party poker

Monday, July 31, 2006

Vegas - Day 1

So, I missed my flight yesterday morning. I got the airport 45 minutes before my flight departed, but after waiting in line to check my bag in, they said that I could no longer do it because it was passed the 35 minutes pre-departure deadline. 30 minutes till my plane departed and there was no way that I was going to be able to get on that damn plane. What a friggin debacle.

I ended up taking a later flight out. I finally arrived in Vegas at 6pm PST.

Right after I got here, I hit the casino immediately. The craps table first. $350 gone...just like that. Then, I went to the $50 BJ table to get my money back. I ended up losing about $50 before I had to go to dinner.

After dinner, I hit the roulette table. I dropped $300 in a matter of 15 minutes. Dumb game. Then, I hit the $50 BJ table again to try to get my money back. By 3am, I had dropped another $250 and was ready for bed.

So, after day 1, I'm down a total of about $950 right now. I need to play some poker, but this Blackjack thing keeps calling my name....

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Saturday, July 29, 2006

Tim Ord's Take on the Market

Another problem of mine over the past week was shorting when I should've been buying. We made a double bottom off of the lows and we should be headed higher in near term. Anyways, here's Tim Ord's take on the market direction:

Tim Ord's Newsletter

He doesn't have the best writing skills, but he knows his shit. Especially in the gold market. He's bullish on the markets in the near term.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Done for the week...-$2060.06

Yeah...bad week, but I'm still +$2,138.72 for the month in my daytrading portfolio. I made a few bucks in my swing portfolio too, probably more than my daytrading portfolio for the month. Just check in the monthly totals log on August 5th or 6th for the actual amount. I'm not sure exactly how much right now.

Okay, I'm exhausted, I'm friggin tired and I need a little rest. I'm pretty sure Vegas is NOT the answer, but I'll try my best to make it as relaxing as possible. What'd be nice is if I won one of those WSOP tourneys. We'll see. I might not even play in any of them.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Done for the day...-$974.60

Another profitable morning turned into a EOD loss.

Review of my mistake...

Here's the chart of the YM:



Okay...looking back at the chart of the YM...I'm thinking to myself, why in the world did I short that initial lot? W-bottom, bullish divergence in the RSI...come on. I should've known better than that. I should've been thinking "BUY" instead of "SHORT". My second mistake was, why didn't I take my stop loss above the consolidation high at 11204? I saw it break, I was gonna take my stop, but I didn't. Once again, it got me in trouble. When will I ever learn? It's happened three times this week already...inexcusable.

One of these days, taking my stops will be automatic. No second guessing, no looking back...click and I'm out. It's like folding pocket Kings to a big reraise preflop. If you put the guy on pocket Aces, then it's a no brainer fold. You gotta do what you gotta do.

Even though I've lost more money in other weeks, this week has probably been the toughest on me. Perhaps it's because I've only had one winning session out of five trading days. And the one winning session was for a measly eleven bucks.

Looking back at my mistakes, I know what I did wrong. I just need to correct those mistakes, so that I won't repeat them going forward. It's hard, but if I put enough effort into remembering these mistakes, then I'm certain that I can eventually get to the point where I don't make these same mistakes over again. I'll be there one day and then I'll look back at a week like this week and say "wow, what a novice I was back in those days...". I'll be there one day...

YM

Okay...here's what I did. I shorted my initial lot at 11201. Then I doubled down at 11237. Then I quadrupled down at 11256. 20 contracts at an average of 11237. The high on the YM was at 11275. I was staring at a pretty hefty loss at the top. Then after lunch, we got a nice little slide, which I covered 10 contracts at 11240 for -$150. Then, I just covered the last 10 contracts at 11260 for -$1150. Yeah, yeah...I should've covered everything at 11240, but I got a little greedy and it cost me.

So, I'm down $974.40 on the day right now. It's been an ugly week. We've got an hour and a half left in the trading day. Let see if I can find something worth playing.

Watching and waiting...

I'm just sitting here, watching and waiting now...wishing that this week was over. The markets have been in consolidation mode for the past few hours. I'm stuck in a short position...almost crapping in my pants...hah. Not really, but let's just say that I haven't eaten lunch yet. This is what I get for being on the wrong side of the market.

Covered 1000 YHOO at $26.45 for +$30

My YM trade is not acting as nice. Holy crap...what a move. I'm going to cover on the first retracement back down...

Short 5 YM at 11201

We should've gone higher by now. The fact that we're unable to push higher, means that we're going lower. This contradicts what I said earlier! Hah. The beauty of the markets...they change on a minute-by-minute basis.

Covered 5 YM at 11193 for +$250

I'm not trying to mess around with profits today. I'm gonna take em while I can. Pristine.com is about to short the breakdown though...I really don't know what their reasoning is. If there's a breakdown, I normally wait for the stock to breakdown and then short on the first retracement back up. Again, I think it's better to wait for confirmation before entering a position...not that I always do.

YHOO

DTT just called for a YHOO short. They're a little late to the game.

Short 5 YM at 11203

Short 1000 YHOO at $26.48

I like this setup.

WSOP Main Event Starts Today

For those of you who didn't know, the WSOP $10,000 Main Event starts this morning at 10am PST. Check Cardplayer.com for real-time updates.

Covered 5 YM at 11214 for +$100

We should've dropped a little harder by now. The fact that it's holding up here scares me. Based on this action, it sure looks like we're going higher...

Short 5 YM at 11218

RSI bearish divergence. We're up at yesterday's highs. And extreme TICK readings. We're overbought in all time frames. I broke one of my rules of not trading before 9:50am, but this is a very compelling play. I'm going to keep a tight stop, just in case.

Which way do the markets go today?

Considering the fact that we've had two doji bars after a long run up and we STILL haven't retraced back to the downside yet, means that we're in a strong ass market. A market that fails to go down tells me that we're eventually going to go higher. Maybe not today, but certainly within the next few trading days.

For today, I think we'll be in the same situation as we have been in for the past two days. It's going to be narrow ranged trading with the DOW closing near where we started the day.

CBOT mini-sized Dow Article

Pretty good article on trading the mini-sized Dow:

TradeTheMarkets.com

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Annoying...+$11.26 for the day.

"Annoying" is the word that describes today's action. ANNOYING AS HELL. After grinding it out for 6.5 hours, I walked away with a $11.26 gain. Hey...at least it wasn't another loss right? Umm...yeah. And believe me, I was intent on walking away as a winner today...even if it was only a measly eleven bucks and twenty-six cents. F it...a win is a win. I'll take it.

Anybody who made good money in today's market, I commend you because it was NOT an easy day to trade. The one drop that happened, started when I went to lunch...go figure. 70 point drop and I missed it. SOB. F it...missed money is better than lost money.

I wish that it was this week that I was away on vacation because these past four days have been agonizing. It's like I'm sitting there with a short position and I'm saying "drop, drop, drop" and then we go make a new high. The YM tried to break 11125 for about an hour today and finally, it just gave up and burst to the upside. $600 gain wiped out in 2 minutes. Yeah, I doubled up on my short position at 11138. Stupid F'in YM. I ended up breaking even on that trade, but I had a nice gain. In hindsight, I should've taken half of my profits off of the table. Sometimes my mind is so made up about the direction of a stock that I lose all focus on what I should be doing. Take half of the profits off of the table and play it safe or let it ride? The little devil sitting on my left shoulder said to let it ride today. Stupid little red devil. Next time, I pull the little red devil's pants down and spank him when he tries to influence me.

Alright, I'm out. One more day till the weekend. Three more days till Vegas...

Short 5 YM at 11137

This market looks sick. I know what a bottom looks like and it doesn't look like we're forming one. It looks like we're just setting up for much lower prices...

Covered 5 YM at 11139 for +$175

Getting a little shy...it's not moving down as fast I as want it to, which means that there's something shady going on. I'll continue to wait.

Short 5 YM at 11146

Come on now.

Out 3 YM at 11130 for -$30

Damn...okay, I guess we're going lower. A sideway consolidation after a big down move means lower prices. I just gotta wait for th RSI to come back up, then I'm all over this on the short side.

Long 3 YM at 11132

Let's give it another shot. If there's no substantial retracement within 5 minutes, I'm out.

