party poker

Saturday, April 29, 2006

$1/$2 NL Hold'em on Thursday night..

I ended up dropping about $250 in a 5.5 hour session. I know I played way too loose, I know I was way too aggressive, and I know I shouldn't have "gambled" as much as I did, but Thursday night was all about "action". I just wanted to have some good old fun, which I why I played the way that I did. If I wanted to win money, then I think I could've won, but it wouldn't have been as much fun. Get it? Got it? Good.

Okay...so there were three notable hands.

1) I had JK in early position and raised it to $7. A player in late position, called, along with the big blind. The flop came J93. With $22 in the pot, the big blind checked, and I bet out $15. The late position player called and then the big blind check raised me to $45. I'm not exactly sure what he had, but I wasn't going to let my top pair go without a fight. I called his $30 raise. The turn brought an A. He paused for a second, then bet out $70 into a $137 pot. Pretty weak if you asked me. Not only weak, but how did he know that I didn't have an Ace? Unless, he had a set? So, I just called his $70 bet. The river brought an 8. After the river card came out, he asked me how much I had in front of me. I counted it out slowly and deliberately...$225. He had me covered. He bet out $125. A good bet for a bluff, so I called. He said "good hand" and showed 95 for middle pair.

2) I had AK in early position and raised it to $6. The small blind and the big blind both called. The flop came 9T2. The small blind bet out $15. Both the big blind and I called. The turn brought an A giving me top pair and the nut flush draw. The small blind checked and the big blind went all-in for $93. I'm pretty sure I was beat, but even if he had two pairs, I'd still have a lot of outs. A minimum of 12, and possibly 14. If he had trips, then I'd only have 8 outs, but I didn't put him on trips. Assuming 14 outs, that'd give me about 2.6 to 1 odds to hit my hand with only one card to come. There was only $63 in the pot plus his $93. So, I was only getting about 1.6 to 1 on my money. Not enough pot odds to call. However, I could've had him already beat with my top pair and King kicker. Looking back at the hand, it was a very bad call, but I called. He showed A9 for two pairs. None of my outs came on the river and that was that. Bad play.

3) In the last hand of the night, there was a preflop straddle of $10. Four players called, including myself, with 7J. The flop came 895 giving me a double gutshot. I led out with a $15 bet. Everyone folded to the late position player, who raised me to $40. I called figuring that if I hit my straight, I'd probably bust him. He had about $180 behind him. The turn brought a K. I checked and he checked behind me. The river brought my money card, a T. I quickly bet $75 and before I could even get my money in the pot, he said "all-in". Damn. Did he really have a flush? These days, I rarely see anyone raising with a flush draw to get a free card in No Limit hold'em. In limit hold'em, it happens frequently, espcially if the player with the flush draw is in position, but I don't see it happening very often in NL. Anyways, I didn't put him on the flush, nor did I put him on a higher straight. So, I called and he turned over J2 for the flush. BEATCH.

So, those were the three memorable hands of the night. The next time I play, I'll be playing to win, instead of playing to get action. Action is fun, until I lose money. When I lose money, I get bitter. When I get bitter, I get even. See how it goes? Sounds like a degenerate gambler to me. Hah.

Friday, April 28, 2006

Covered 500 SNDK at $63.94 for -$420

BEATCH. Alright, I didn't want to hold 1000 shares for the weekend, so I sold half for a loss. Counting today, it's been up 5 days in a row and it's at resistance, so we should go down on Monday. All I need now is for GOOG and NYX to go up. Anybody look at AAPL lately?? $71.00 today!! WTF?

Alright, have a good weekend. I'm going to write a post on my live action $1/$2 NL game last night. I ended up dropping $250. I'll write more later though.

Current holdings:

Short Term (up to 5 days)
500 SNDK at $63.10 from 4/28
4 GOOG June $420 Calls at $26.40 from 4/27

Intermediate Term (up to 30 days)
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.75 from 4/25
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.80 from 4/25
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.30 from 4/24
5 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.90 from 4/26

Longer Term (up to 5 months)
5 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.90 from 4/21
3 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.60 from 4/21
2 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.80 from 4/21
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Stop on SNDK at $65.85

Damn...I hope it doesn't hit. It was a bad entry to begin with...time to roll...be back in a few hours.

