party poker

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Market recap.

I made a late day trade on PD and AAPL that I didn't post. I shorted 500 PD at $84.79 and covered at $85.65 for -$430...OUCH. Then I shorted 500 AAPL at $59.76 on the close. This was a DTT "overnight gapper".

So, I ended up around +$500 for the day. That last PD trade was stupid. I want a better day tomorrow! I wanna make $5k, like the old days.

GOOG - lighter volume retest of lows...

Perhaps today was the lighter volume retest that I've been looking for? GOOG's multi-week low is at $360.57, set a week or two ago on 10.9 million shares. Today's volume is only in the 6 million range right now. Perhaps we'll hit the low tomorrow morning, then bounce from there? I don't know what will happen, but this could be a good opportunity to get my money back on that bitch.

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.71 for +$30

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.74

This is a DTT pick. First one that I've played today. Good thing because their others haven't been too good:

SP Emini: -4 points
AMZN: -0.99%
GOOG: +0.11%
GOOG: -0.14%
AAPL: +0.62%

Covered 500 PD at $85.01 for -$175

This is what I get for gambling! I should've waited for the market to settle before entering a trade.

Short 500 PD at $84.66

Covered 500 PD at $84.80 for +$150

I'm a little bitter that I gave back so much of my gains. PD went all the way down to $84 at one point. Oh well...the market looks like it may be trying to stage a rally here...and the FMOC minutes is coming out at 2pm, so I'm gonna stay positionless until then.

Looking at all of my intra-day charts, it looks as though a lot of people shorted on that last drop, which means that they're all stuck at the bottom now. If we rally, we could rally pretty hard...I'd avoid the short side right now...

Covered 1000 AMZN at $34.25 for +$250

Ehh...I just got back some of my losses on AMZN from earlier...

Covered 600 SNDK at $56.84 for +$276

I'm covering here because yesterday's low was $56.80. Usually, this is a support level.

Short 600 SNDK at $57.30

Couldn't pass up this easy op to make quick money.

Short 500 PD at $85.10

Back to the usual suspects.

Out 500 RMBS at $25.07 for +$300

Looks like a short term top in the market. Probably a good time to look for some shorts...

Short 1000 AMZN at $34.50

I'm back in...the market looks like it's turning.

Out 500 PD at $85.18 for -$315

Damn...three good trades, two bad ones...

Out 500 RMBS at $25.05 for +$265

I'm holding the other half for possibly higher prices...

Out 1000 AMZN at $34.49 for -$670

MF'er. I should've taken a shorter stop loss. I'm bitter about this trade...

In 1000 RMBS at $24.47

Out 500 RMBS at $24.26 for breakeven

I don't like it...it should've taken off by now...

In 500 RMBS at $24.26

I'm only doing a half lot because this stock is actually downtrending, but way oversold on the weekly chart...so we could see a nice sizeable bounce...

In 500 PD at $85.81

Covered 500 PD at $85.04 for breakeven

Alright...I'm seeing a bit of market strength here...let's give it a minute...

Covered 1000 RMBS at $23.98 for +$420

Good start to the morning.

Short 1000 AMZN at $33.83

AMZN is weak as shit...I probably won't get too much out of this short, but perhaps I can get some lunch money.

Short 500 PD at $85.04

Let's give it another go. I should've went long after I covered the first time...

Covered 500 PD at $84.70 for +$425

Short 500 PD at $85.55

I'm doing the opposite of what I said in this morning's trade ideas...

Short 1000 RMBS at $24.40

This stock looks weak...even though I said that I liked it long this morning. AMZN looks weak too...it should be shortable as well.

Up a little early this morning...

Looks like we're gapping up a little this morning. I still have no idea which way this market is going though. Should I be buying on weakness or selling into strength? No clue...so, I guess we'll wait and see. Here are some ideas though:

RMBS long
GOOG long
IVAN long
SNDK short
PD long

Looks like a day to buy, I guess?

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Good day today...

+$959 on the day, after commissions. I actually made quite a bit of trades today. I tell you, it's good to see how other professional traders operate. These guys at daytradeteam.com makes me realize that grinding it out for small percentage gains is the better way to go. These guys aren't risking $1000-$5000 on every trade like I was doing before. They scalp...they take their stop losses...and they're not greedy...these are all characteristics of a disciplined trader, which I am NOT, yet.

Anyways, I like their setup...so, I've decided to spend the $995 for the yearly subscription to their chat room. As a daytrader, it gets real boring sometimes, sitting here all by myself watching CNBC, with no one else to share ideas with, so being in this daytradeteam chat room allows me to get another good trader's perspective on the market and it keeps the boredom away. $995 for the whole year is a small price to pay, considering amount of money that I make and lose every day. And don't get me wrong, I'm not affiliated with these guys at all, so I'm not profiting by promoting them. I enjoy promoting good service and these guys represent good service.

Okay...enough with the yapping. I might be playing some poker tonight...not quite sure yet.

Covered 1000 YHOO at $32.00 for +$20

Peanuts. Maybe I'll use this money to go watch X-Men III later.

Covered 1000 SNDK at $56.86 for +$340

Short 1000 YHOO at $32.03

Short 1000 SNDK at $57.20

Stop at $57.35. The 2-min chart looks like a bull flag pattern, but let's see if it's a trap or not.

Out 1000 RMBS at $26.16 for -$90

Oh well...looks like the market was not strong enough to go higher...

In 1000 RMBS at $26.25

Heh...I'm back in...just like that. The markets appears to have made a W-bottom. You know, when I say "the markets", I'm usually referring to the S&P e-minis and DOW e-minis. I have 2-minute charts up for both of these indexes. Now, if we can only push to new highs, then my RMBS should follow suit...giddy up.

Out 1000 RMBS at $26.23 for breakeven

Ehh...the market can't decide on a direction right now, so I'll just sit here and wait until I see a it go one way or the other.

Covered 1000 SNDK at $57.27 for +$270

I'm starting to like this style of trading much more. As much as I love being in aggressive high risk/high reward situations, there's no way that I can survive the swings without the discpline. I also like going to sleep at night positionless and starting every day as a new day...

In 1000 RMBS at $26.23

RMBS looks way oversold on the weekly chart, which also makes it oversold on the daily chart. The reason I say this is because RMBS is a strong stock (trading above the upward trending 20 and 40 period moving averages) that has pulled back hard over the recent weeks. Now, it's trading right in between both of the moving averages which makes it more of a long than a short. So, with that said, let's give it a go...

In 1000 SNDK at $57.00

Looks like a possible W-bottom? The market looks like it's bouncing off of the lows, so let's see if we can get a decent sized bounce here. If not, I'll be out quick.

Covered 1000 YHOO at $32.21 for -$190

There's always one bad apple. Oh well...it's lunch time.

Covered 600 QQQQ at $38.90 for +$30

Lunch money.

Covered 1000 SNDK at $57.21 for +$400

Grinding it out...

Short 600 QQQQ at $38.95

DTT pick.

Short 1000 YHOO at $32.02

Covered 1000 YHOO at $32.09 for +$250

Nice...my 5 day trial ends today. I might just have to pay the $995 for the 1-year subscription. I like these guys...they seem to know what they're doing.

Short 1000 SNDK at $57.61

It's already down 2 points, but it still looks bearish.