Out 3 YM at 11135 for -$60

Umm...I got stopped out. Beatch.

Long 3 YM at 11139

Bullish divergence. Bottoming tail. Doji reversal bar. Stop below 11135.

YM Cliff Dive

Market taking a cliff dive, as anticipated.



I think I need to revise my trading rule to say "no holding onto losing daytrading position during lunch".

Covered 3 YM at 11198 for +$75

It looks like we're going lower, but I need to go get some lunch and one of my new Trading rules is to not hold positions when I got to lunch. I'll call it the $800 burrito rule.

Covered 3 YM at 11201 for +$30

I'm holding the other 3 contracts for the ensuing cliff dive. It's lunch time.

Short 3 YM at 11211

I don't know...I'm feeling pretty confident right now. I've been here before, I've seen this before...and it smells like a top.

Short 3 YM at 11195

Can anybody else feel the fact that the YM is about to fall off a cliff soon? All aboard for the cliff dive...who wants in?

HANS Short

If you're not on the HANS short gravy train yet, then it's time to get in! You heard it here first...we're going to the mid-teens within 2 months. I'd post a chart, but blogger is sucking today...like usual...

Covered 3 YM at 11197 for +$150

Two can play at this game. I can go all day long like this...

Short 3 YM at 11207

Let's play ball...

Topping tail, higher high, but lower RSI...same old shit, different trade...

Covered 3 YM at 11200 for +$120

Definately like a little boy coming in for a quickie...

This is actually kinda fun. I like making a zillion trades a day. Scalping here, scalping there...

You should hear this guy in the pristine chat room, he's saying that the market "should've done this here" and "should've done that there" and that this is a "terrible trading environment"... I'm glad someone agrees with me that this week has been pretty tough to trade...

Short 3 YM at 11208

The last bar was a trend reversal bar. I think I'm just gonna scalp the entire day today...for 3 contracts each way. This is a choppy market, as seen from the past three days. I'll get eaten up otherwise.

Covered 3 YM at 11205 for -$195

Okay...probably better to wait for things to settle down...

Short 3 YM at 11192

We had a gap up, then a huge retracement back to the downside and we've been consolidating for the past 20 minutes. And we've got two topping tails. If we can break below the lows of the days, we should be heading much lower.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Done for the day...-$263.62

Here were a few late day trades that I made:

Short 5 YM at 11166
Covered 5 YM at 11169 for -$75
Short 5 YM at 11159
Covered 5 YM at 11141 for +$450

Damn, another tough day. I don't know if it was just me or what. It looks like DTT walked away with +0.79%, 4 winners and 1 loser, but they only trade stocks, so that's a little different.

Although I've had three days of losses, I'm not terribly disappointed because they've all been relatively small losses. I'm now -$1096.72 on the week, BUT the week's not over yet. Two more days to be exact. All I need is to do is to catch one good trend and I'm back to good. I'll tell you, it's been frustrating as hell over the past three days because I have expectations of making money EVERY SINGLE DAY and when I don't make money, I feel defeated. That's just the competitor in me yapping though. In reality, I don't know a single good trader that doesn't have days like I've had over the past three sessions. Once again...I guess I'll have to wait until tomorrow to get my money back..

Covered 5 YM at 11171 for -$100

Oh man...what a day. The Pristine moderator said that if it wasn't for the people in the room, he would've turned off his computer already and called it a day. Heh.

Short 5 YM at 11167

Frustrating day again. Just a lot of choppy action all day today!

Covered 3 YM at 11180 for -$390

Choppy as hell up here. I'm out everything for now. All I need is one good run and I'll make back all of my losses from the past few days. This sucks though...

Covered 3 YM at 11191 for -$360

Awww man...I'm getting chopped up here.

Short 3 YM at 11167

Alright, let's try this again. This time it looks like a real breakout failure...

Covered 2 YM at 11173 for -$90

Alright, I've gotta respect the new high, even though I don't believe that we're strong enough to go higher....I'm trying to stay disciplined.

Short 2 YM at 11162

I've got 5 contracts at an average of 11157. I'm gonna cover at 11132 or above today's high at 11177.

Short 3 YM at 11154

Looks like a breakout failure and retracement back to the upside. As long as we don't make a new high, then I think we're golden to the short side. We hit yesterday's high and then droppped like a brick from there.

Stoxpoker Interview

StoxPoker.com is a blog that I frequently visit. I like reading about High Stakes poker, similar to Terrance Chan's blog and of course, Negreanu's blog. Anyways, here's an interview with the guy behind stoxpoker.com:

StoxPoker Interview

I never realized that he was only 29 years old. It's kinda funny how there are so many people my age doing what I do. I'm sure it has a lot to do with the fact that we grew up around the same type of financial atomosphere.

Back when I was in college, in the internet bubble days, the stock market was the way to make money as stocks were flying high on a daily basis. When everyone lost all of their money in the stock market, online poker came about. I think the first time I played online poker was back in 2001, right when the market bottomed, but by that time, my stocks were practically worthless. Then, I started making money playing online poker. I probably could've made a living player poker, but it just wasn't what I wanted to do. The stock market is so much more exciting to me.

Anyways, these days, I keep reading about these 20 year olds making a killing from poker. I mean, look at this 21 year old kid, Jeff Madsen. He's won 2 WSOP bracelets already, placed 3rd in one tourney, and is currently at the final table of the Seven Card Sud High-Low 8/OB. Crazy if you ask me.

Well, it's lunchtime. The market has been a bore over the past few hours. I missed the last run, which kinda sucks because I WAS expecting it...I just mistimed the entry.

BTW...I'm heading to Vegas this coming Sunday for a week. I'm not planning on playing in the main event, but I may play in one or two of the $1k or $1.5k NL tourneys. I'm excited. I just gotta make sure I stay away from that BJ table. Look for my name on cardplayer.com. I'm gonna see if I can sign in as "boogster". Hah.

Why didn't I cover and go long at the same time?

First off, here's the 2-min chart of the YM:



I covered when it broke the red downtrend line. At that time, it looked like a w-bottom and a breakout, but I wasn't sure. The fact that it made a new multi-hour high after it broke the downtrend line confirmed the brekout of the downtrend. So, the idea was to buy the first dip AFTER the breakout...not to buy the actual breakout. This is the mistake that many people make. Many people buy the breakout, but how do you know that it's a breakout until it's been confirmed? You always want confirmation of a trend change before entering a position. Remember that.

So, after the breakout, I thought that the first pullback was at 11113, but it wasn't. It was actually at 11104, so I bought a little too early, but in hindsight it still would've been okay as the YM is trading at 11139 right now.

Out 5 YM at 11119 for +$150

I don't know what it is...I don't like the feeling here. I just doesn't *feel* like the market wants to go higher. I'm gonna take my profits here and sit on my hands until we see some real power...

Long 5 YM at 11113

W-bottom, breakout and this is the first pullback, so I'm buying here...

Covered 2 YM at 11101 for +$70

The YM has been chopping around all morning. It just broke the uptrend line

Covered 3 YM at 11088 for +$280

Look at AAPL now...$62.25...piece of shit. They brought the stock above the high of the day to take out all of the stops, then dropped it like a brick....

I'm holding onto 2 contracts of the YM because I still think we're going lower and I always miss the big runs because I sell too early. I'm giving this trade a little room to drop lower.

Covered 500 AAPL at $62.52 for -$90

I lose more often than I win on AAPL. I'm not exactly sure what it is...perhaps Market Maker manipulation? No clue.

Short 500 AAPL at 62.35

RSI bearish divergence and breakout failure and 180 degree reversal. Gonna put a tight stop above the high on this trade because I've been burned by these before.

Short 5 YM at 11108

We tried to rally, but failed. Time to go lower.

Pristine.com e-mini chat room...

I think the original moderator must've quit the room right before they started this free trial because I've noticed that they haven't really been making any trades. Usually, they'll tell you when to buy and sell the YM. However, for the past few days they've barely even been moderating the room which kinda sucks because it doesn't show the potential members what the room is really all about. I hope they get their shit together soon.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Bitter...done for the day, -$460.60

Read below.