SNDK Pain

I'm feeling the pain in my SNDK short right now. I've got a doctors appointment in a few minutes here. To hold or not to hold? Ahhhhh....what a mistake huh?

Short 1000 SNDK at $63.10

Let the games begin?

Friday!

SNDK has gone up four days in a row and yesterday's bar had a little topping tail in it, which means, it's most likely due for a breather. I'll be looking to short this puppy all day today.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Somewhat boring day...

Well, looks like I'm holding my 4 GOOG June $420 Calls overnight. Not what I intended to do when I bought them, but I like owning them here. I'll decide what I want to do with them tomorrow.

NYX made a nice bottoming tail today. It bounced almost a point off of it's low of the day to close at $67.80. Not bad, but it still has a little way to go. Ideally, I'd like to see a gap up tomorrow of 50 cents or more.

Alright, I'm playing in a live action $1/$2 NL game tonight. I'm gonna be splashing around money like it's chump change. I'm gonna put people to the test tonight. Let's see if I lose my shirt or if I take everyone's money...to be continued...

Covered 1000 SNDK at $62.32 for +$30

Ehh...I was hoping for a faster drop. I don't like it when I enter a play and it doesn't do what I want it to do immediately, which means that it'll probably go back up. I'm out for now.

Short 1000 SNDK at $62.35

Heh...I couldn't get away...I'm back in again...

Covered 1000 SNDK at $62.34 for +$315

If it tanks even more from here, I'm gonna be bitter...

Short 1000 SNDK at $62.655

GOOG new intra-day high..

It's go time.

Covered 500 SNDK at $62.05 for -$120

Not sure where this stock is going, so I'm gonna sit out until it can figure out a direction.

In 4 GOOG June $420 Calls at $26.40

I couldn't help myself. Looks like a double bottom on the 2-min chart. And it hit my initial downside target of $419-$423. I'm just going to hold these 4 contracts for the day...

Thursday Morning...

GOOG is the focus today. It's been down 4 days in a row, today would be the fifth, but I think we'll find a bottom today, even if it closes lower. I'll be looking to buy GOOG today.

SNDK, bearish gap down. Hopefully it won't retrace too far up to let the longs get out. If it does not go back to the $62.56 level, then we should be headed much lower. It's been up 3 days in a row already and it's a weak stock.

PD, I missed out on this puppy. I initially shorted 1000 shares at $91.31. It's trading at $81.55 x $81.57 right now!! That's a near $10,000 profit, if I would've just held onto my short. But you know how it goes. We could still see lower prices for PD.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

monkey kung fu...

this shit cracks me up!



Get this video and more at MySpace.com

Covered 500 SNDK at $65.23 for -$210

I'm gonna hold the other 500 overnight.

SNDK upgraded...

Looks like UBS upgraded SNDK right after I shorted. Just my luck. I'm down about $500 right now and I'm not happy about it. SNDK is going lower, I know it. I'm most likely going to hold 500 shares short, overnight...and take a loss on the other 500.

Short 1000 SNDK at $61.82

Drop bitch, drop!

Covered 1000 SNDK at $61.72 for -$20

Ehh...it's not time yet...or else I just got squeezed out...

Short 1000 SNDK at $61.70

SNDK might be my new favorite daytrading stock...F AAPL.

New sponsor - Netbet.org

If you look to the right of my blog, there's a new ad for Netbet.org. I'm not a huge fan of cluttering up my blog with advertisements, but I do it because it makes me feel important when people want to advertise on it. It's kinda like when you win a sports tournament and they give you a trophy. The trophy means nothing to you, but it makes you feel important. It makes you feel as though you accomplished something. That's kinda how I feel about these ads.

Both Netbet.org and FullTiltPoker.com pay me $50/month for their ads. A hundred bucks a month means crap to me, but now, if I were to start making a few thousand a month, then that'd be a different story.

In another 5 NYX May $75 Calls

65 contracts now. Boy...this would be an awful time to be wrong about a stock!

NYX - LOAD UP

NYX is setting up nicely here. A lot of people are buying puts around this area, which adds fuel to my theory that it's going higher from here. I've already got 60 contracts of the May $75 Calls. Call me dumb, but I'm thinking about getting more here. I think the potential reward is huge right here and my initial investment is only $5,700 right now.

Well, time will tell...