Short 1000 YHOO at $32.35

A DTT pick. The setup looks pretty good...we'll see what happens.

Market Direction?

The market could go either direction today. I looked at some charts this weekend and I didn't see anything too compelling. PD looks like it could be a short, but I want to see it go up to the $89-$91 area before I short. Other than that...everything else looks iffy. So...I'm just gonna sit back and wait for things to develope before I start hacking away...

Friday, May 26, 2006

No trades today...

I just woke up about 15 minutes ago. I ended up playing poker till 7am this morning! I told myself that I'd leave by 2am, but obviously, that didn't happen. I was up around $400 at 2am, then I started playing stupid and ended up leaving -$400. I'm so undisciplined. Okay...I don't know if I'll even be trading today because I don't think the market will be moving much due to the long weekend ahead.

We'll see what happens, but I'm not going to force anything.

Thursday, May 25, 2006

Covered 1000 RMBS at $26.79 for -$40

Tough day today because I had no idea which way the market was going. It's a lot easier to trade when you know the market direction for the day. Anyways...I'm down about $400 in the past two days. Small losses, big gains...that's what daytrading is all about...I should've told myself this before the google trade!!

In 1000 RMBS at $26.83

Giddy up.

S&P e-mini trade ... -$200

I just made a S&P e-mini trade for -$200. Dammit. Lunch time.

Covered 650 SNDK at $58.74 for +$84.50

I wanted to see a quick drop, but that didn't happen, so I'm out. When things don't go my way immediately after I enter a trade, it usually means that there's something wrong with my entry point. Although, I'm watching SNDK right now and it's dropping...I should've waited another 30 seconds...dammit...

Short 650 SNDK at $58.87

I tried for 1000, but only 650 got filled.

Covered 250 SNDK at $58.00 for -$100

This is the last of my $800 Chipotle's burrito. That damn burrito was NOT worth $800! No chance I'm leaving them a tip.

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.95 for -$420

Oops and Ouch.

Covere 250 SNDK at $58.42 for -$205

Ehh...I just covered half at the 50% retracement. Looks like it's going lower, but I just wanted to make sure that I didn't get myself stuck in a bad situation.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Undisciplined trader...

I'm such an undisciplined trader. Who goes to lunch at 2pm with two open positions? 2pm is like the prime time for trading. I must say though, that Chipotle burrito was well woth the $500 that I lost. Nah, just kidding...when I got back on my computer, I was still able to sell my position at about the same price as when I left, but I didn't. And then, both SNDK and QQQQ proceeded to go higher until the close. Friggin sucks. And get this, I'm at Starbucks right now, logged on through my money Verizon tethered Blackberry 7130e that gives me high speed internet anywhere. That same money phone stopped working at approximately 3:58pm, two minutes before closing. I was going to close both positions, but I missed the closing bell, so now I'm holding...hoping that we gap lower tomorrow morning! I could probably sell after hours, but I've sold sold anything after hours at Interactive Brokers before. I'm going to just hold.

So, getting back to my original point...I'm such an undisciplined trader. When I write my trading plan, the first rule is going to be, "no going to lunch with open positions, especially during prime time trading hours". My second rule will be "better not break rule number 1".

Alright...it was a good day until I left for lunch. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

BTW...I won $639 last night in $1/$2 NL. I'm going to write a separate post about that later on. Have a good day.

Alright...I'm leaving...

I'm going to lunch with my two short positions open...I hope I don't come back here to see them ridiculously higher...I'll be bitter if that happens. 2:16pm now....I'm out.

Lunch...

I need some lunch, but I've got two open positions...what do I do? I don't know about you, but I hate it when I go to lunch and my open positions go the wrong way. Then, lunch ends up costing me $500. The life of a daytrader...

BTW...today is definately a Chipotle day. So bad, yet so good.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.53

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.43 for +$40

Short 500 SNDK at $57.60

Alright...I'm lowering my position size because I don't wwant to get caught in the middle of a bounce...

Covered 1000 SNDK at $57.74 for +$130

Dammit...I missed out on about $200...oh well, c'est la vie.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.47

I don't normally play the Q's, but DTT recommended it, so I'll give it a shot. The intra-day chart does look very bearish, so I can probably make a few hundred from this trade...

Short 1000 SNDK at $57.87

I can honestly see this stock trading around $51-$52 over the next few days...

Short into strength...

Today is definately one of those short into strength days. My guess is that we'll continue to go lower over the next few days to sweep out all of those who are still long this market. Then, once we get all of these bullish guys out, we'll make a moderate bounce, perhaps a 40%-50% retracement from high to low, which will be shortable. The intermediate term trend (2-5 months) is changing and we're right near the beginning of this trend change. BUT, with that said, this trend change is not necessarily a bad thing. Every healthy market needs a consolidation...and we're getting it now... Be careful..and don't do anything stupid.

Out 1000 RMBS at $27.14 for -$10

Ehh...forget it. If it's going to $27.50, it's going there without me.

In 1000 RMBS at $27.15

This is a small lunchtime scalp. I'd be happy with $100 - $200 on this trade...

Covered 500 SNDK at $58.42 for +$685

Like I said...all I need is one of these and I'll get all of my money back! Dude...Sweet...Dude...SWEET.

Covered 500 SNDK at $58.95 for +$420

I'm holding the other 500 shares for further downside.

Short 1000 SNDK at $59.78

I just need to hit one of these and I'm golden...

Out 500 PD at $83.07 for -$360

Damn...I'm just getting whipsawed all around today! Friggin sucks!

Covered 1000 SNDK at $60.02 for -$170

Damn...watch it tank now.

In 500 PD at $83.79

Short 1000 RMBS at $59.85

Out 1000 RMBS at $27.98 for -$210

Out 500 SNDK at $59.81 for +$165

In 1000 RMBS at $28.19

Today's action...

Today's one of those days where I have no idea which way the market is going. It's always a lot easier to trade when you know the general direction of the market because then the stocks favor a direction. So, knowing whether to buy the dips or short into strength is key.

All of the market indices are oversold right now based on the McClellan Oscillator, RSI, and price action (bottoming tail on strong volume), BUT I have no doubt that we can see lower prices. We may make one final sweep to the downside before having a sizable bounce, SO I am treading lightly here. I'm going to keep it this way until we have definate pattern.

In 500 SNDK at $59.52

Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Good day...

Almost a +$2500 day today. I wish every day were like this. Anyways, I'm playing in a $1/$2 NL game tonight. Although, I'm not going to stay until 6am like I normally do...I can't function the next day when I play so late. So, the plan is to get there around 8pm, then leave around 2am-ish. I'm out for blood tonight...I have to remind myself to play good and don't do anything stupid...

Covered 500 SNDK at $59.02 for +$260

Good day today. Let's see if I can do the same tomorrow...

Covered 500 SNDK at $59.06 for +$245

I believe we're going lower...but I'm not holding overnight...

Short 1000 SNDK at $59.55

Covered 1000 RMBS at $27.32 for +$410

Pay da man his money

Short 1000 RMBS at $27.73

Dammit...if only I had waited another 15 seconds....BEATCH.

Covered 1000 RMBS at $27.90 for +$80

Cheapy, but I'm trying to keep my win streak alive here. I'm gonna be a little bitter if it drops big here...

Covered 600 PD at $85.00 for +$480

I like it.