That sucked...-$1325

Alright...so you're not a trader until you've experienced what I just experienced. I shorted my first lot at 11120, doubled down at 11125, tripled down at 11146, quadrupled down at 11166. 20 contracts at an average of 11138. 20!!! Yeah, it was one of those 20 contract trades again. Even the friggin pros don't trade 20 contracts. WTF am I doing trading 20 contracts?

Anyways, when the YM was at 11176, I felt the pain. Big time. It hurt. I was cursing and everything. Then a topping tail came...relief. Then the small slide came. Phew. I ended up covering 10 contracts at 11153 for -$750, 5 contracts at 11152 for -$350, and the last 5 contracts at 11147 for -$225 for a net loss of $1325 on that trade. MF'er. I was doing so well today too. +$800 at one point. And now, -$460.60 for the day. That makes me bitter. Very bitter. Shit happens. That's why daytrading is NOT for the faint of heart. Luckily, I'm still fairly young and my heart is still in fairly good shape....for now. Although I felt like I aged about 10 years today.

One of these days, I'm going to follow all of my trading "rules" and take my stops when I'm supposed to. Perhaps I should start by actually writing a set of trading rules? Good idea. The good thing about this blog is that I don't always notice my mistakes until I write them down. So, in a sense, this blog is a way for me to realize my mistakes and correct them. Not only that, but I hate posting losses. In writing this blog, it's made me much more cautious about entering trades because I know that I'll have to post a loss if it's a bad trade.

Days like today drive me to spend even more hours studying and reading and learning about daytrading because not only do I want to make massive amounts of money from this game, but also, I want to be untouchable. I want to be so good at this game that no one can touch me. This drives me more than anything. In order to be the best, I think it has to.

Okay, enough rambling. Get this...the YM is at 11127 right now, a full 10 points below my average. Let's see 10 points x 20 contracts x $5 multiplier = +$1000. Sometimes, I hate this game... Good thing that tomorrow is a new day...

Short 5 YM at 11120

Market way overextended to the upside. Technically, I should wait until I get confirmation of the top before actually shorting, however, the last bar was a doji bar, which normally signal a top or a bottom, depending on which way the market was trending. Also, RSI is ridculously high and volume is declining on the upside on that last surge. I'll be content with 10-15 points.

2PM update...

After watching some of these "professional traders" operate over the past few months, there are a few things that I noticed about how they operate. By "professional traders", I mean the guys at Daytradeteam.com and Pristine.com. First off, they almost ALWAYS take a lunch break. From around 11:45am till about 1:15pm, it doesn't matter what kind of day they're having...they dump their positions at lunch time and take a lunch break. Before watching these guys operate, I hardly ever stepped away from my computer from 9:30am till 4:00pm. I ate lunch, but it'd be me making a sandwich with my laptop next to me in the kitchen or if I went out for lunch, then I'd run to grab a sandwich and come back within 15 minutes. Hardly did I ever take a real lunch break. You might think "what's the big deal", but I think it adds to the whole mentality that you must have in order to make money at this game.

Secondly, very rarely did these guys trade before 9:50am. Rarely. Before, I used to enter trades right at the market open. Sometimes I would make money, other times I would not, but the thing about trading right at the market open is uncertainty. In order to consistently make money in this game, I've realized that I have to take as much uncertainty out of this game as possible. That means, no trading until after the 9:50am - 10:10am reversal time!

What else? Well, I noticed that these guys rarely made more than 5 or 6 round trips trades per day. I remember having 15-20 round trip trades per day just a few weeks ago. Seriously, what the hell am I thinking making so many trades per day? The idea is to take the low risk / high reward plays...not every single W-bottom and M-top that shows up on the intra-day chart. So, trade less and cut out the 50/50 trades.

These are just a few of the things that I've noticed about the successful traders that I've been watching over the past few weeks. I think the only way to become better is to understand and perhaps even mimic how successful traders operate.

Just some random thoughts. Now, let's make some money...or try not to lose any back...

Covered 5 YM at 11057 for +$375

Hmm....this could be a double bottom and the first pullback after the breakout, which would make this setup buyable. I'm stumped now....probably better to sit tight until I can figure out the market direction...lunch time?

Short 5 YM at 11072

Ehh...volume declining to the upside. RSI is getting pretty high. I'm gonna keep a tight stop on this one...

Covered 5 YM at 11051 for +$125

Looks like a breakdown failure and 180 degree reversal. I'm out. This is the type of run that punishes the shorts and makes them pee in their pants. We could go back up to retest the highs from here...

Short 5 YM at 11056

Markets are weak. After this last drop, we consolidated sideways for about an hour in the bottom 1/3 of the big red bar, which is bearish. TICK is hovering around +200 to -1000, which is also bearish. And volume is declining on the surges....time to short?

Out 5 YM at 11062 for -$25

Flawed entry, otherwise, I would've made money on this trade...I should've waited for the 2-min bar to close before entering my position...

In 5 YM at 11063

We *should* get a little bounce here.

Out 5 YM at 11090 for +$400

Wow...that took an entire minute and 23 seconds...I like it.

In 5 YM at 11074

RSI showing bullish divergence and W-bottom.

Pristine.com e-mini chat room...

If you didn't read my post yesterday, then here it is again. Pristine.com is offering their e-mini chat room for free this week and this week only. Login through this link with the username "guest" and password "guest":

http://chat.pristine.com/rtr/login.asp

Here's your chance to learn about the YM from a professional trader.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Done for the day...-$372.50

Frustrated...that's the word that describes how I felt today. The Dow was up 181 points and I lost money. The same thing happened last week, except I lost more. I've gotta learn to go with the flow and stop trying to buck the trend. Either that, or just stay out of the market completely until I find a good entry point.

Alright, I'm out. I'm glad tomorrow's a new day.

Covered 5 YM at 11089 for -$150

Why do I buck the trend? I should just take the easy money instead of trying to work for it...I'm sooo friggin stubborn sometimes....it didn't cost me as much money as last week, but I'm a little more frustrated today than I was last Thursday...

Time to punish myself by going to the gym...

Covered 5 YM at 11100 for -$150

Ehh...shorting in a strong market again. When will I ever learn?

Short 5 YM at 11094

Shorting more...just for a scalp though...

Short 5 YM at 11083

Way overextended to the upside...consolidation time...RSI and TICK are both confirming the top on all time frames...2-min, 15-min, and 60-min....

Also, make note that Friday's high was at 11087, which should also be a resistance point.

Choppy market...

Not including this morning's surge, today has been a pretty choppy trading day. In my opinion, it's hard to trade on days like this. I mean, we're going from new highs to new lows in 30 minute spans. Not good for a trader. I'm gonna sit tight until I can find a nice setup...the problem is, I'm not sure whether to go long or short now...

Pristine.com e-mini chat room...

Not sure if any of you are in the chat room, but they're offering a free week this week. If you're not in there and you're serious about trading, then I'd recommend that you sign in because you're going to learn a hell of a lot more in this chat room in one week than you would if you were to read a book.

Also, one of the co-founders, Greg Capra, of Pristine.com is moderating the chat room. It looks like the old moderator, Sean Patridge, the idiot, decided to "take a break" or perhaps even quit, which is good because this guy, Greg Capra, normally charges $5k to $10k for session with him. He knows his shit.

Covered 500 HANS at $44.64 for +$50

I'm down a total of $26.10 right now. Why is it that when the dow is up big, I'm hardly ever on the plus side?

Covered 5 YM at 11041 for -$75

I'm glad to just get out with a small loss...phew...let's not make this mistake again....

blogger.com is sucking today...I think it's time to host this blog myself....

Short 5 YM at 11039

We're way overextended to the upside and I see an M-top. This trade is just for a scalp though, as the markets are still pretty strong...

Blogger sucking today...I'm sucking too. Can someone tell me why I'm shorting this market? You figure that I would've learned my lesson last Thursday already....

Short 500 HANS at $44.74

Looks like a top here. This trade is in my daytrading account.

Covered 5 YM at 10978 for +$125

Blogger's been down. I made this trade earlier this morning. The markets are STRONG today...not a good idea to be shorting...

Short 5 YM at 10983

The Pristine.com called this short. I never should've covered my initial short.

Covered 5 YM at 10991 for -$75

Crap...got sucked out.

Pristine.com Free e-mini chat room for a week

Click on this link:

http://chat.pristine.com/rtr/login.asp

Then enter "guest" and "guest" to login. If you're having a problem logging in, try holding the ctrl key clicking on login.