Covered 1000 AAPL at $67.51 for breakeven

Short 1000 AAPL at $67.51

Just for a scalp.

Out 1000 AAPL at $67.24 for +$380

Minor resistance here at $67.26. I'll look for a pullback and buy slightly lower. The trend is still up.

In 1000 AAPL at $66.865

F it. I'm back it. We're going higher.

Out 1000 AAPL at $66.78 for +$190

Looks like a breakout failure on the 2-min chart, but I could be wrong. The trend is UP today.

In 1000 AAPL at $66.59

No worries. Easy money.

AAPL bottom

We should be able to get at least a point out of AAPL today. Looks like a double bottom yesterday before the close and we should see higher prices...I'm buying...

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

GOOG

Alright, I hate losing money, even if it's on paper. GOOG went down 13.3 points today. I'm sure everybody's asking, just as much as I am, where is it going from here?

Let me bring up a chart first:



Looking at the chart, there's no disputing that the past three days have been very bearish. However, with that being said, I think that the bottom is near. The most obvious bottom would be the gap fill at $416, but I don't think that we're going to make it to the gap fill. My guess is that we'll find support around the $419 - $423 area, which is only 4-8 points from the current price. It may take a day or two to bottom, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Don't forget that we went from $332.62 on March 16th to $450.72 on April 21st. That's a gain of $118.10 in less than 5 weeks. Corrections/retracements are a natural part of every move. Hopefully, the correction will end sooner rather than later, as my options have an expiration date. I'm still confident that we'll go above $475 within a month.

Tuesday Market Recap...

+$1100 for the day. Two winning sessions in the row. This is, of course, not counting my longer term GOOG calls, which set me back about $7,000 today. To be honest though, I'm not really worried because I'm confident about where GOOG is going and when it gets there, I'll be the counting my money. (I hope I'm right )

Well, I'm about to go take a nap now. I woke up at 6am this morning because my knee was aching. And now, the coffee and adrenaline has worn out, so, it's nap time. The life of a daytrader...


Here are my current holdings:

Short Term (up to 5 days)
None

Intermediate Term (up to 30 days)
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.75 from 4/25
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $0.80 from 4/25
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.30 from 4/24

Longer Term (up to 5 months)
5 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.90 from 4/21
3 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.60 from 4/21
2 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.80 from 4/21
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Covered 1000 SNDK at $60.28 for +$260

These late day trades always make me a little nervous, because first off, I don't want to be stuck holding onto to the stock come market close and secondly, I hate ending the day on the losing note. Good thing that I got all of my money back from SNDK. It should've tanked, but I guess it'll have to wait till tomorrow...

Short 1000 SNDK at $60.54

Come on...gimme $1k before the close...

Covered 100 GOOG at $428.57 for peanuts.

Nuff said. I'm wrapping things up here. 20 mins till close.

Out 1000 SNDK at $60.515 for -$115

Oh well.

Short 1000 SNDK at $60.40

Looking for a new pair of shoes on this trade.

Short 100 GOOG at $428.90

Gotta get my LVLT money back.

Out 2500 LVLT at $5.42 for -$225

Dammit, I should've stopped out of this puppy before it broke my entry point at $5.50. Unforunately, I was eating lunch when LVLT broke down. This is why taking lunch at 3pm is no, no for a daytrader...hah.

Out 100 GOOG at $428.73 for +$32

Looks like a double top on the 2-min chart. I said that this trade was for lunch money, so that's what I got...after taxes and commissions, it's more like milk money though.

IN 100 GOOG at $428.39

I'm just looking to get some lunch money out of this puppy.

Covered 1000 PD at $58.54 for +$1160

Looks like a possible double bottom. I'll take my $1.1k here.

Short 1000 PD at $86.70

I know I said pre-market that this puppy was going higher, but from the looks of the chart, this sucker is going down...

In 20 NYX May $75 Calls at $.80

Well, I'm really loaded up now...

update: My last two contracts just got filled. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

In another 20 NYX May $75 Calls at $.75

This has gotta be a steal. I hope I'm right.

In 2500 LVLT at $5.50

I like the bullish gap surprise.

Up a little early this morning...

So, here's what I'm going to watch this morning:

LVLT - Gapping up around 40 cents pre-market. Trading at $5.32 x $5.35 right now. Bullish gap reversal after two down days. The weekly chart is showing a bullish consolidation too, so we could see $7.00 today.

