed with just a slight tail. It would've been much better if we closed at the low of the day, but I'll take it.

At one point during the day, I was staring at a $6,500 paper loss. Yeah, it made me second guess my technical analysis. I should never have even been in this situation in the first place because if I stuck to my trading rules, then I would've sold my entire position before the close on Friday. Instead, I held and I almost paid for it. I was still confident in my technical analysis, but when a stock goes the opposite way by so many points, it's hard not to second guess myself.

So...the day's over. The weekend's over. I sweated a little bit...err...umm...okay, a lot, but it was a controlled sweat. I'm heading up to AC tomorrow, probably after the market close, until Friday afternoon. I didn't get my fill of Poker in Vegas, so I'm gonna go up to AC to fill that void. I'm gonna try my hardest not to play any Blackjack. This trip is just a poker trip though. I'm actually going to try to get into the WPT $10,000 Borgata event that's coming in September. I'm sick of watching all of these donkeys win millions of dollars. I think I'm good enough to be there with them...the only difference between them and me is that I haven't tried playing in one of those big tournaments yet. It's like I want so much to win one of those big $10k buy-in tourneys, but at the same time, I haven't put enough effort into honing my tourney skills. First off, I can't win if I don't try. Secondly, I can't win if I'm not good enough. I'm gonna play in a bunch of tourneys as well as cash games over the next few days....stay tuned....

YM at 11140

Die bitch, DIE!



If you think today's drop is bad, then just wait until later in this week...it's going to get even uglier...that is, if I'm right in my analysis. This is just the start of an ugly ugly decline that's gonna scare the shit out of the longs.

Who's in for scalping the YM for a 1000 ticks?

Biggest scam...

This latest runup was the biggest SCAM ever. A SCAM to get the shorts to cover and a SCAM to get the longs to buy more. False breakout galore. We've already retraced 100% of that latest runup. In a month or two, when the DOW is sitting at 10,000, I'm going to come back and revisit this chart:

Covered 15 YM at 11197 for +$1687.50

We're going down dammit.

Short 5 YM at 11224

Call me an idiot.

Short 10 YM at 11217

Call me stupid.

Dow Gap Up...

Not exactly the gap that I wanted to see, but I still have faith in my analysis. I think we'll know more about where were going in the next few hours here.

I'm down about $3.5k on my YM short right now. To be honest, I'm only just a little bit bitter about it because if my technical analysis is correct, then I'm looking to gain a lot more than $3.5k on the trade. I'm tempted to just sit back today and see where we close. A break of 11140 would be good.

Also...I'm keeping a close eye on PD. I can see it closing at it's high today, then gapping down big tomorrow to trap all of the bulls at the top. It's just a guess right now though.

RMBS...it's not time yet. That's all I can say about that stock.

GOOG...it looks like it could be a good buying opportunity right here, but again, it's not time yet. It's better to wait for confirmation before entering a long position here.

Remember, it's options expiration week. Expect a little more volatility in this market this week. Other than the stocks mentioned above, I don't see very many opportunities right now.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

DIA going down?

I did a little chart studying this weekend. Take a look at the following charts:









Now, take a look at the current daily chart of DIA:

Looks familiar, eh? And guess what...all of them had the same result...they all ended up making new multi-month lows in the ensuing weeks. If history repeats itself, then DIA should go lower within the next few weeks, starting with a huge drop on Monday.

Friday, August 11, 2006

Done for the week...+$407.20

I botched it. I made a late day trade that ruined my weekend. It's been a while since I've done that. I hate it when this happens. Sometimes, the gambler in me takes over. And get this...I shorted 5 more contracts at 11103 and then another 10 at 11121. I sold the second lot of 10 at 11124 after hours for a loss of -$150.

So...I pretty much broke every rule in my Trading Plan today. I'm also still holding onto 10 contracts of the YM at 11101.5. Yeah...not only did I ruin my weekend, but I'm gonna be sweating it out till Sunday at 19:15, which is when the futures market reopens. Don't think that I didn't check out the YM trading hours. This actually kind of exciting...not knowing what will happen when it reopens, but that's not what I'm trying to get at.