Short 5 YM at 10988

Definately a bullish bias today, but we just made a bearish divergence in the RSI and it's 10am reversal time. The TICK did not confirm the latest high either, so we're gonna pullback here for a little bit.

Short 300 HANS at $43.94

In my swing portfolio. I'm looking for big gains in this trade.

Covered 300 GLD at $60.22 for $1,188

I shorted GLD in my swing trading portfolio. It looks like we're going lower, but in the short term, we are overextended on the short side.

Morning watch...time to short HANS!

So, I looked at the chart of the Nasdaq about a dozen times this weekend. And I keep seeing that we're oversold. The daily chart is showing a bullish divergence on the RSI with a lower volume retest that happened on Friday, however the weekly chart is not confirming this bullish divergence as the RSI made a new low on Friday.

What does this mean? Well, we're going higher short term, potentially 10-15%, but the bad news is that we will most likely come back down to this point within the next two months to retest this low. My plan for this week is to do more buying than selling.

With that said, it's go time on the HANS short. Two weeks ago, I said that it was almost time to short HANS. Today, I'm saying that it IS time to short HANS. Take a look at the charts:




The last high was made on lower RSI on the daily chart and the uptrend line was broken to the downside two trading sessions ago. IMO, it's time to short this puppy. I will probably be shorting today in my swing trading portfolio. ALL ABOARD....


Sunday, July 23, 2006

Baffled...

I was pretty close to folding this hand....what in the world was this dude thinking by calling a huge raise with AJ? I must admit though...he almost had me... I almost folded...


Hand #33597530-5956 at Havant (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 23/Jul/06 19:52:20

zehnq is at seat 1 with $340.95.
gwa22 is at seat 2 with $298.90.
valek is at seat 3 with $591.
PkrStud69420 is at seat 4 with $737.40.
boogster is at seat 5 with $282.
The button is at seat 3.

PkrStud69420 posts the small blind of $3.
boogster posts the big blind of $6.

zehnq: -- --
gwa22: -- --
valek: -- --
PkrStud69420: -- --
boogster: Qd Qh

Pre-flop:

zehnq raises to $15. gwa22 folds. valek folds.
PkrStud69420 calls. boogster re-raises to $40.50.
zehnq calls. PkrStud69420 folds.

Flop (board: 2s 2h Jc):

boogster bets $96. zehnq goes all-in for $300.45.
boogster goes all-in for $241.50. zehnq is
returned $58.95 (uncalled).

Turn (board: 2s 2h Jc Td):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 2s 2h Jc Td Th):

(no action in this round)

Showdown:

zehnq shows Ah Js.
zehnq has Ah Js Jc Td Th: two pair, jacks and tens.
boogster shows Qd Qh.
boogster has Qd Qh Jc Td Th: two pair, queens and tens.


Hand #33597530-5956 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $579.
boogster wins $577 with two pair, queens and tens.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

GOOG

Alright, it's been a few months since I've really looked at GOOG. Looking back at the big drop after earnings on April 21st, all of the signs were there that a drop was imminent. High RSI being the #1 factor. Oh well, if only I knew then what I know now, perhaps I wouldn't have had such a big loss on those options. Live and learn, right?

So, a reader asked me to revisit GOOG. I'll start with the chart:



Where do we go from here? The short answer is...up. We're at uptrend support, RSI is low and the bar that formed last Friday is a short term reversal bar called a hammer. I also like the increased volume on thursday's bar, which also signals a short term bottom. So, if you want to play GOOG for the short term, then yes, I would recommend buying here. You can sell at the uptrend line, which is currently around the $410-$415 level.

Is it time to load up for the longer term? Well, not quite yet. The pattern that's forming on the daily chart is known as a sideways triangle, which according to the rules, is bullish, since GOOG is technically in an uptrend. However, until that pattern is broken to the upside with volume, GOOG is not a buy for the long term.

That's where we stand with GOOG. Who knows, this could be the bottom before we make that longer term move that I'm still expecting. However, it's always better to play the first pullback after the breakout than trying to catch the exact bottom. Confirmation is key. If you want to be aggressive, then you can enter your long position here.

I'm pretty sure that I have the nuts...

What were these idiots doing?

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #5641918279: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2006/07/22 - 11:43:07 (ET)
Table 'Glauke' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: pimpinkins ($453.75 in chips)
Seat 2: VaeSolis ($416.30 in chips)
Seat 3: stinkerb ($160 in chips)
Seat 4: boogster ($327.20 in chips)
Seat 5: ianonabeach ($142.25 in chips)
Seat 6: King Jamis ($204.20 in chips)
ianonabeach: posts small blind $2
King Jamis: posts big blind $4
stinkerb: posts big blind $4


*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to boogster [Ah 7h]
pimpinkins: folds
VaeSolis: folds
stinkerb: checks
boogster: calls $4
ianonabeach: folds
King Jamis: checks


*** FLOP *** [5s Kh Ts]
King Jamis: checks
stinkerb: checks
boogster: checks


*** TURN *** [5s Kh Ts] [Jh]
King Jamis: bets $10
stinkerb: calls $10
boogster: calls $10


*** RIVER *** [5s Kh Ts Jh] [3h]
King Jamis: bets $40
stinkerb: calls $40
boogster: raises $273.20 to $313.20 and is all-in
King Jamis: calls $150.20 and is all-in
stinkerb: calls $106 and is all-in


*** SHOW DOWN ***
boogster: shows [Ah 7h] (a flush, Ace high)
King Jamis: shows [Th 4h] (a flush, King high)
boogster collected $88.40 from side pot
stinkerb: mucks hand
boogster collected $479 from main pot
King Jamis leaves the table


*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $570.40 Main pot $479. Side pot $88.40. Rake $3
Board [5s Kh Ts Jh 3h]

Seat 1: pimpinkins folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: VaeSolis folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: stinkerb mucked [Kd Td]
Seat 4: boogster (button) showed [Ah 7h] and won ($567.40) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 5: ianonabeach (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: King Jamis (big blind) showed [Th 4h] and lost with a flush, King high

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Dunzo...+$1,252.06

Good day today. I only made 6 round trip trades. 4 winners, 1 loser, and 1 breakeven. I'm proud of myself for being so disciplined! I didn't force any trades and I took my stop losses when I should've. All I wanted to do was to get back some of my losses from yesterday. Hopefully, yesterday was just an aberration.

So, I'm done for the week. I'm going on another fishing trip tomorrow. Sandy Point in Maryland to catch some Rock Fish. Yeah...I've succumbed to fishing as my sport of choice after busting my knee (torn acl). Although, I did go to the doc's yesterday and he said that I could start running and golfing now, so I'm almost back in business. Still no soccer for another 3 months though. Hopefully, I'll be able to get my golf game going again in these last three months that I'm outta commission. I'm ready to take some money from my buddies who claim that they're "golfing pros".

Well...I'm +$3284.22 on the week. It's been a while since I've posted such a nice number. It'd be nice if I could do this every week. Hopefully, one of these days, it will be like this every week...

Who's in for a GOOG $390 Straddle?

A straddle is when you buy 1 call option and 1 put option at the same strike price for the same month. The idea is that if the stock moves big in one way or the other, you can potentially make big gains. GOOG is trading at $388 right now, down $10.50. The July $390 call is at $14.00 and The July $390 put is at $15.30. One option of each would cost around $2900. If the stock moves big in one way or the other, then you are golden...

I'd do it, but I'm going fishing tomorrow, so I won't be able to sell my options at the market open...

Oh yeah...GOOG announces earnings after the close...

DTT Chat Room

For those of you who are interested in Daytradeteam.com, here's what their chat room looks like:



I don't get anything out of it if you sign up. I just enjoy promoting good service. Perhaps it's because I can relate to these guys...they're all in their late 20s, own their own business, and daytrade stocks.

Out 4 YM at 11009 for breakeven

I think we go higher from here, but I don't like the looks of it. I'll sit this one out. Discipline, baby!! How you like them apples?!?

In 4 YM at 11009

I'll give it a shot right here. Probably best to wait for things to settle, but the indicators don't like...at least, I don't think they do...