NYX - Gapping down about a point right now at $68.75 x $69.00. This was where the stock open on it's IPO day. It's been down two days already. After today's gap down, we should see a retracement to the upside.

PD - Bullish gap up to $87.50 x $88.00. Wait for the first pullback before buying this puppy. Looks good for at least $1 or $2.

Who wants to make some money with me?

Monday, April 24, 2006

Monday Market Recap...

Alright day today. I was expecting more out of GOOG, but I guess NOT giving up it's gains from Friday is a win. Looks like there's a decent amount of supply overhead, so until we can break through that supply, we're not going anywhere.

I ended up making exactly $199 from my daytrades today. Enough for a some milk and cookies.

Well, I've written too many blogs over the past week. I'm done for the day.

Here are my current positions:

Short Term (up to 5 days)
None

Intermediate Term (up to 30 days)
20 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.30 from 4/24

Longer Term (up to 5 months)
5 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.90 from 4/21
3 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.60 from 4/21
2 GOOG June $420 Calls at $35.80 from 4/21
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

In another 10 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.30

Got 20 now. Let's make some money. I see 20 contracts available at $.50 for the May $80 calls. What's another thousand? If my analysis is right, I'll make $20,000.

Out 2 GOOG May $430 Calls at $31.90 for +$60

Ehh, I was hoping for more, but oh well, it's getting close to the end of the day. I'm out.

In 10 NYX May $75 Calls at $1.30

Buying more soon...

NYX options...

They look so juicy right here, but the intra-day chart is still saying that there's further downside....but...I may just dabble in some right now...the May $75 calls....

Covered 1000 SNDK at $59.10 for +$480

Alright, made my money back from the losses before. +$142 on the day for SNDK.

NYX

Down over 3 points today on relatively weak volume. Get ready to load up on this puppy. I see the $67 area as the maximum downside on this sucker. I'm looking at the May $75 calls trading at $1.30 x $1.45 or the May $80 calls trading at $.50 x $.60. I always like the lower strike prices because I like to maximize my potential reward.

The current intra-day chart is showing a very bearish formation right now. Hopefully, we'll see a quick drop below $70 and then perhaps a W-bottom, then I'll load up. I'll probably get at least 20 contracts.

In 2 GOOG May $430 Calls at $31.60

Just for a scalp.

Short 1000 SNDK at $59.58

Blogger broken all morning.

Alright, looks like we're back in business now.

SNDK plays

I played SNDK about 10 times today. I'm not going to list every trade. The end result was -$328 from all trades, including commissions. From the looks of the chart right now, it may go higher from here.

Short 1000 SNDK at $59.16

POS stock. They took it above it's daily high, then immediately sold that puppy off. Right after I covered, it went all the way down to $59.31 before stalling for a few minutes. And now it just broke out of it's mini consolidation. Watch us go back to the highs again.

Covered 1000 SNDK $59.80 for -$400

Dammit. Bad start. I had a $400 gain on this puppy, then it proceeded to go up 80 cents with zero pullback. I should've taken partial profits.

Short 1000 SNDK at $59.40

I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one. I hope my read is correct. Stop is at $59.80.

It's Monday - Let's make some money.

I get pretty excited for Mondays to come because it's usually the start of a new trading week. I wish I had some super solid plays for today, but the truth is, I don't really have anything too exciting.

I guess GOOG would be a buy this morning, as it's already gapping up $2.40, but I already own too much, so I'm gonna stay away from buying more.

NYX, I'm still waiting for a buy signal on that puppy. I think we'll gravitate towards $90 by the third week of next month, so I'm gonna try to capture as much of that gain as possible. A break of $76 would signal a buy, but I'm going to try to get it lower. I'm looking at the May $80 calls.

ERS looks like a possible short. It's gone up a lot over the past few weeks/months. Time for a breather.

Alright, time to get my coffee before the opening bell, in 3 minutes...

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Daytrading 101

With so much friggin time on my hands, I finally finished my daytrading 101 post. You can also find it on the right hand side under the personal info menu.

David Williams in a Porn movie?

Hah...read this:

http://www.gambling911.com/042306news.html

Can't blame him for "cashing" in on his celebrity status. hah. No way he'll ever live this down.

http://media.putfile.com/David-Williams
http://media.putfile.com/David-Williams2

Jail...