Short 600 PD at $85.80

Die market, die!

Short 1000 RMBS at $27.98

I hope I'm right...I'd hate to give back any gains...

Covered 500 RMBS at $28.10 for -$10

I don't know...I'm gunshy today. I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of a trade. If my trade doesn't move the way I want it to within 10-15 minutes, then I'm out.

Short 500 RMBS at $28.09

Stop at $28.25. Target $27.50.

Out ENER at $43.13 for +$420

Ehh...I want to see followthrough immediately after the breakout. Instead, we had a sideways consolidation for about 10-15 minutes. It could still breakout, but it's not as strong as I had hoped...a win is a win though.

In 500 ENER at $42.28

Alright...I'm back in. I sold RMBS too early...I should've only sold half.

Out 1000 RMBS at $26.66 for +$790

Out 500 ENER at $42.00 for -$165

Dammit. Oh well. One thing that I noticed about these guys at Daytradeteam.com is the fact that they mainly go for scalps. I mean, they'll take 10 to 20 cents out of every trade, unlike me, where I'll win and lose a thousand or two thousand on every trade. Perhaps I should be scalping like these guys to reduce my risk? Making $200 on a trade leaves me unsatisfied though...I want the big money. That's one of my problems, I guess. I should probably treat daytrading more like a job instead of a game...hah. But then again, what's the fun in that?

In 1000 RMBS at $25.87

Looks like a w-bottom and breakout. Let's see if we can get some momentum.

In 500 ENER at $42.33

Covered 500 PD at $84.30 for -$20

I guess I'm on the wrong side today. I should be buying on dips?

Short 500 PD at $84.26

I'm back in again...

Covered 500 PD at $83.99 for +$10

I wanted to see it drop within 4 minutes. It didn't happen. I'm out.

Short 500 PD at $84.01

For a little scalp. I'll get out if it doesn't drop fast.

Good day to buy today?

It looks like a good day for a bounce. The idea is to buy strong stocks that have gone down over the past week or so. I don't expect this bounce to last very long though because the drop over the past week caused a lot of technical damage. But, with that said, the trend is our friend...let's not fight it.

I'm looking to buy NYX, PD and perhaps GOOG today...the usual suspects.

Monday, May 22, 2006

$1/$2 NL Hold'em last Thursday night...-$767!

Alright...I hate writing about losses, but here it goes. I started playing around 8pm and didn't finish until about 6am. This was last Thursday night. I bought in for the standard $300....and built it up to about $500 after someone straddled for $7 and I reraised with TT to $25. The flop came Q-Q-3...the other player checked and I bet out $30. He reraised all-in for another $85 or so. I called and he turned over K-3 for bottom pair. His five outer didn't hit and I nearly doubled up.

So, that was pretty much my biggest winning hand of the night. There were two hands that costed me a about $600 a piece. One that I made a mistake on and the other hand, my opponent sucked out on me.

First hand. I had A-T offsuit in early position and limped in for $2. There were one or two other callers after me and then the button reraised to $25. A pretty big raise indeed. I don't normally play A-T offsuit to a raise, especially out of position, but the sucker who raised was my nemesis JC. (BTW...I know you're reading this JC...and you're probably laughing the whole way....bastard...). Anyways, I decided to call the flop, everybody else folded. It was headsup. The flop came 6-9-T, rainbow. I checked and he bet out $30. I decided to just call because if he had AK, AQ, AJ, he was pretty much dominated anyways, so I was going to give him the free card and either check raise him on the turn or bet out or let him bet the whole way. So then another T came on the turn giving me top set with an Ace kicker...a strong hand. I wanted to induce a bluff and make it look like I had a hand, but not a strong one, so I bet out $45. Not a huge bet, but a big enough one to let him know that I had something. I wanted to see what he'd do. After a 30 seconds or so, he announced a raise. He raised it up to $125. Another $80 more for me. Now, I put him on JJ or QQ or perhaps even 77 or 88 because I didn't think that he'd raise me in that position without some sort of hand. Well, after thinking for a minute or so, I decided to just call because I still had about $300 behind me and I really didn't want to put all of my money in, just in case he had already made his full house, in which case, I'd be drawing nearly dead. In hindsight, I should've pushed him all-in, but oh well. Anyways, an 8 came on the river. No chance that that card helped him right? I checked because there was still a slight chance that he possibly hit his trips or even a straight. He bet out $150! WTF??!?!? Now, I was stumped. I called him down and he showed 7-4 offsuit. He hit his straight on the river, drawing to 4 outs. JC...you're such a fish...next time, I'm pushing on the turn. Don't ever pull that shit on me again, beatch!

Second hand, I had pocket Aces in the small blind. I reraised the initial raiser up to $40. A pretty big bet coming from me, so I'm sure they knew that something was up. Well, I ended up getting 4 callers. Not exactly what I wanted to see, but I'm still a favorite to win the hand. The flop came 6-8-9 rainbow. I bet out $100 into a $160 pot. The player to my immediate left asked how much I had left and I told him $91. He smooth called my $100 and the other two players folded. A 9 came on the turn. Of course, I went all-in for another $91. He called immediately. The turn brought a T. I flipped over my Aces and he flipped over 77 for the straight. What a friggin bastard! He called $100 on the flop with a 10-outer! Damn, I guess he was almost getting good odds to call, but most good players don't make that call because it's pretty much a coin flip of a decision. I mean, he's putting in $191 to win a pot of $160+ $191 = $351. So, basically he's getting 1.84 to 1 on his money with his chances of winning at (4x10)=40% or 1.5 to 1. I guess it was correct for him to call, especially considering that someone else might call behind him, but like I said, most good players wouldn't make that call because it's pretty much a coin flip. I'd rather make my money when I'm a 4 to 1 favorite to win the hand, or better.

Okay...so those two pots were about $1000 total. I lost $767. If I had won those two hands like I should've, then I would've been up for the night. Am I bitter that I lost? Yes, of course. Am I bitter about the way that I played? A little, but I'm not terribly disappointed. I should've pushed all-in when I had A-T instead of letting that bastard see the river....that was my biggest mistake. Next time, I'll know what to do. I've got to remember that "just calling" in that case is NOT a good idea.

Alright, I'm probably gonna play tomorrow night to try to get some of my money back. Here's my tally for the pat 6 sessions: -$2627.

I'm gonna keep counting until I get that money back.

Out 1000 YHOO at $30.51 for +$190

I'm starting to like these guys...they know what they're doing...

In 1000 YHOO at $30.32

This is a daytradeteam.com pick. I like it myself, otherwise, I wouldn't have entered it.

Covered 500 SNDK at $59.56 for +$80

I still like the short, but it's making higher highs and higher lows...I can't fight the trend...

DaytradeTeam.com

So, I joined the daytradeteam.com trading room today. I've been in there for about an hour now. $5 for 5 days, then $295/month or $995/year. I might do the whole year subscription based on how my 5 day trial goes. I'm definately never doing that pristine.com e-minis trading room ever again because I cannot stand that dude Sean Patridge. He's annoying as crap and even though he's made a crapload of money in the stock market, I don't think he knows what he's doing. I may try Pristine's Advanced trading room, but I hate paying so much money for advice that I can learn by myself.