Covered 7 YM at 11010 for +$595

That last new low was not confirmed by the TICK and TRIN. We may be moving higher from here...short term at least....

Short 7 YM at 11027

I shorted 2 at 11024, then another 5 at 11029. Market looks bearish to me...and both the TICK and TRIN are confirming this.

What I'm gonna get when I make my first million...

My first million:



My second million:

Interview with Andy Swan from DTT

I haven't been able to find very many trading opportunities today, so I've been doing some reading. This is a pretty interesting interview with Andy Swan from DTT:

Andy Swan Interview

A lot of what he says sounds very familiar, except I only lost about $20k back in the late 90s and I never went to law school...hah.

ENER Chart

Someone asked me what I thought about ENER a few months back. I told them that I wouldn't touch it. It was trading around $40-$42 at that time. Since then, it's gone done quite a bit, down to $34 today. I have ENER on my watchlist every day, so I keep somewhat of a close eye on it. Well, looking at the daily chart, it looks like we may have made a short term low. Note the higher lows in the RSI and the declining volume. And just recently, the double bottom. If you're looking to buy ENER, now would be the time to do it. First target would be $40.

Out 500 AAPL at $60.43 for +$105

If I had to make a guess...the market looks like it's going down today. Probably better to be shorting into strength than buying the dips. (As I say this, my first 4 trades were all longs...hah).

Out 5 YM at 11046 for +$300

The TICK did not confirm that last new high.

If you're wondering why I've been using the TICK and TRIN as indicators, it's because I just finished the Pristine.com Market Internals DVD last night. I should finished it a long time ago. I think that DVD is going to help my "game" tremendously. It's got some valuable insight in there. I'd recommend buying it when you get the chance, but not until after you've learned the basics.

Out 5 YM at 11045 for +$300

Same as the AAPL trade. I'm locking in half of my profits.

Out 500 AAPL at $60.20 for -$2.50

AAPL moves fast and I dind't want to overextend my position then find myself in trouble.

In 5 YM at 11034

Bullish divergence in the RSI and TICK...we're going higher now...

In 5 YM at 11033

RSI is way oversold and the TICK is not confirming the new lows. Not only that, but it's 10am reversal time.

In 500 AAPL at $59.88

My first entry was flawed. Doubling down.

In 500 AAPL at $60.53

Not sure what it is, but I like this setup and the YM is not ready for trading yet.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Trader Psychology...

This statement cannot be more true:

"Successful traders are extremely competitive individuals who, as a whole, hate losing."

Two Kinds of Traders

Late day trades...-$1687.50

I made a few late day trades on the YM. Don't ever try this at home, but I tripled up on the YM short. I ended up making a net total of $225 on that trade. But I lost on two other YM trades. One for 15 points or -$375 and the other for 6 points or -$150.

Today was bound to happen. It's like the Mike Matasow blowup. The total for my YM trades were -$1807.50 and I made $120 on my SHLD trade, which puts my daily total at -$1687.50. I didn't count the DIA options trade because it was in my swing trading portfolio. Ehh...not a good day today. I swear though, one of these days, I'm going to have an ulcer...trading is not for the faint of heart...

Considering that the DOW is up 207 points and not once did I go long the stock...I consider my loss, fortunate. This is what I get for trying to buck the trend. What an idiot. Imagine if I would've bought the market the entire day...I probably would've made loot. The sad thing is that I was expecting the market to go higher...yet I shorted and shorted and shorted....

Covered 400 SHLD at $142.40 for +$120

My first stock trade in 4 trading days. I was hoping for more, but I wasn't going to let this trade turn into a loss...

Out DIA SEP $108 Calls at $4.10 for +$750

Not bad for a $1300 investment.

Short 400 SHLD at $142.71

Double top, 180 reversal and lower high on the RSI. If it doesn't go south within a few minutes, I'm out.

Short 5 YM at 11057

Keep on shorting like an idiot...

Covered 5 YM at 11005 for -$675

This was my second lot, which I unloaded before I left for the doctors. Time to make my money back...

I'm down about $1600 on the day right now.

Near real-time chart of the YM...

Here's what I'm looking at:




The uptrend line was just broken, so we should see at least a 40%-60% fibonacci retracement from high to low, which would put the downside target at around the 10950 area. Be careful though...I have a feeling that we're going to dip to that area, then immediately turn back towards the upside. Don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar. Don't forget that we're still in an uptrend, which means, buy on the dips...not short on the surges. Keep an eye on RSI...

Time to roll...be back around 2pm or so.

Covered 5 YM at 11005 for -$675

10 contracts at an average of 10978. Bring me back down to earth, baby...

F me...I've got a doctor's appointment in about 40 minutes here. This market looks like it's going to retrace back down, but I can't really hold onto it while I'm gone, could I? This could be one of those $800 burrito episodes. Imagine a $2k doctor's appointment. I'll probably dump before I leave here in 10 mins...

Short 5 YM at 11007

Can someone please explain to me why I'm shorting this market? And then doubling down? I was just in the same situation about 30 minutes ago. Those who don't learn from their mistakes are condemned to repeat them....

Short 5 YM at 10951

Now, this one looks like a legitimate setup.

Covered 5 YM at 10931 for -$75

Alright...no more stupid mistakes like this.

Covered YM at 10935 for -$175

I had 10 contracts short at an average of 10928. I was staring at a pretty ugly loss at one point.

Short 5 YM at 10965

Man, I'm getting careless. The market popped right after I shorted. And what in the hell was I doing shorting this market? And now I'm doubling down?? I just want to get out of this situation with as little pain as possible.

Short 5 YM at 10892

Betonsports.com

BetOnSport CEO Arrested

Now, check this website out:

Millsports.com

I had money at this sportsbetting site at one point. A few thousand, if I remember correctly, but I took it all out 6-8 months ago. I can't imagine if my sportsbetting site had closed down like this...would I get my money back?

Gotta stop this...

Seriously, I gotta stop doing this shit:


***** Hand History for Game 4759646898 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, July 19, 01:11:33 ET 2006
Table Fryerstown (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: GBullen ( $0 )
Seat 4: skinsrback ( $607 )
Seat 5: boogster ( $445.30 )
Seat 1: pete120 ( $1799.67 )
Seat 6: XChanp ( $400 )
Seat 3: VPIP23PFR17 ( $661.80 )
boogster posts small blind [$2].
XChanp posts big blind [$4].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to boogster [ 9d Qd ]
boogster calls [$2].
XChanp raises [$11].
boogster calls [$11].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 8h, 7s ]
boogster checks.
XChanp bets [$22].
boogster calls [$22].

** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ]
boogster checks.
XChanp bets [$55].
boogster raises [$110].
XChanp calls [$55].

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
boogster bets [$150].
XChanp folds.
boogster does not show cards.
boogster wins $442


My problem is that I get way more of an adrenaline rush from doing things like this than winning the easy way (grinding it out). I swear, it's killing poker game. I used to be sooo disciplined in poker. And now, I am just the opposite. I don't like it. I definately need to fix my game.

Poker Hand...

I'm making the same mistakes over and over again, it's killin me.

Here was the hand. In a $1/$2 NL game, I had pocket Aces in the cutoff (one away from the button). I raised it up to $8, my standard raise. The player on the button just called my raise. The flop came 4-6-7 with two hearts. I bet out $15 and he raised it up to $55. A huge raise which screamed to me that he had top pair. I reraised up to $175. And he quickly went all-in. I had about $150 left and he had me covered. What should I have done?

I mean, the whole point of my reraise was to see if he really had the goods and he passed the test. By reraising me all-in, I should've known that he had a good hand, right? If I'm going to call his reraise anyways, then why not just push all-in on the flop?? See what I'm getting at? I reraised to find out what he had. He pushed all-in telling me that he had a made hand. The correct play would've be to fold, unless, of course, I put him on a bluff, which I didn't. I ended up calling his all-in and he turned over pocket fours for trip fours which held up. $350 gone.

I keep making these same mistakes over and over again. I should know better. My poker game has gone to shit lately. I think it's time to make another trip up to AC to fix my poker game...

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

What I've been doing right...

Okay, here's what I've been doing right over the past few trading days. First off, here's today's 2-min intraday chart with the 13, 20, and 50 period moving averages.