I feel like I've been in jail over the past few days. My knee is all bandaged up, I've been taking all kinds of pain medicine, and I can barely walk. I need my crutches like a poker addict needs his gambling fix. Both of those are true of me, by the way.

So, being confined to my house for the entire day, I played Party Poker for about 12 hours straight. Okay, maybe not 12 hours straight, but close to it. $2/$4 NL wasn't doing it for me anymore, so I 4-tabled $3/$6 NL for the entire time. I ended up dropping around $3,000. Yeah, that's 3gs.

You know, I was talking to a friend yesterday and I told him that I was up over $10gs. He said "I don't want to burst your bubble, but are you sure you're not just running good?". I was like "nah, I'm just THAT friggin good. All that and a bad of chips.".

Well, at least now I know that I was just running good, as he put it. I'm still up quite a bit, but damn, these past two days have put a damper on things. The problem is, I've been getting bored of grinding it out. I get much more enjoyment out of bluffing someone out of a huge pot versus winning a hundred smaller pots. I get much more enjoyment out of calling someone's all-in bluff versus taking down a measely $100 pot. That's my problem. Grinding is what you're supposed to do in order to win. I hate grinding it out at anything that I do.



No more poker today. I'm poker'd out for the weekend.

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Not proud of it, but whatever..

***** Hand History for Game 4061701884 *****
$600 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, April 22, 20:46:23 ET 2006
Table Table 95436 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: johngunn111 ( $201.47 )
Seat 4: Tooth_n_Nail ( $795 )
Seat 6: gskgsadz ( $1208.19 )
Seat 5: boogster ( $877.60 )
Seat 1: TomerSachar ( $739.05 )
Seat 3: Hobbes88111 ( $637.70 )
TomerSachar posts small blind [$3].
johngunn111 posts big blind [$6].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to boogster [ Qs Tc ]
Hobbes88111 folds.
Tooth_n_Nail folds.
boogster raises [$15].
gskgsadz folds.
TomerSachar calls [$12].
johngunn111 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3h, 5d, Ks ]
TomerSachar checks.
boogster bets [$35].
TomerSachar raises [$70].
boogster calls [$35].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
TomerSachar bets [$95].
boogster calls [$95].
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
TomerSachar bets [$275].
boogster is all-In [$697.60]
TomerSachar is all-In [$284.05]
TomerSachar shows [ Kh, Jd ] two pairs, kings and jacks.
boogster shows [ Qs, Tc ] a straight, nine to king.
boogster wins $138.55 from side pot #1 with a straight, nine to king.
boogster wins $1481.10 from the main pot with a straight, nine to king.

Poker Tracker

Okay, I just looked at my Poker Tracker stats. It says that I lost $3542.06 in that one session that lasted 118 minutes. Alright, no more $5/$10 NL until I can get my bluffing under control. Gotta remember that I can't push people around in $5/$10 NL.

I'm up about $800 at the $3/$6 NL tables now, so that'll soften the blow a little bit.

Pounced...

Damn, I just got pounced playing $5/$10 NL. I must've dropped $3,000 minimum. F me. Most of these guys are definately not scared to put their money in the pot, unlike the $2/$4 and $3/$6 guys. I tried bluffing one too many times. The last hand, I had pocket 9s and raised to $20. The guy on the button reraised to $85. I just called. The flop came 3-5-6. I checked and he bet out $100. I called. The turn brought a T. I checked, and he bet out $178. I called. The river brought a K and three spades. I checked again and he bet $255. I pushed him all-in for $987 total. He eventually called with pocket Aces. What a friggin idiot huh?

***** Hand History for Game 4054633825 *****
$1000 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, April 22, 02:52:27 ET 2006
Table Reel Lucky (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: Facial_Hair ( $2908.20 )
Seat 1: boogster ( $1350.50 )
Seat 4: StopLose ( $2129.59 )
Seat 3: listilisti ( $1662.32 )
Seat 5: hubert22 ( $1059 )
Seat 6: TheLightBulb ( $884 )
listilisti posts small blind [$5].
StopLose posts big blind [$10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to boogster [ 9c 9d ]
hubert22 folds.
TheLightBulb folds.
boogster raises [$20].
Facial_Hair raises [$85].
listilisti folds.
StopLose folds.
boogster calls [$65].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, 3s, 6c ]
boogster checks.
Facial_Hair bets [$100].
boogster calls [$100].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
boogster checks.
Facial_Hair bets [$178].
boogster calls [$178].
** Dealing River ** [ Ks ]
boogster checks.
Facial_Hair bets [$255].
boogster is all-In [$987.50]
Facial_Hair calls [$732.50].
Facial_Hair shows [ Ah, Ac ] a pair of aces.
boogster doesn't show [ 9c, 9d ] a pair of nines.
Facial_Hair wins $2713 from the main pot with a pair of aces.