I think I'm pretty close to breakeven for the week right now, which is why I didn't post my win/loss. I was up about $750 before this late day trade!! Oh well.

Alright...I'm out. Have a good weekend.

added on 8/13
Positive for the week, if you don't include my current position.

Actually, I forgot to mention the $3,500 gain that I had on the HANS short position in my swing trading portfolio. So, I'm positive by quite a bit for the week.

Short 5 YM at 11100

The trend has been to short at the top of the trading range and buy at the bottom of it. I don't see why it's going to change right now.

Covered 5 YM at 11099 for -$225

Oh man...I got sucked out of this one! What a friggin whippy market. I should probably stop trading today.

Short 5 YM at 11090

Made this trade while posting about the TRIN.

TRIN - Using this indicator for trading

The TRIN indicator is one of the few breadth indicators that I use on a daily basis. It measures the advancing stocks versus the declining stocks, along with their respective volumes. Read here for more detailed information on the TRIN.

Anyways, how do I use the TRIN indicator?



First off, I use a 4 hour / 2 minute TRIN chart to go along with my 2-min charts. You can use whatever. I also have the 20 period MA on the chart. The most important thing to note about the TRIN is it's trend. If the TRIN is making higher highs and higher lows and is above its 20 period MA, then you should be looking to short stocks, as the trend is down. Vice versa for going long. Obviously, there is more to know about the TRIN, but the trend is the most important. The TRIN indicator is just another tool to help you make more accurate decisions when trading. It's nice to understand how it works.

Out 300 GOOG at $369.68 for -$48

I'm not sure what's going on here. A lot of choppiness is what I see. It might be best to sit tight until this choppiness settles down a little bit.

In 150 GOOG at $370.00

Late day rally in progress??? I didn't expect this.

Covered 300 PD at $90.91 for breakeven

I liked the drop, but I didn't like the huge retracements. I'm getting out at breakeven before this trade ruins my weekend.

Covered 5 YM at 11082 for +$225

I'll take it.

Short 5 YM at 11091

We go down now. Breakout failure and bearish divergence. IMO, this could get ugly into the close.

Short 300 PD at $90.90

Down we go again?

Out 150 GOOG at $369.99 for -$218.50

GOOG does it again!

In 150 GOOG at $371.44

Looks good to me.

Out 5 YM at 11100 for +$125

It's taking way too long to move higher. Way too long.

Sometimes I wonder why I day trade. I spend all of this time studying, researching, and reading only to make a few measly bucks. $31,000 in 7 months, that's how much I'm up this year. I could make that money in 3 months surfing the internet at my old job. Much less work, much bigger rewards. Not only that, but my salary was guaranteed. There's no "guarantee" in daytradaing.

Honestly though...I can't complain too much. There's actually nothing else that I'd rather be doing...workwise. I mean, there are plenty of upsides to being a daytrader:

1) I'm my own boss.
2) I can take a vacation whenever the hell I want.
3) I don't have to work on any given day.
4) No morning commute in traffic.
5) No annoying coworkers to deal with.
6) I can take a nap in my own bed during working hours.
7) It's FUN!

The list goes on and on and on. Hopefully, one of these days, I'll make some REAL loot. That way, the one drawback to being a daytrader will no longer be a drawback.

In 5 YM at 11095

Bullish divergence on theh 15-min chart. RSI is low in all time frames. TICK did not confirm the latest new low. This is a ridiculously nice setup. Unforutnately, it's right at the NYSE lunch hour.

Boring day...

Today looks like it's going to be a boring day. If we continue this consolidation, then we should get a pretty significant drop on Monday. If you want to see what I'm talking about, just check out the chart of AAPL on May 15th. Like I said, patterns typically repeat themselves and the chart of DIA sure looks like that of AAPL back in May.

Covered 300 PD at $91.97 for +$337

I'm not exactly sure when today's bleeding will stop, but I'm taking profits here. I can always get back in later.

Short 300 PD at $93.10

Bearish divergence on the 2-min chart. This stock is overbought in all time frames.

PD Short

Looks like a breakout, right?



Careful. Check out the August options on this puppy:



There's way too much bullish sentiment. There are way too many people dumb, fat, and happy with their in-the-money calls. It's a LOCK that we drop to the mid 80s by next week. Max pain is at $80. 9 points to the downside equals 10%. Who wants in?