Now, I was always able to figure out the M-top and W-bottoms, but the one thing that I did not use before was RSI. I know, RSI doesn't always give you the correct direction of a stock, but neither does any other indicator. However, I've found that RSI is a good indicator of when I should be looking to enter a stock and/or when I should be looking to sell the stock.

The first M-top. Notice how high the RSI was on the first top. Definately a sign that a consolidation or drop was coming. The second top made a much lower RSI reading, but it was still close to the 70 mark, which made the YM shortable. I didn't take this entry because it was still before 10am.

The first W-bottom. Notice how the YM made a lower low, but the RSI made a higher low. This is called a bullish divergence, which means that the second dip was buyable. I entered at 10763. Actually, I doubled down on my long position because I failed to take a stop on my first lot. Anyways, make note that RSI was below 30, which wasalso a signal to buy. And volume declined on the second bottom from the first bottom.

The breakout failure and 180 degree reversal. Some people may have bought the breakout at that point, but if they looked at the RSI, they would've noticed that it was way too high. That's why I didn't buy the breakout. Then, the following bar, was a 180 degree reversal red bar, which started a huge downslide. I got caught in one of these last week and it cost me about $1500. It a lock that if I looked at the RSI, I would never have entered that trade. This breakout failure should've been shortable too, but I'm still learning how to trade these, so I did not enter the short position here.

The second W-bottom. I did not take this one either, but notice the signs. Declining volume, RSI below 30, higher RSI on the second bottom, etc. It was a gimme. An agressive entry would've been at the low on the second bottom. The less agressive entry would've been to buy on the first dip after the breakout.

The third W-bottom. I didn't take this entry either, but the same signs were there. Not only that, but the bottom was formed on a 50% fibonacci retracement of the prior move up.

I don't know if anybody will even read this, but I think disecting the intra-day action helps me become a better trader in the long run because it helps me see things that I may have missed during the trading day.

Market recap...+$1259.06

Another good day for me. Since last Friday, I've been strictly trading the YM and I have $4,850 in profits to show for it. Yeah, I know, 3 days does not make a trader, but it sure does make me feel good. I'll probably stick to trading the YM for the near future, unless I start losing money.

The funny thing is, I didn't even know what the YM was just 4 months ago. I spent $450 for two months in the Pristine.com e-mini chat room. Even though the moderator was an idiot, I learned a crapload from him. Before I joined that room, I was still trading using the 15-minute charts. Now, I trade mainly with the 2-minute charts.

Also, I must say that I owe a lot to Daytradeteam.com. Even though I've lost money in the majority of their stock picks, I've learned a hell of a lot from their trading style. I hardly ever used RSI before I joined that chat room. Now, I can't trade without it.

When I joined those two chat rooms, my sole intention was to learn...I didn't join to make money the easy way. It's all about knowledge for me, not about the quick fix. In hindsight, I'm definately glad that I paid the money to join those two rooms. I recommend to anyone who's serious about trading to pay the money and learn from the pros. It will accelerate the learning process tremendously.

Alright, I'm out. I had another bad session at UB last night. I'm down about $3k right now. The bad beats were absolutely ridiculous. It's gotten to the point where I will no longer play at UB because I don't feel as though I have total control over how much I win or lose at that site. In my opinion, there's something seriously wrong with their gaming software. And no, it's not just because I lost money there. I've played thousands and thousands of hours online and I know when something is not right. UB is not right.

With that said, I'm going to grind it out at Party. I need to make up the $3000 that I dropped at UB and the $850 that I dropped at $1/$2 NL last week. That reminds me, I "conveniently" forgot to write up the fact that I dropped $850 last week in the game that I said I was going to wrap my winnings around in a rubber band and smack the other players in the face with it. Call it embarrassment, call it whatever you want...but one thing is for sure, those beatches will pay for taking my money. Pay, I say. Beatches.

Alright, I'm done for the day. I'm out.

80 point run!

Oh man...I can't believe I missed that 80 point run! Holy crap. From 10780 to 10850 in 20 minutes. I did get some of those DIA SEP $108 Calls at the bottom, though. Unfortunately, I'm only up about $150 on those right now...peanuts.

With 10 minutes left in the trading day, there's no chance that I'm getting into a position right now. I would hold some YM overnight, but RSI is pretty high up here and I should have a chance to buy slightly lower tomorrow morning. Besides, holding a position overnight kills my sleep.

Longer term plays...

I shorted 300 shares of GLD at $64.10 and I just bought 5 contracts of DIA SEP $108 Calls. My target on GLD is around $57-$58 and I'm pretty bullish on DIA, so I'm going to hold those for a while...

Covered 5 YM at $10791 for +$500

Damn...I've been on a mad tear since last Thursday. $5200 profit, not including today's gains...

Short 5 YM at 10811

Down we go now.

I'm going to buy some DIA SEP06 $108 calls. I'm looking at 4 or 5 contracts in my SEP IRA, which only has about $1300 in it. I'm pretty bullish on the Dow right here.

Covered 10 at 10806 for -$20

Alright, better not step in this bull's way. Commissions are killing me more than anything today. 5 contracts cost me $9.60. 10 contracts would be double that at $19.20. A little more expensive than trading stocks.

Short 4 YM at 10824

Make it an even 10 contracts. Not good to fight the trend, but it's way overbought here and there's resistance at this level. RSI is ridiculously high. TICK is not making a new high. We go down now.

Short 6 YM at 10798

Overbought...I'm just looking for a short term drop for 10-15 points...

Just realized that I accidentally shorted 6 contracts, not 5.

Opportunities...

I haven't been able to find very many opportunities today, hence the lack of trades. DTT has been calling quite a few stock trades today, but to be honest with you, I'm doing pretty well trading the YM, so I don't see why I should go back to stocks...unless, of course, I find a very nice opportunity.

Out 5 YM at 10760 for breakeven

This does not look good. We could be in for a bigger dip...

In 5 YM at 10759

New low on the day after a fast fluid move to the downside. RSI is very low, volume declined slightly on that last dip and the TICk is making a bullish divergence here. All signs that a bounce is imminent.

Out 5 YM at 10792 for +$75

I just lost commission on that trade...I never should have held my first 5 contracts for that long.

Out 5 YM at 10786 for -$75

I'm gonna take half off of the table right here for a small loss. I wanna make sure I don't get in trouble.

In 5 YM at 10763

I should've taken my stop on the first lot, but I still feel pretty confident about my position right here. I'm doubling up.

Trading pit...

Not sure if any of you guys watch CNBC during the day, but I would pay some serious money to be in one of those exchange pits for a day. They just showed the energy trading pit and there were guys screaming and flailing their hands all around...I can't imagine the excitement of trading every day in that pit...

In 5 YM at 10814

Here's the first bottom...

YM Chart

Look at the M-top and the lower high on the RSI on the second top.

Out 5 YM at 10849 for +$350

RSI made a lower high, which is a bearish divergence. It looks like we're going into consolidation mode for the next few hours because we are nearing overbought conditions on the 60-minute chart...

In 5 YM at 10835

Go figure, I reentered my position at the same point as when I initially sold it. I should've just held and I would've saved on commission.

Out 3 YM at 10835 for +$483

I tell you what though, I got the absolute worst sleep last night. I woke up every 10 minutes starting at 6am.

Going higher...

We're going higher today. Buy on the first bottoming signal.

Monday, July 17, 2006

Good day today....+$2460.60

Giddy up. Time to make my online poker money back...

In 3 YM at 10802 - holding overnight...

Yeah, I'm gonna do it. If history repeats itself, then the YM should gap higher tomorrow morning. It's been a while since I've held onto a position overnight...in my daytrading account, that is. I'm only doing 3 contracts to reduce my risk.

DTT is recommending GOOG as their overnight gapper. I like GOOG long, but I'm not a big fan of holding that puppy overnight because I've seen it gap down big before...and I'm sure it wasn't fun for those holding it.

Out 5 YM at 10797 for +$375

Funny...right aftre I sold, it went up 15 points in no more than 30 seconds. DAMN! Oh well...

I'm sooo tempted to buy and hold the YM overnight as I still think that it's oversold right here and that we'll most likely gap up tomorrow...

Long 5 YM at 10782

Let's go...