Friday, April 21, 2006

GOOG and EBAY revisited

Seeing that I'm invested in GOOG again, I feel the need to go back and revisit both charts. So, where does GOOG go from here?



Well, if history repeats itself, then perhaps GOOG can go up to $624.24? It seems like an absolutely ridiculous target, but that's what the chart is saying.

From a trading point of view, the first resistance point is at the all-time high at $475.11. That's where I'll be looking to take my first profits. I imagine that it'll hit $475.11 within two to three weeks. After I take profits at $475.11, I will buy back on the first dip, then get ready for the final run to $624.24. Looking at the chart of EBAY, I should have plenty of time to get out of GOOG once it hits the $624 area. If it gets up to that level, I may even look to short this puppy and hold for the ride down, as it should be just as lucrative as the ride up.

So, to sum it up. GOOG should be going to the $475 area within the next three weeks. Then, the final target of $624.24 should be reached within 3-4 months.

Covered 500 PD at $87.77 for +$1,765

I was hoping that it'd go to $85, but that didn't happen. Oh well. It's been a good week for me.

Back in GOOG...

Alright, GOOG drifted lower for the entire day as anticipated. With 25 minutes left before close, we should see a nice little run back up above $440. I decided to go with theh June $420 Calls.

5 June $420 Calls at $35.90
3 June $420 Calls at $35.60
2 June $420 Calls at $35.80

Let the games begin. I want to see $512 in one month.

GOOG

I'm probably going to load up on GOOG before the close today. Most likely June $430 Calls, which are trading around $33 right now.

Covered 100 GOOG at $443.58 for +$376

Guess, I'll make my money back slowly.

Short 100 GOOG at $447.33

Every time GOOG has gapped up big, the price faded throughout the rest of the day.

It's official

I missed out on $28,000. My 10 June $400 Calls are trading at around $60 right now. I sold at $32 & $31.60. F GOOG. I will probably short this puppy on the first runup.

Thursday, April 20, 2006

Oh man...I'm an idiot...

GOOG at $445. AHHHHHHH! F GOOG. Did I call it or what?

http://boogster.blogspot.com/2006/02/who-wants-to-make-100000-in-4-months.html

It's not over yet. If I'm right about GOOG, then there's still another 70 points to be made from this stock in the upcoming months. 70 points could mean $70,000 or more. I've already made about $18,000, so in order for me to reach my goal of $100,000, I'll need another $82,000. Dammit, that's tough.

Alright, I'm gonna do some research tonight and figure out what the best solution is. Giddy up.

GOOG 17% revenue growth...

Damn..strong quarter. I'm a little bitter now, as it's up 20 points after hours. My June $400 calls will probably open 10-15 points higher tomorrow! That's $10,000 - $15,000 if I would've held onto my options! Oh well. There's no guarantee that it'll open that much higher tomorrow. Especially the options, since they cannot be traded after hours. I have a feeling that a lot of April options players will not be able to make a profit on their calls. We'll see.

Covered 500 PD at $87.34 for +$1975

Roasted peanuts with a little bit of salt. I'm holding onto my other 500 shares because I think we're going lower...

Covered 1000 GLD at $61.10 for +$280

Roasted Peanuts.

Covered 350 GLD at $61.07 for +$60

Peanuts.

Max Pain

Here's some more information on the Max Pain Theory:
http://65.108.12.28/cgi-bin/maxpain.cgi


And here's the Max Pain calculator:
http://www.iqauto.com/cgi-bin/pain.pl

Pretty cool that someone wrote one of these things. It'd be nice if someone could write a program that shows which stocks are most extended from their Max Pain points a few days before options expiration. That could be a huge money maker. Huge. Maybe I'll write one...

Short 1000 GLD at $61.38

I've got 1350 shares now. First lot at $61.24 and the second lot at $61.38.