Alright, so in DTT's trading room today, I learned why these guys use market orders all of the time. It's because they don't want everybody in the room placing orders at the exact same price. Whether they use market orders themselves is unknown, but I'm guessing that they probably do what they say, as I see no reason why they would want to deceive their customers. Anyways, I really like their setup. They have three guys in trading room that run the thing...all probably in their late twenties or early thirties...whiteys. They look like they know what they're doing...we'll see how it goes.

Covered 100 GOOG at $368.27 for -$27

Heh...peanuts, all day today.

Short 100 GOOG at $367.99

Let's see if I can get a few hundred here.

Covered 1000 EBAY at $29.22 for +$10

I'm playing it safe today.

Short 1000 EBAY at $29.23

Out 500 RMBS at $25.79 for -$205

I'm not exactly sure what I should be doing here. Perhaps the best idea is to sit out for today?

In 500 RMBS at $26.20

Short 500 shares of SNDK at $59.64

The past week...

This past week's drop is a prime example of why I don't trade for the long term. Double digit gains wiped out in a week. I've been watching this market all morning and I don't know whether I should be buying on the dips or shorting into strength. The charts say to buy on the dips, but the action says to short into strength. Whatever I do, I'm most likely going to be trading at half lot today. Don't do anything stupid. That's my motto for today.

All signs point to buy...

I was looking over the charts of the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ this weekend and all signs point to BUY, but with this gap down this morning, I don't know now. The McClellan Oscillator is below -180, the RSI hit close to 25, big volume with bottoming tail on Friday....like I said, all signs point to buy. The only positions that I have right now are my 10 contracts of June $420 GOOG calls and my 1300 shares of NMGC. I won't comment further on those holdings...heh...cause they're ugly.

Anyways, after these ugly trades over the past week and my "long term" GOOG trade, I've come to the realization that I have to set up a trading plan because an undisciplined trader is a losing trader. Fortunately, I'm still a winning trader right now, but I can honstely see myself as a losing trader if I don't stick to my stops and I don't have a maximum risk on every trade. They say that those who don't learn from their mistakes are condemned to repeat them. I've been there before...in the hole, waiting for losing positions to come back to life...and then finding my trading account with only a few hundred bucks in it....I don't want to be there again.

On another note, I still have to talk about my $1/$2 NL game last Thursday in which I lost $767. Yeah, it wasn't a very good night for me, but I don't think I made as many mistakes as my loss shows. I'll talk a little more about that loss after the market settles down a little bit.

Friday, May 19, 2006

Crazy day!

Oh man...what a crazy friggin day! Gotta love options expiration day. Early in the week, I was yapping about how there wasn't enough volatility and then, all of the sudden, starting on Wednesday, BOOM...all of the stocks that I watch started going up and down like a yo-yo. Crazy!

Right when I headed off for a little nap today, around noon, it looks like the market made a ridiculous run. I woke up around 2pm-ish, only to find that both PD and RMBS were higher! WTF?!? I knew it...like a fish, I bought at the top and sold at the bottom...pretty much giving away all of my gains earlier in the week! Beatches.

Alright...I'm gonna enjoy the weekend and get ready for Monday. I feel so unsatisfied.

Bed Time...

Alright, I'm out everything. I'm a little bitter right now...I'm heading back to bed. Hopefully next week will be a little more fun....

Ugly, Ugly, Ugly...

Oh man...what an ugly day. PD down 4 pts, RMBS down nearly a point. I see very little to no buying activity. I'm tempted to take my losses and go back to bed. Not to mention that I played poker till 6am this morning and I'm running on 3 hours of sleep right now. And yeah, I ended up dropping $767 back last night. Two crucial hands...both pots around $600...and I lost them both. One hand was my mistake and the other was a suckout. I'll yap a little more about them later...

Today is a prime example of why I need to finish watching that Market Interals DVD. A lot of the market internals were pointing towards lower prices and yet I was buying stocks. I should've been shorting into strength instead of buying into weakness. I feel like such a fish right now...

Thursday, May 18, 2006

I hate PD

What a piece of shit stock. I'm just kidding, PD has been good to me, except it always seems to put a scare in me before I can make money on it...oh well.

In 500 shares of PD at $88.27

Let's see if I can get $500 out of this trade.

In 1000 shares of RMBS at $29.55

Heh...that's all I'll say...

RMBS a buy here?

RMBS looks so compelling right here, but I absolutely hate it when a stock is so easy to buy. If it looks too good to be true, then it probably is true. You know what that means, I'm probably going to do something stupid and buy the stock here...hah.

Out 900 PD at $88.74 for -$81

I'm just content that I got out with a slight loss. PD is one crazy volatile stock. I was down $3000 on this puppy at one point.

$1/$2 NL Hold'em last night...$850 win!

So, I got my groove back. Coupled with a few fishes at the table, I was able to recoup some of my losses from my previous four sessions. With this $850 win, I'm now down $2710 - $850 = $1860 in my last 5 sessions. A few more sessions and I should be on the plus side again.

Overall, I think I played well last night. I played a hell of a lot tighter than I have in the previous four sessions, which was probably the most important factor in my win. Secondly, I told myself that I wouldn't "gamble", even if I was a slight favorite to win a hand, I was going to lay down the better hand and wait for a better spot. Lastly, I adjusted to the different style of play compared to short-handed online poker that I was accustomed to.

So, here were some of the important adjustments that I made:

1) Small raises don't work in loose 10-handed ring games. Before, my standard pre-flop raise was around $7 in a $1/$2 NL game and around $10-$15 in a $2/$5 NL game. Last night, I started raising $10-$15 preflop. The increase seems to be more effective in getting rid of players or increasing the pot size, preflop, which are the reasons why players raise in the first place. A raise is pointless if it doesn't do its job.

2) I said before that if I'm the first to enter a pot, then I almost ALWAYS raise. Well, in last night's game, I realized that limping in with a mediocre hand was a better option than making a small raise preflop. Mainly because making a small raise would essentially give players the pot odds to call any small bet after the flop. So, instead of entering the hand with a raise, I limped A LOT more.

3) I was a lot less aggressive last night. I let the money come to me, instead of trying to beat the money out of people. Meaning, I bet my good hands and just called my mediocre hands. It worked well. And most importantly, I kept reminding myself to "NOT DO ANYTHING STUPID".

All of these adjustments have definately improved my game. I don't know if I'm going to play again this week, but I'm actually looking forward to playing again some time soon. Perhaps Sunday night. I want to continue my win streak and make sure that I just didn't get lucky last night.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

RMBS

RMBS looks like a good play right here. It's trading at $29.11 x $29.13 right now. If I'm right, we should see this stock go up to the $35 area in the next two days. Today looks like a low volume retest of Monday's low. Buy right here with a stop at $28.95...

PD...such a shady stock...

PD opened at $88.75 this morning, then proceeded to go straight up to $92.50 making a V-top. After the V-top, it dropped like a brick, not letting anyone out, going straight down to sub $85. And now, after bottoming around $85...it's proceeded to rally to above $87 in twenty short minutes. Crazy stock. It makes me wonder if this thing is being manipulated or not.

Oh man...PD...

What have I gotten myself into? Who would've thunk that it'd go below $85? I'm confident that it'll go back to the $90 area within the next few days, but boy do I hate seeing these paper losses. It's a lock that I make money on this trade, but what burns me is that I could've bought here...