Covered 5 YM at 10784 for +$550

RSI is making a higher low, which is a bullish divergence. We're probably nearing a bottom here. I may even buy dabble on the long side here...

Covered 5 YM at 10801 for +$50

Shit...I got scared. We're dropping now. I still have 5 contracts at 10806.

Short 5 YM at 10803

Looks like a bear setup to me...I'm doubling down...tight stop on half above 10809.

Short 5 YM at 10806

Okay...let's try ONE more time....

Covered 5 YM at 10812 for -$100

It looks like we're going lower, but this could also be a double bottom...so I'm playing it safe. Always better to be safe than sorry...

Short 5 YM at 10808

Let's give it a shot again. All signs point to lower prices...

Covered 5 YM at 10811 for breakeven

Ehh...we're in a stalemate right now. I'm gonna wait for a trend to develop. I'm trying not to do anything stupid...

Short 5 YM at 10811

I'm gonna give it a shot right here. RSI is high, I see a lot of topping tails, and the TICK made a lower high on that last runup. I'm gonna keep a tight stop above 10818.

Covered 5 YM at 10800 for +$150

F it...lunch time...

Covered 5 YM at 10804 for +$225

Still holding the other half at 10806. It sure looks like we're going lower from here.

Short 5 YM at 10813

Doubling down.

Short 5 YM at 10806

Alright...I was right the first time, but I just got sucked out...I'm back in now.

Covered 5 YM at 10820 for -$325

Damn...I had to double up on the one time that I was wrong... Every time I think that I have the market figured out, I get humbled by a trade like this...

Covered 5 YM at 10816 for -$225

Yup...definately getting greedy. I like the topping tail, but I don't like how it didn't break down after that topping tail.

Short 10 YM at 10807

I'm getting greedy now...I'm doubling my contracts...

Out 5 YM at 10809 for +$1075

Damn, I'm en fuego today. I took 43 points out of that one! I think that disecting last Friday's intra-day chart helped me out a little bit. Let's keep the train going...I want to make some REAL MONEY today...

In 5 YM at 10766

We're turning here. RSI made a higher low on that last dip and 10760 was Friday's support level. Volume declined on that last low as well. And I saw two bottoming tails...giddy up.

Covered 5 YM at 10787 for +$575

Wowsers! What a friggin drop! I was just in that trade for a scalp...I wasn't expecting carnage...

We've retraced 100% from the morning runup...this is not a good looking day for the longs. I'm not going to fight the trend, so I'm gonna go with the flow all day today.

Short 5 YM at 10810

Just for a scalp...

Covered 5 YM at 10822 for +$350

Damn, it's almost 10 points lower from my exit point right now...

Short 5 YM at 10836

Just for a scalp...

Oversold...

We're definately oversold here, but I have a feeling that we're going lower before heading higher though. And from similar situations in the past, it looks like we'll most likely close around the same point as when we started the day. They call the pattern a "long legged doji" bar. Rememeber, bottoms aren't formed in one day.

Time for bed...

It's 2:18am and I'm tired as crap after multi-tabling $2/$4 NL for about 4 hours. At one point, I had 7 tables going at one time. Talking about action...I recommend you guys trying it some time. 7-tabling while watching Entourage...wtf am I thinking? Sometimes I wonder if I have ADD or not.

So, I ended up getting a little bit back. $600 to be exact. Actually, I was down another thousand during that four hours, but I redeposited another thousand and won back $1600. I'm only down $1700 now. Yeah...only. MF'ers. F online poker. It's such a friggin grind.

Bed time...market opens in 7 hours.

Don't mess with the players running hot...

Here's a prime example of folding every hand against a player who's running hot:

Hand #32811527-51718 at Gloucester (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 17/Jul/06 00:13:52

Ash099 is at seat 0 with $1989.40.
OSOIRIE is at seat 1 with $145.50.
Zilios is at seat 2 with $674.70.
mikech is at seat 3 with $348.80.
boogster is at seat 4 with $518.20.
mugen1985 is at seat 5 with $192.10.
The button is at seat 5.

Ash099 posts the small blind of $2.
OSOIRIE posts the big blind of $4.

Ash099: -- --
OSOIRIE: -- --
Zilios: -- --
mikech: -- --
boogster: Ks Kc
mugen1985: -- --

Pre-flop:

Zilios folds. mikech calls. boogster raises to $18.
mugen1985 folds. Ash099 re-raises to $57. OSOIRIE
folds. mikech folds. boogster calls.

Flop (board: 6h Tc 5h):

Ash099 bets $75. boogster calls.

Turn (board: 6h Tc 5h Jd):

Ash099 checks. boogster checks.

River (board: 6h Tc 5h Jd 8h):

Ash099 bets $125. boogster calls.



Showdown:

Ash099 shows Ad Ah.
Ash099 has Ad Ah Tc Jd 8h: a pair of aces.
boogster mucks cards.
(boogster has Ks Kc.)


Hand #32811527-51718 Summary:

$3 is raked from a pot of $522.
Ash099 wins $519 with a pair of aces.


This guy had $2000 at a $400 max $2/$4 NL game. This means that he won $1600 just from that one table. And I was actually sitting at two other tables with him. He had over $1000 at the other two tables as well. When a player is running this hot, there's no point in playing any hands with him because he's going to win most of the time anyways. We've all been there before. Pocket Kings and I know that I'm going to lose the hand.


Boy, does it feel good when I'm the one sucking out on them:


Hand #32811527-51870 at Gloucester (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 17/Jul/06 01:19:29

xcaliberx21 is at seat 0 with $156.20.
Frank Been is at seat 1 with $188.80.
Thepuritan is at seat 2 with $390.
3 is at seat 3 with $191.50.
boogster is at seat 4 with $902.
PReDiKT is at seat 5 with $556.
The button is at seat 1.

Thepuritan posts the small blind of $2.
3 posts the big blind of $4.

xcaliberx21: -- --
Frank Been: -- --
Thepuritan: -- --
3: -- --
boogster: Kh Qs
PReDiKT: -- --

Pre-flop:

boogster raises to $8. PReDiKT folds. xcaliberx21
folds. Frank Been folds. Thepuritan calls. 3
calls.

Flop (board: Kd 2h 6h):

Thepuritan checks. 3 checks. boogster bets $15.
Thepuritan raises to $45. 3 folds. boogster calls.


Turn (board: Kd 2h 6h 8s):

Thepuritan bets $70. boogster calls.

River (board: Kd 2h 6h 8s Qd):

Thepuritan checks. boogster bets $125. Thepuritan
calls.



Showdown:

boogster shows Kh Qs.
boogster has Kh Qs Kd 8s Qd: two pair, kings and queens.
Thepuritan mucks cards.
(Thepuritan has Ac Kc.)


Hand #32811527-51870 Summary:

$3 is raked from a pot of $504.
boogster wins $501 with two pair, kings and queens.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

I hate online poker...

God...I hate online poker...UB has been torturing me... I would go up a thousand, then down a thousand and then right back up and then back down again. It's sooo friggin rigged, I can't stand it. I never should have accepted the bonus money. It's such a con because they give you this money which takes forever to earn and then your bankroll goes up and down until they make all of that bonus money back in rake.

Once I make my money back, all $2300 of it...I'm gonna quit forever... (you know that's not gonna happen)...

Man, I've got a lot of making up to do...starting with the $4700 that I lost in AC...

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Trading the YM - Technical Analysis

I got a little bored, so I decided to disect Friday's intra-day chart of the YM. I've shown all of the buy and sell points, but remember this is all hindsight. Looking at this chart after the fact, it's easy to find the buy and sell entries, but trust me, it's not as easy when you're trading it in real time.

With that said, this chart explains exactly what I look for in trades and how I trade.


Friday, July 14, 2006

Daytradeteam on DIA

That's funny...I was the one who told them to check out DIA:

DTT's Take on DIA

Dunzo...+$1131.84 for the day; +$414.56 for the week

Monday was good. Tuesday and Wednesday were bad. Thursday and Today were good. That pretty much sums up my week. I'm content to just end the week on the plus side, as I was down $2400 on Wednesday. It was a tough week for me, but it was definately my own fault. I didn't take my stops and I doubled down on losing positions. Both major no-nos in the trading world. One of these days, I'll be disciplined enough to stop making these foolish mistakes.