Do ya Booyah?

I keep on seeing the same ad over and over again on CNBC. It's in reference to Jim Cramer's trademark catch phrase. Do ya Booyah? So cheesy. That's gonna get old quick.

Anyways, after I made the few trades this morning, I'm just sitting here now, in trade management mode. I'm listening to this doofus talk in the Pristine.com e-mini chat room. This dude Sean Partridge is the moderator of this chat room. No chance that I'm going to continue my subscription past my initial two months. First off, trading e-minis is a complete bore. Imagine watching just one stock every friggin day...uhh...boring. Secondly, I cannot stand this doofus talking. Most of his plays are losers and he's so friggin high on himself, but yet his trading skills absolutely stink. I can't stand it. He's always buying breakouts, but what he should be doing is, buying the pullbacks AFTER the breakouts. And then, he always uses market orders...I don't think I know any professional trader out there that uses market orders. Who the hell uses market orders?? Especially when each tick is worth probably a hundred bucks for him.

Okay, enough bashing. I'm sure he's a good trader because he's probably got a crapload of more money than I have. And I'm sure he's made most of it from trading. Not to forget that I'm the one listening to him talk and not the other way around.

Alright, I'm playing a little $2/$4 NL at Party right now. I'm just about even. I have so much fun check raising players on the river for huge bets. Once I do that a few times and show my cards, I start getting full action when I have the nuts. It's great...

Short 350 GLD at $61.24

I'm going for round two.

Covered 200 GLD at $60.70 for +$150

I'm just glad to see that I made a profit on this puppy, considering it went up 3 points yesterday. I may reshort.

Short 1000 shares of PD at $91.30

Giddy up.

Back in business...

After sleeping for most of the day yesterday, I'm loaded up on Oxycontin and Percocet now and ready for business. Let's make some money.

In my daze last night, I was able to check out a few charts. First off, take a look at NYX. If you look at the May options, there's huge open interest at $90 and very little at any other strike price. Based on the open interest right now, if NYX closes anywhere above or below $90, then all of the people who owns Puts or Calls at the $90 strike price will make a lot of money, one way or another. So, what I'm getting at is, what price do you think NYX will close at, on options expiration day in May? My guess is $90. Where's it trading at now? $73-$74. So, what's the play? Buy some May $75 or $80 calls. I'm looking to buy 20 contracts. The NYX May $80 calls are trading at $1.50 x $1.70 right now.

What else? Take a look at the options on PD. There's a huge open interest for PD $90 calls. It's a lock that PD closes at or below $90 tomorrow. What's it trading at now? $91. So, I'll probably short it today.

GOOG. There's way too much bullish sentiment on GOOG right now based on the open interest of the April call options. I find that it's going to be hard for it to move much higher after today's earnings announcement. If it does move a lot higher, then a LOT of people will make a LOT of money. That hardly ever happens. I will most likely wait until after earnings to back my GOOG back. Perhaps it'll go down to the $380-$390 area?

Okay...let's make some money, baby!

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

ACL Reconstruction starts today...

Most likely no trading today as I'll be getting my knee fixed up. Apparently, they're gonna replace my old torn ACL with the ACL from a dead person. And in order to secure the dead person's ACL to my knee, they're gonna have to drill a few holes in my bones and put some screws in it. Ughh. I asked my doc if I could stay awake for the surgery, but he insisted that I be asleep. Bastard. If I were awake, I'd probably faint anyways and start squealing like a little girl when they bring the drill out. On a second thought, I'm gonna tell the doc to give me a double dose of that sleep medicine. I don't want to feel any part of that bone drilling shit.

Here's some more info on what they're gonna do to me, for those of you who are interested:

http://www.arthroscopy.com/sp05018.htm

Here are some cool pictures too:








Not sure what the hell they're doing in that third picture. I wasn't told that they'd take a worm out of me....wtf?

Alright, bed time. Gotta wake up at 5am, be a the doc's by 6:15am, surgery starts at 7:30am, and then I should be back home by noon with a new knee.

Trading Performance

I decided to post all of my 2005 transactions mainly because I think it's interesting to see what kind of wins and losses that us daytraders have to deal with on a daily basis. If you look at the trade dates, most of them occurred after August 2005 because that's when I started daytrading full time.