In 400 shares of PD at $87.37

I'm averaging down. I've got 900 shares at $88.83. I need to get some sleep now...

Out 5 GOOG May $380 calls at $3.20 for breakeven

Dammit, I'm just gonna sit this one out for now...I should just concentrate on trading PD...

Out 5 GOOG May $380 calls at $3.40 for +$100

I keep thinking that it's going higher, but then it can't follow through on it's momentum. So, I'm playing it safe again. I'm looking at the May options again and I'm noticing that the bullishness is building again. It's going to be very hard for GOOG to go higher if the bulls aren't running scared! It looks like $380 - $390 is the target now....

So funny...

This is so damn funny. What the hell was this guy trying to do?


As seen on Break.com

In 5 GOOG May $380 Calls at $3.30

Alright, I'm in for 10 contracts. These are dangerous, so I wouldn't recommend these for the feint of heart...

In 5 GOOG May $380 Calls at $3.10

GOOG looks bullish. It should close between $380 and $400 on Friday...

In 500 shares of PD at $90.00

The volatility is sick today. Up, down, up, down...I love it...trader's dream.

Morning!

Just got done playing poker about an hour and a half ago. Yeah, we played until 7am this morning! I'm running on zero sleep right now. I don't wanna go to bed for an hour, then wake up to catch the market open, so I'm just going to grab myself a big cup of coffee and hope that I don't fall asleep.

I'll yap a little more about my $850 win a little later. I must admit, it definately feels good to have a winning session. Winning sessions are always great confidence boosters. My stash of hundred dollar bills stuffed in my sock drawer was getting rather thin. It's nice to bring back more hundreds than I left with, to make my stash a little fatter.l

I'm falling asleep...the coffee is not working. I might have to skip the market open and zonk out for a few hours...

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Options expiration week...

I thought it was Options Expiration week?!? Where's the crazy, unpredictible volatility that options expiration week usually brings? The last hour of trading was more like watching paint dry! I don't feel as though I got my money's worth today.

Alright, I'm gonna play some $1/$2 NL tonight. I'd say that I'm going to "play to win", but that's what I said the previous two sessions and I didn't stick to my plan. Instead, I played ridiculously loose and "gambled" on 50/50 coin flips for most of the night. That's not my game...I'm better than that. Time to make some money tonight...that's all I'll say.

Covered 900 AAPL at $65.20 for +$243

I don't like the action at $65, so I'm playing it safe.

Out 5 GOOG May $370 calls at $7.00 for -$500

Alright, I'm sick of watching and waiting for this puppy to go higher. Every day that goes buy, make the premium on my calls worth less. So, instead of watching and waiting, I'll just wait until I get a buy confirmation, like a double bottom.

Short 900 AAPL at $65.47

Call me crazy, especially since the stock is already down $2.25, but the 15 minute chart looks very bearish. If it can show me some strength, then I will cover... I'm just looking for a thousand here.

Out 500 PD at $89.67 for +$1235

I was down about $1000 before it popped back up. Once again, my entry was early. I need to fix this problem because it's costing me money.

In 500 PD at $87.20

Like I said, I think PD will close above $90.

Nothing this morning...

I've got nothing this morning. I'm still holding my positions in GOOG and my shorted PD May $85 Puts. That's about it. I still think that GOOG will close at $400 by Friday. I also think that PD will close at $90 or above by Friday.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Back in business...

Man...I needed a day like today...desparately! You know how when you get into that slump and you start questioning all of your abilities? Yeah...well, I was in that "slump" over the past week or two. If you're a poker player or a daytrader, then I'm sure you've been there before. Anyways, you know what they say..."whatever doesn't kill you, only makes you stronger". So...there it goes.

Alright...I'm done with the day. I might be playing some $1/$2 NL tomorrow night. I feel the need to redeem myself from the bad performances over the past four sessions. There's also that wild $2/$5 NL game going on tomororw night, which I may steer clear from for a little while, but who knows...I'll see how I feel tomorrow.

Out 500 PD at $88.96 for +$70

Peanuts, but I said that I was only going to hold for a scalp and it's getting close to closing time. I'll make money on this puppy tomorrow.

In 500 PD at $88.82

This one is just for a scalp. I'll sell at anywhere above $90.

In 5 GOOG May $370 Calls at $8.00

Let the games begin. I did not wait for a double bottom. Hopefully this trade is not going to be one of those, "you never learn, do you?" trades...

GOOG options play...

My GOOG options play is looking better and better as GOOG drops. Not exactly a good selling point, but let me make my case. GOOG May $380 calls are trading at $4.60 x $4.80 and GOOG May $400 calls are trading at $0.90 x $1.00. If I'm right, then GOOG should close somewhere between $380 and $400 on friday. If I short 5 contracts of the $400 calls and buy 5 contracts of the $380 calls, then I'm essentially risking $2400 - $450 = $1950. If GOOG closes at or below $380 on Friday, then I lose $1950. If GOOG closes at $400, then I make $10,450. If GOOG closes somewhere in between $380 and $400, then I still make money.

So, here are my reasons for liking this play:
1) GOOG has gone down 3 days in a row (today will be the fourth).
2) The open interest for GOOG May $380 puts is at 15,100 and the open interest for $380 calls is only 5,600. Simply put, the put-to-call ratio for GOOG May options is very favorable for bulls.
3) GOOG has gone from $450 to $373 in less than one month.
4) The risk-to-reward ratio on this play is more than 1:5.

All of these factors make a favorable case for me to go long here. Looking at the call options, I may go with the $370 calls instead of the $380s, which are trading at $9.50 x $9.80 right now.

Short 10 PD May $85 Puts at $1.00

Alright, now I'm bullish on PD. I'm short 10 contracts of the PD $85 puts, which means I can make a maximum of $1,000, so long as PD closes above $85 on friday. However, my risk is huge because if it goes below $85, I will lose $1000 for every dollar below that level.

I will probably protect myself from this position by either selling before the close today or buying some June puts? I'm not exactly sure what the correct strategy is here because I don't know all of the different options strategies.

Out 5 PD June $100 Puts at $12.00 for +$1750

Phew...

Out 700 PD at $90.49 for +$2744

Talk about a bad risk to reward ratio. I risked $5600 to make $2744. Ewwww...god damn was a I nervous when PD gapped open at $102.85.

It's Monday!

Phew...I knew I was right about PD. It gapped down over 3 points this morning. As far as GOOG, well, that's a whole different story. I'm going to be looking to cover my PD as close to $90 as possible. It could go lower, but I doubt that it will go much lower than $90.

Friday, May 12, 2006

GOOG play...

Alright, I think I may have found an options play for GOOG. Buy May $380 calls trading at $7.50 x $7.70 and sell May $400 Calls trading at $2.05 x $2.15. I'd probably do 5 contracts, so if GOOG closes at $400 next Friday, I can potentially make about $6000 with a maximum risk of $3000.

GOOG

GOOG is one ugly stock. The only good thing is that for every 10 points the stock drops, my options only drop a point or two...heh. I still don't think it will close below $400 by options expiration next friday, so...do I dare to buy more here?

PD target

The new target is $90. Almost back to even. That's pretty sad, isn't it?

Thursday, May 11, 2006

No way GOOG closes below $400 next Friday...