RMBS Long?

Note the bullish divergence. Some August $12.50 Calls look attractive here. They're trading at $0.10 a contract right now.



There are a lot of puts at $10, so there's no chance that we closer lower than that next Friday. Max Pain would be at $12.50.

Jamie Gold Wins the 2006 WSOP Main Event

Fri Aug 11 03:43:00 PDT 2006

Jamie Gold Wins The Main Event ($12,000,000)


236. Jamie Gold raises to $1,700,000 and Paul Wasicka makes the call. The flop comes Qclub8heart5heart. Paul Wasicka bets $1,500,000 and Jamie Gold moves all in. Wasicka calls and shows 10heart10spade. However, Gold turns over Qspade9club for a pair of queens. The turn is the Adiamond and the river is the 4club.

Paul Wasicka is eliminated from the tournament in 2nd place and earns $6,102,499.

Jamie Gold wins the $10,000 Main Event, the bracelet and $12,000,000.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Millionaires:













PlacePlayerPrize/Chips
1Jamie Gold$12,000,000
2Paul Wasicka$6,102,499
3Michael Binger$4,123,310
4Allen Cunningham$3,628,513
5Rhett Butler$3,216,182
6Richard Lee$2,803,851
7Doug Kim$2,391,520
8Erik Friberg$1,979,189
9Dan Nassif$1,566,858
10Fred Goldberg$1,154,527
11Leif Force$1,154,527
12John Magill$1,154,527

Thursday, August 10, 2006

WSOP Final Table

Live updates here:

Cardplayer

The final table started at 5pm EST.

Done for the day... -$30.40

Trading on days in which I don't have a clear sense of the direction of the markets is always hard for me. Rarely do I ever make a lot of money on those days. As a matter of fact, I would bet that I'm either down for the year on those days or I'm pretty close to breakeven. Today, I treaded pretty cautiously knowing that I wasn't really certain which way we were going. I lost a little bit, but nothing to be disappointed about.

Tomorrow is Friday...I'm still up for the week...let's try to end the week on a positive note.

CME

What a joke. Someone pushed this thing off of a cliff.

Bullish divergence...

Why didn't I buy this bullish divergence?



The success rate of these setups are pretty high. It was a gimme and I didn't take it.

Out 100 CME at $487.72 for +$63

Alright...fun's over. That was the hardest $63 that I've ever made.

In 100 CME at $487.07

Just for fun. I've seen this type of setup before. We should retest the high.

Covered 10 YM at 11158 for breakeven

Okay...do you know what I fuckin hate? When I accidentally click on "Sell" instead of "Buy". I was trying to cover my short position at 11160, but I accidentally entered a short order instead. So, I was sitting on 20 contracts of the YM at 11160. I'm like..."oh shit". I immediately entered an order to cover the second 10 contracts, but I had to take it at 1 tick higher, so I lost $50 on that mistake. Damn...it could've cost me a lot more. That's one of the problem with the IB interface. It's so damn easy to mix up your orders.

Luckily I was about to get out of my other position for a small gain to make up for my mistake. Anyways, I broke even on this trade. I'm looking for a short opportunity now, as I suspect that the market will close around 11115.

Short 5 YM at 11173

I'm averaging up. 10 @ 11159 now. Man...when will I learn to stop fighting the trend.

Short 5 YM at 11146

Oh damn...the YM jumped 15 points before I could even get this post in. WTF? It's a lock that we close around where we opened the day, which is around 11115. We're overbought in all time frames and the TRIN is not cofirming the new highs.

Covered 5 YM at 11121 for -$175

Ehhh....okay, we go higher before we go lower.

Short 5 YM at 11113

Too much chopping around here without any upside, which usually means that it's just a matter of time before we head lower. Stop above 11122.

Out 300 CAI at $48.22 for +$96

Alright...lunch time. No holding positions during lunch time...rule number 2.

CME Short

It's go time. I'm not 100% confident about this play, but I like it here. It's probably best to wait a day or two before entering the short position. Some September $470 or $480 puts could be good. I'm gonna wait just a little bit before doing anything.