Well...time to go enjoy the weekend. I'm out!

Covered 5 YM at 10778 for +$275

Definately pushing my luck...or maybe it's pure skill? Hmm...

Short 5 YM at 10789

So many signs pointing to short term lower prices...I gotta take this one...

Covered 10 YM at 10760 for +$500

For once, my lack of discipline pays off...Okay, seriously, no more trading because I'm definately gambling now...

I got my $750 back and I'm on the plus side for the week now. I'm content.

It a lock that I make a few more trades before the close...I've got no discipline whatsoever.

Remember that scene in Rounders, right after Mikey busts KGB for the first time. He gets all of his money back and he was half way back to paying his professor back. Then KGB starts taunting him..."like a little boy coming in for a quickie..." And then Mikey thinks for a second and says "let's double the blinds"...

I feel like I'm at that same crossroad right now. My goal was to get all of the money back that I had lost in the beginning of the week. Well, I got it all back plus a few hundred. I'm content, but I'm not quite satified yet. I want to end the week with more than just a few hundred in profits....this is called GREED. The FEAR will set in when I'm down a thousand with 10 minutes left in the trading day....

Umm...I think I better quit now, while I'm still ahead................................

Short 10 YM at 10770

I've got a serious problem...

Out YM at 10788 for +$150

I'm up about $430 on the day right now. This market is soooo friggin choppy to trade. To be honest, I don't think it's a good idea to be trading in this environment. I feel like I'm flipping coins for a c-note here. We'll make a new high and then the next 5 bars will be red. We'll make a new low and then we'll surge up 20 points. Friggin crazy. Definately not the ideal trading environment for me.

I may just buy some YM here and hold it until Monday and just call it a day. I'm definately bullish on the YM in this area. There's huge support and we've gone down BIG over the past three trading sessions. We'll see what happens towards to the close...

Out 5 YM at 10784 for -$125

Damn, I didn't like that huge retracement from the multi-hour high. Not a good sign...I'm taking half off of the table...

In 5 YM at 10789

Ehh...I like my money here on the long side. It's the NYSE lunch hour, so the action will probably be slow for the next hour.

Futures trading...

Alright, a lot of people have been asking me about the costs associated with futures trading. Well, I wasn't really sure about the answer to this question until I did a little research myself. First off, in order to open a futures account, you are required to have a minimum of at least $5000 (at Tradestation.com). This is equivalent to a $2,000 margin account, which you still cannot daytrade with. The daytrade minimum is $25,000.

Now, the cost of each futures contract is determined using this method called Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN). Basically, instead of paying $11,000 for each YM contract, you would need cash in your account to cover the profits and losses based on the volatility of the futures contract. So, the "cost requirements" are different for each futures contract.

For the YM, there is an intra-day cash requirement of $1,219 per contract. So, if you buy 10 contracts, you would need at least $12,190 in your account. Here's a list of all of the cash requirements for each of the different futures contracts:

IB requirements

I hope that answers some of the questions posed.

Out 5 YM at 10777 for -$125

Let's see:

3 YM at 10805
3 YM at 10787
4 YM at 10762

10 YM at an average of 10782

I like the YM down here, but I don't want to get overextended to the point where I'm nervous about my position. So, I'm taking a small loss here and holding the other 5 contracts. I will buy more when I see a definate bottom.

In 4 YM at 10762

Not the best idea to keep buying on the way down, but I feel pretty comfortable doing so.

In 3 YM at 10786

Volume declining and RSI made a higher low...signs that a bottom is near. DIA is at $107.39, which should be a support level. I think we go higher from here...

In 3 YM at 10805

Time to start thinking BUY, but don't over-do it...yet. Remember, bottoms aren't usually made with a V shape, they're usually made with a W. Look for declining volume on the second dip.

Covered 3 YM at 10822 for +$195

We're getting dangerously close to support levels. I don't think the risk/reward on the short side is that great right here, so I may just sit this out until we form a bottom and then I'm gonna load up....LOAD UP!!

Short 3 YM at 10835

Covered 3 YM at 10848 for breakeven

Emm...I think I just got suckered out of my short...

Short 3 YM at 10849

Gonna keep a tight stop on all of my trading today and notice that I'm trading less contracts. This volatility could be a killer otherwise.

Chart of DIA

Here's the chart on DIA, which is the ETF for the Dow Jones Industrials. You can use this stock to track the YM.



Looking at this chart, we should see some support around the $107.35 - $107.50 area. DIA is trading at $107.97 x $107.98 right now. Of course, you should always wait for a bottoming sign (double bottom, declining volume, high TRIN, etc.) before entering the position. Don't forget that this stock is still a falling knife and you know what they say about falling knives right? Don't try to catch em.

Covered 3 YM at 10843 for +$225

Nothing like a little early morning scalping for a gain...

It may take a few hours for the market to settle...the trend is down right now, and remember, the trend is your friend.

Short 3 YM at 10858

Markets look very bearish this morning. To me, it looks like we're going even lower...the TRIN is at 0.92, which is still a very bearish. The bleeding will probably stop when DIA hits the $107.50 area...

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Market Recap...+$1646.48

Phew...I needed a day like today. I don't think I could've taken another loss. The morning started off pretty bad, but by midday, I was back on my A-game again. It's nice to be on my A-game.

I still have about $750 to make up for my early week losses. I'll work on that tomorrow. Ending the week with a loss ruins my weekends because all I can think about is winning that money back. And I can't do it until the following Monday. Sucks! But tomorrow is a new day...

I'm playing in a $1/$2 NL game tonight...or perhaps a mixed game, not exactly sure yet. It's a friendly game, but a few of the guys have been talking shit, so it's time to shut them up. I'm gonna take their money, put a rubber band around my winnings, and then smack them in the face with it. Dumb bitches. Just kidding. It's a friendly game.

Out 5 YM at 10920 for +$425

Who's da man?!? Nah, just kidding. I wasn't saying that a few days ago when I was down $2400...I can't get too cocky or else the markets will eat me alive...

I'm done for the day. Looks like +$1600.

In 5 YM at 10903

One more time before the close! Ole, Ole, Ole, Ole.

Out 5 YM at 10912 for +$250

I should've doubled up...hah...hindsight is 20/20.

Double up..

As much as I would like to double up here on the long side, I'm not gonna do it. The TRIN is displaying extremely bearish sentiment, which means we're near a bottom. And notice how DIA filled the gap at $108.36 and retraced from that point. The low on the day on DIA is currently $108.34.

In 2 YM at 10902

In 3 YM at 10902

The TRIN is above 2. I may have jumped the gun on my entry, but we're definately bottoming here.

Get ready to load up...

The TRIN is near 2. We're almost at gap fill on the DOW at $108.36, so it's almost time to load up....I'm gonna hold off on shorting because I don't think the risk/reward is that great down here...

Covered 200 SHLD at $144.17 for breakeven

Let's wait and see...

Covered 5 YM at 10917 for +$100

I don't know what it is, but I don't like the looks of this. It looks like we're going down, but it doesn't feel like we're going down...that's enough reason for me to get the F out of my short position...

Short 5 YM at 10921

Alright, let's go for the gap fill now.

Short 200 SHLD at $144.20

Yup...I'm still bearish.

Covered 200 SHLD at $145.05 for +$100

We still have a gap to fill at $108.36 on the DIA. We should go down there at a minimum...so expect continued weakness, but perhaps a slight bounce from here...

Short 200 SHLD at $145.55

Time to make the rest of my money back from SHLD...

Covered 1000 GLD at $64.93 for -$310

From +$400 to -$310. What a joke. F GLD.

Covered 200 SHLD at $145.52 for +$222

DTT is buying the S&P e-mini here. I'm not sure what their reasoning is, but again, they must see something that I don't. I definately see some support here, but I would rather short on the next surge than to buy here at support. That's just my opinion though.

Covered 8 YM at 10961 for +$840

Who wants to go?

Short 3 YM at 10975

Short 200 SHLD at $146.64

Time to get my money back on this bitch.

Short 5 YM at 10985

I think this is it...topping tail, lower high, M-top, and a break of the uptrend line. We go lower now?

Covered 5 YM at 10993 for breakeven

I don't like this sideways action here..we should've gone down by now. I'm gonna sit this out until we get confirmation.