There's just no way. My guess is that we close at the low today, then gap up tomorrow and head back up to $400 over the next week. Wishful thinking perhaps?

DIE PD, DIE!!

I wish PD would just die already. Damn, did it make me sweat, especially after gapping up over 2 points in the morning. Talking about shorting a stock way too early!!!

PD...down 2 points; 5.8million shares, almost 6 points off of it's intra-day high...

Now...that's what I'm talking about...

GOOG retest?

Looks like GOOG is going to retest $388. Ehh...I hope it holds?

PD...wow.

You know what this chart looks like?



It looks like the chart of what should've happened to GOOG. Yeah, the pattern is identical to the pattern that many strong stocks display on their final run higher (e.g. EBAY). Unfortunately, if that's true, then PD would top at $112. I shorted at $94.41. Not only would it top at $112, but the top will not end for a few weeks or perhaps even up to two months.

You know what they say about people who don't learn from their previous mistakes, right? Yup, they're (I mean, I'm) condemned to repeat them.

Okay...now, I need to figure out how to make the best out of a bad situation.

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Good article on Options Pricing...

NY Times Article - The Mystery of the Stock Price and the Strike Price

Hate it...

I hate it when all signals point to lower prices, but the stupid stock just won't go down. I wish the stupid shit would just drop already...DIE, DIE, DIE...and pay da man his money.

I have a feeling that I'm going to have to sweat this one out for another day or two.

PD short squeeze...ouch!

I'm definately feeling the pain right now...but I'm still confident. I feel as though this is the blow off top, which I prematurely entered...

Nothing...

I've got nothing this morning. Just watching and waiting...

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

GOOG +$14.22 at $409.00

Even though GOOG went up 14 points today, I still hate that damn stock. Anyways, things are looking up. It closed at it's daily high on pretty strong volume. Considering that we had a pretty fluid move downwards over the past two and half weeks, we should have no problems going back up. A 50% retracement from high to low would make the target $420. Looking at the Put to Call ratio for May options, GOOG will most likely close between $400 and $410 next friday.

So, the plan is to ride it up to the $420 level, then take some of my June Call options off of the table.

PD closed with a little bit of a topping tail today on average volume. There are sooo many May Calls on this stock that there's no way it can continue to go higher. Let's see what happens tomorrow before I get overly excited...

NMGC. Yeah, I still own 1300 shares of this puppy. It's actually made a nice move up to $5.16 on decent volume. It still has a long way to go though...

Alright, let's start making some money again dammit...

In 5 PD June $100 Puts at $8.50

I said...we're going down dammit...

Feeling the pain on PD...

The setup this morning was definately very bullish. Unfortunately, I entered this puppy at the wrong time. We're definately going lower, but it looks like we're going higher first...

Out 5 GOOG June $420 Calls at $10.40 -$2750

Yeah....I dumped some this morning before the runup...I still have 14 contracts...eeeeekkkk...F GOOG. $420 is the target on this latest runup.

Short 700 PD at $64.41

I got in a little early on my short...let's see what happens...

Hot one...

I've got a hot one for this morning. Short PD. It's trading at around the $93 area right now. My target is a minimum of $90 and possibly $80. Time to make my GOOG money back...

Monday, May 08, 2006

$1/$2 NL last night...another $1100 loss!

So, I played in a $1/$2 NL game last night. Although it was labeled as a $1/$2 game, it was more like a $2/$5 game as most players had over $500 behind them. Actually, we turned it into a $2/$5 game by the end of the night.

Anyways...it was another devastating night for me. In the second hand of the night, I laid down pocket queens to a board of J-5-6 after I got reraised all-in on the flop. The other player had A-J. That started off my night on the wrong foot.

By the time I knew it, I was down around $500 or so. I rebought for another $300 bringing my total buy-in to $800. Down to my last few hundred, another player put me all-in for about $300 after we both flopped flush draws. I had a K-3 and he had a 9-J, with a flop of 4-T-Q. He also had a straight draw, but luckily, none of his outs hit and I scouped up a nice $600 pot bringing me back to -$200.

The hand that made me rich (for a moment) was when 2 other players and myself hit our straight on the turn. I also had a freeroll for a flush, so I pushed and both players called. There was over $1200 in the pot. Luckily, my flush hit on the river helping me scoop up a MONSTER pot.

After another hour or two, I was able to bring my initial buy-in of $800 all the way up to $1600. Not only did I get my losses back, but I was about $200 away from making the $1000 that I lost on Saturday back.

Then....the following hand came up. I had AQ in the small blind...the button raised it to $15. I flat called along with the big blind. The flop came Q-J-3 with two hearts. I checked, the big blind bet out $20, and the button called his bet. I knew they were both drawing, so I popped it up to $120. The big blind immediately reraised all-in for another $390 and the button folded. With about $700 in the pot, I was getting almost 2 to 1 on my money with top pair and a big kicker. I was almost certain that the big blind had a flush draw. The question was, did I want to gamble with him? At that time, I had about $1400 behind me, so I wasn't really worried about the money, but I absolutely did NOT want to make a bad call. If he had trips or two pairs, I'd be almost drawing dead. I ended up calling him and my initial guess was correct. He had a flush draw with middle pair giving him 15 outs with 2 cards to come, which actually made him a favorite to win the hand. Since I was getting 2 to 1 on my money, my decision was the correct one. You can probably figure out what happened with this hand. Yes, he caught a heart on the river and he scooped up an $1100 pot! F me.

So, I was still up a few hundred after that crazy hand. I was playing well. I had a shitload of chips behind me and I wasn't scared to put it all-in.

Here's the hand the broke me:
I had AK in the small blind with the kings of clubs. An early position player raised it to $20 preflop. I called, along with two other players. The flop came A-J-3, all clubs. Not only did I have top pair, but I also had the nut flush draw. Everyone checked to the initial preflop raiser, who bet out $50. I called, along with the big blind and the other player folded. The turn brought an non-club 8. Since I was in the small blind, I didn't want to check because then, I'd be stuck not knowing what the big blind would do when the early position player bet out. With my top pair, and nut flush draw, I decided to bet out $150. It was a pretty big bet that told everyone that I meant business. The big blind folded and the early position player called. I put him on AQ with the queen of clubs. The river brought another non-club 8 giving me top pair with the big kicker. I immediately went all-in becauseI wanted to represent a flush and I didn't think any other hand could call me, unless the early position player had trips, which he would've called immediately. He thought for about 5 minutes and finally called me with top two pairs, Aces and Jacks. F me. I dropped another $500-$600 on that hand. I think I made the right play though...I just made it on the wrong player. I really didn't think he had top two pairs though.

JC, if you're reading this...you broke me last night...completely broke my insides. You must've cracked me about 10 times. I guess you were due for one of these nights? Btw...great fucken call...that's all I gotta say. I should've known better than to try that move on you.

Well, I ended up dropping $1100 last night, so the pouring rain continues. If my math is correct, I am down $2710 in cash games in the past four sessions. The money that I've lost is secondary to the hurt that I feel inside of me. It makes me wonder whether I am a good poker player or not. This feeling kills me more than any amount of money would ever hurt me. Okay...well, I am going to take a break from the cash games for a little while (a week or two), but to be honest, I don't think that I'm going to be able to stay away for long because I feel the need to redeem myself. I will definately stay away for a week though, just to clear my head.

Pristine.com - Fundamentals vs. Technicals

I'm reposting a Trading Lesson of the Week by Pristine.com that was sent out on November 19, 2005. Read it.




Fundamental Vs. Technicals
By Paul Lange, Moderator of The Pristine Method® Trading Room,
and Private Mentor in Pristine's Private Mentorship Program



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ever since the first mathematician plotted some sort of graph that compared price to time, there has been a debate about whether price patterns or the basics of the underlying security are better predictors of price movement.

Investors who believe that fundamentals are the primary reason to buy and sell stock are relying on the underlying economics of the business itself, the industry, and the economy as a whole. They look to things like the balance sheet of the company, earnings reports, and raw material supply. They look at the experience and depth of the company's management. They look at economists' outlook for the industry. They look at the prime rate and if the fed is likely to cut rates. They tend to hold for a longer term, largely due to the fact that the things they are basing their decisions on do not change overnight. Most 'fundamentalists' would agree that they would not buy AMZN in the morning and sell it in the afternoon based on fundamental reasons.

Traders who believe that technical analysis is the primary reason to buy and sell stocks are relying primarily on three beliefs. "Technicians' believe that the price is a total reflections of all forces in the market, and this includes all economic and fundamental information. They believe that prices move in trends are repetitive, sometimes in a predictable way. They believe that people's emotions are a large driving force in prices, and these patterns can be seen in charts. Technicians will hold stocks for a variety of time periods, from a small part of the day to weeks or months. However, they do not believe in the 'buy and hold' philosophy.

I have given you a quick summary of both approaches. However, I am not going to deceive you. From here on out I am going to show you why I believe the technical approach to be the superior one. This is what Pristine teaches and I completely believe. When I started out I went through this same dilemma, like I am sure many of you have. At one point believing that only fundamentals are the way to buy and sell stocks. Then later believing that only technical analysis was the way to go. Usually, when dilemmas like this hit, we land somewhere in the middle. This is not the case. I am way on the side of technical analysis being the best, and only, buy and sell indicator.

Notice above that I used the term 'investor' for the fundamentalist, and the term 'trader' for the technician. This is a reflection of the longer-term outlook you must have when using fundamentals. Due to the many changing things in the market place, we believe that the concept of 'buy and hold' is no longer valid. There are several reasons, but consider the following. Years ago the major companies were more industrial in nature. They had big plant that required big start up costs. No one could open up a competitor to General Motors over night. It took huge resources. Today many of the biggest companies are high tech. Computers, related devices, and software. This technology changes quickly and almost anyone can enter the field with a good idea and some creativity. It is the concept that 'two kids in a garage' can bring a company to its knees. Consider Iomega. A disk that holds 100 Megs of information when the standard was 1.44 Megs. They get a deal to be standard equipment on all computers. Sound like a long-term investment. That is, until someone discovers that you can to the same thing on a compact disk for less money. Iomega must change and adapt or have a new product, or they are out of business overnight.

Was there money to be made in Internet companies in the 1990's? There were stocks that went literally from one dollar to hundreds on some cases. They did this on no earnings; no earnings predictions for next year, and on borrowed money. No fundamentalist could justify purchases in most of these. Yet, technicians had a field day.





Chart courtesy of Mastertrader.com



Even if you do believe that fundamental should figure into the equation, how do you handle the realization that we really don't know what the fundamentals are? The Enron debacle has opened the eyes of many investors to what has always been the case. Companies can twist things any way they like. What information can you believe?

Despite the belief to the contrary, it is the technical trader that has less risk than the fundamental investor. In all things, we can be more certain of what will happen tomorrow than we can of what will happen next year. Technical traders sell losing positions as a part of their philosophy. Fundamental investors hold under the belief that all is well until the fundamentals that were the basis for their entry change. It brings up an interesting question that many fundamentalists have a hard time answering. Just when do you enter a stock based on fundamentals? When do you take profit? When do you cut your losses and move on? The answers to these questions are usually random numbers, or they simply do not exist.

At Pristine we believe in making our decisions from charts. Our core trades, which are designed to last weeks to months, may be long term in nature, but still get their primary buy and sell signals from charts. You will find that fundamental information is usually reflected in price changes in the stock before it is reported as a fundamental change. It is not that technicians believe that fundamentals are 'wrong'; it is simply that we believe they are already built into the charts.

I hope this article has been of help to you if you are going through the stages of this ongoing debate.

Out 20 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.25 for -$100

I'm actually happy to see this small loss...lot #3.

Out 20 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.15 for +$600

All of this sweat for $600...lot #2.

Out 25 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.95 for +$250

Waited a long time just to get even....lot number #1.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

When it rains, it's pours...

So, I played in a live action $2/$5 NL game last night. I ended up dropping $1000 straight. Yeah, that's 3 zeros next to the "1". I made a few bad plays and I'm still playing way too loose, but overall, I wasn't disappointed in the way I played. I just didn't get very many hands last night and when I did, I didn't get any action on them. Give me a few sessions with these same guys and I'll eat them up.

I'm so used to playing short handed NL online that I'm forgetting how to play the 10-handed games, especially with so many loose players at the table. My $15 raises did absolutely nothing in these big games. I've even seen a $100 reraise called 4-ways preflop. Crazy loose players with deep stacks and I'm not adjusting well.

In the past three sessions, I've lost:

$250
$360
$1000

Then, playing online, believe it or not, I lost back $8000 over the past few weeks. WTF? I'm still up about $3000 overall, but man, when it rains, it pours.

And I haven't even mentioned GOOG yet. GOOG is a whole 'nother beast, which is causing me a little pain right now. F GOOG.

Alright...time to regroup. There's a $1/$2 NL game tonight. I'm most likely going to go try to win some of my $1,000 back...to be continued...

Friday, May 05, 2006

NYX

9 million shares traded, +$3.11. The secondary offering of 25 million shares just priced at $61.50. Now that the secondary has priced, perhaps we can make a little run here. I had an order in to buy some May $60 calls yesterday, but it was $100 more than what I wanted to pay for it...I'd be up $2.3k right now...you know what they say about hindsight!

Thursday, May 04, 2006

Stock plays...

I wish I had some plays for you guys, but I haven't made any plays myself. I'm sitting here clinging onto GOOG like a frigging junkie hanging onto his needle. I have a feeling that GOOG will make one last run to $388.40 or slightly below before going higher. The only way to go higher is to make everyone believe that we're going lower... A break of $388.40 would trigger the sellers....

$1/$2 NL last night...

I played in a live action $1/$2 NL game last night. I ended up dropping $360, but that was actually a win. Yeah...I was stuck around $600 at one point. The hand that broke me was when I had pocket Aces, I raised to $7 like always, and then there were two limpers before the big blind reraised to $21. I thought for a second and reraised another $100. The two limpers, in between, folded and the big blind went into the tank. After a few minutes of deliberation, he even said "I can't believe I'm thinking about folding this hand...", he put me all-in for another $130 or so. Of course, I called immediately. The pot was now close to $550! The flop came 2-7-9. Another 7 came on the turn. And yup, you guessed it...a King came on the river.

After the hand was over, he said that he was pretty certain that I had pocket aces, yet he couldn't get himself to fold his hand. And the majority of the players agreed with him that there was "no way" that he could fold his pocket kings. I've said this many times before and I'll say it again. The mark of a GREAT poker player is being able to fold inferior hands. Simple as that.

You think the pros are who they are because they put other players all-in with inferior hands? No, it's because they know how to make big laydowns and they know how to maximize their profits and yes, they know how to lay down pocket kings to pocket aces.

Honestly though, I'm not bitter at all that this player called my all-in bet because I would do it again in a heartbeat, seeing that I was a 4-1 favorite in a cash game. But what I'm bitter about is the fact that, all of these guys that I play with are friends of mine, and we play to make each other better players. We play to learn from each other. And, of course, there's nothing sweeter than taking money from a friend in competition. Getting to my point, I've had this discussion about laying down pocket kings with this player numerous times before. NUMEROUS times. And every time, he's told me that there's "no way" that he could lay down pocket kings even if he knew that the other player had pocket aces.

In the hand last night, I knew that he either had pocket queens or pocket kings after he said "I can't believe that I'm thinking about folding this hand". I wanted him so badly to fold his hand because in all honesty, I wanted to see him to go to that next level in poker...being able to make a monster laydown. But in the end, he couldn't do it. I felt as though, every single discussion that we had about this hand prior to last night was pointless. It was kind of like, an AA member going to AA meetings for 6 months, and then at the end of that 6 months, someone puts a beer in front of him and he pops the lid. 6 months wasted. That's kinda how I felt last night.

Alright...time to pay attention to the stock market. Go GOOG? hah.

AAPL

Damn, $72.58 x $72.60! This is a bullish stock. The setup is extremely bullish...

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Go GOOG?

Not sure what else to write about. Hah.

I wish I would've shorted PD this morning. It was a such easy money. SNDK looks like it's making a double bottom here. I definately covered this puppy way too early. AAPL hit a wall at it's previous multi-week highof $72.05. NYX...well, the good news is that there's a lot of open interest in the $65 puts, which should limit the downside from here. Now, if we could only follow through from yesterday's gap up and close at the high....

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Tuesday Market Recap...

I'm so overextended in GOOG right now that I'm scared to get into anything else. Not exactly the position that I like to be in. Well, let's see what happens tomorrow. It'd be nice if GOOG gapped up 30 points tomorrow morning! :)

GOOG

Looks like it bounced off of the 50% retracement level from the low at $331.55 to $450.00. The 50% retracement level sits at the $388-$389 level. The question now is, whether or not it can hold onto it's gains and continue upwards.

This drop in GOOG is the reason why I don't normally invest in stocks for the long term. I friggin hate seeing my gains disappear like this even though I know that GOOG will go higher in the upcoming months. Anyways...let's make some friggin money!

Covered 1000 SNDK at $61.75 for +$1,203

Okay...all I need is for GOOG to make a run now...that's all I need.

In 5 GOOG June $420 Calls at $15.90

Okay...now, I'm loaded up. I'll be honest...this is kinda nerve racking...Hah.

Morning update..

GOOG is gapping, as expected. Now, let's see if we can make a sizable move up today.

SNDK is also gapping, which is not good for me. I'll probably cover above $62.50 if it can break that resistance level.

My focus will be on GOOG this morning. I'll wait for things to settle down first, then perhaps load up?

Monday, May 01, 2006

Monday Market Recap...

Damn...what the hell happened to GOOG? Honestly though, I think something like today was needed in order for the stock to go higher. Too many people were and still are very bullish on GOOG. Stocks don't go up when Joe Public is the one who's bullish on the stock. Hopefully, the massacre that happened today, was the end of the slide. If GOOG gaps up tomorrow, I'll be looking to buy more. Most likely June Calls. May calls are way too risky.

NYX...this stock is a dog, but I think we're bottoming here as well. There was a lot of Put action over the past few trading days, which is a good sign for us longs. Options don't expire for three weeks, and if my memory serves me well, then we should see a pop closer to options expiration day. We'll most likely close at $75 in three weeks.

SNDK. I called this one right. Unfornately, I haven't captured the gains on this puppy yet because my target of $61.21 did not hit before the close. I will most likely cover my short position tomorrow morning.

Alright, let's make some real money tomorrow...

Physical Therapy time...

Physical therapy starts today and lasts for 6 weeks, 2 times a week. I tried to schedule my PT sessions during the "duldroms" period (12:15pm to 2:00pm), but the first few sessions were not available during that time. Oh well, hopefully, I'll be able to catch the market close today.

I set my SNDK to cover at $61.21. It's pretty far away, but I think it will hit that point by tomorrow at the latest. SNDK is trading at $62.30 by $62.32 right now.

GOOG, I'll be looking to buy more GOOG at the close today. We should see the trend change starting tomorrow. Today was just a day to weed out the weak.

Short 500 SNDK at $62.82

I'm back up to 1000 shares again.

Pristine.com - Market Internals DVD

I've been watching this 4 hour long DVD on Market Internals given by Greg Capra. Supposedly, people who trade without knowing how to interpret the market internals are only half way to becoming a professional daytrader. Hopefully, learning how to read these market internals will help me become an even better trader.

For those of you who don't know, Market internals represent the "health" of the overall stock market. They give us a sense of direction of what to expect in the markets for the current day.

How often do you wonder which direction the market is going for the day? If I knew that the market was most likely going to trend downwards for the day, then I could look for short opportunities instead of long opportunities. See what I'm getting at?

Anyways, the DVD has been pretty dry so far. I'll probabl end up watching this thing 3 to 4 times before I can grasp all of the concepts that he teaches. I'll write something up for it when I'm done.

Btw...I spent about $200 on this DVD. You can get it at pristine.com.

GOOG

What the hell is up with GOOG? Well, here's what I see. We're in the process of bottoming here. It filled the gap at $416 this morning and touched it's 20 period MA. Even if it closes at its low today, we should still see strength over the next few days because GOOG is a strong stock that has been down for 3-5 days in a row.

The most likely scenario would be for GOOG to retrace about 50% from its high at $450, which would put the 50% retracement level at around $429. Then, it would come back down to retest the low at $412.19 on lighter volume, creating a double bottom. If that happens, then we should see a continued march towards my target of $512. Giddy up.

AAPL

AAPL is continuing to make news highs without me! WTF? I've been touting this stock forever and it's finally making a nice move and I'm missing it. This is a classic example of a novice trader (me) at work. When AAPL was in the 70s in late February/early March, I was yapping about how it's going back up to retest the highs. Well, it never happened. As a matter of fact, for the next month, it drifted lower, all the way down to the 58 area. Going down 10 straight trading days towards the bottom. I was buying long the entire way down. And then, BOOM, within a matter of a week, it retraced 100% back up to $70 on strong volume.

I caught a small piece of that move, but missed the majority. I even shorted the damn stock at $64.87 and watched it, as it continued on it way up to $72.05.

What I'm getting at is, I was bullish on this stock for months, but for some reason, I ended up buying on the way down, shorting on the way up, and now, I'm sitting on the sidelines as it continues its march to new highs. A classic example of trader emotion.

Anyways...the tides have turned for AAPL. The 20 and 40 period MAs on the daily chart have turned upwards. It's even made a nice W bottom. If it can break $72.05, then it would be a buy on the first dip. And we should see my initial target of $100 within a few months.