A couple of quick stats:
biggest gain = $6,120.12 (PD Calls on 12/6)
biggest loss = -$4,478.11 (PD Puts on 11/16)
overall gain = $22,976.54

Hopefully, my overall gain will be a hell of a lot more this year. Unfortunately, I'm not using Ameritrade anymore, so it's not going to be as easy to list all of my trades. With Ameritrade, all you had to do was to click on a few buttons and it gave you a list of all of your trades in Excel format. This is not the case with my new brokerage, Interactive Brokers. I'll figure out a way to get the data though.

Anyways, check it out:

http://www.boogster.com/stocks/boogster-2005.htm

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Tuesday Market Recap

Pretty good day today with the exception of that one rotten AAPL trade. Oh well, can't with them all, I guess. Tomorrow, AAPL will report earnings and then on Thursday, GOOG will report. The next few days should be pretty exciting. I haven't decided whether or not I will reenter GOOG yet. I don't want to miss a big rally, yet I don't want to risk the chance that GOOG reports less than expected earnings and having it drop like a brick. I'll decide on Thursday.

Alright, I'm off now. I'm working on a writeup that details my daytrading experience, and how I got into the business. I think some blogger is gonna make me his "May blogger of the month" or something like that. I remember reading it somewhere. I'll be honest, nothing would please me more than being his "May blogger of the month". Nothing. So, if you're reading this, I biting...definately biting.

Hah...alright, enough with the partial sarcasm. Time to decipher these YHOO earnings.

Short 200 shares of GLD at $61.45

I was trying for 1000 shares and I then I tried to cancel it and 200 shares went through. I probably should've covered it already as it was showing signs of strength, but the XAU is nearing resistance right here. It probably would've been a better idea to wait until tomorrow morning before doing anything, but it's only 200 shares, so I'm not that concerned.

$1/$2 NL Hold'em last night...

It's been a while since I've played in a live game. Last night, I got into a $1/$2 NL game with mostly players that I've never played with before. I bought in for $200, most of the other players bought in for $100 and below. I wanted to make sure that I had everyone covered. Early on, I was faced with a lot of tough decisions. I didn't know how a lot of the players played, so it took me a little while to adjust to their style of play.

The one hand that stumped me big time went like this. I had AK in middle position and a player raised it to $8 in front of me. I don't normally reraise with AK suited because I like to disguise the strength of my hand, but the table was very loose and I felt as though I needed to reraise in order to isolate the initial raiser. Well, I got two callers, one in front of me and one behind me. The flop came TJ2. The initial raiser bet out $50. I put him on a J, possibly AJ, KJ, JQ, JT. I ruled out trips because his bet was way too strong on the flop and he wasn't the type of player to bet that strong on a made hand. With my gutshot, flush draw and possibly two overcards, I was definately going to call his $50 bet. I hesitated for a 15-30 seconds though because I wanted him to be scared of what I could be holding. I mean, I could've flopped trips for all he knew, right?? And I would've done the exact same thing....just call. That's the power of just calling.

So, after I called, I sensed that he got a little scared. The turn brought one of my outs, an A. The problem was, if he had AJ, then I'd be drawing slim. He hesitated for a split second and even gave me a little glance, and then he bet out $50. This bet amount told me a few things: 1) he definately had a piece of the flop, 2) he's either slow playing a strong hand or luring me to put him all in, or he's firing one last bluff in hopes that I didn't have an Ace. It was a good bet, but I wasn't going to fold for $50, considering that I now had top pair, a flush draw and a gutshot.

The river brought another 2. He thought for a second and then went all-in. I honestly didn't think that he would go all-in without the best hand because from what I gathered of him from previous hands, he was pretty tight. He had me covered for a little over $125. I was already stuck $475 and if I lost this hand, then I'd be out of money and I would've had to ask someone to borrow some money. I hate doing that shit.

Anyways, I went into the tank. There was roughly $375 in the pot and it was going to cost me about $125 to call. 3 to 1 on my money. Of the hands that I put him on, the only hand that I couldn't beat was AJ. Any other hand and I was golden. He didn't give me any tells either, so it made the decision even tougher. I ended up calling and he said "good call". He showed 9T for third pair. What a friggin idiot, huh?

I think he put me all-in because first off, I was a new player to his game and secondly, he didn't think that I was capable of calling a bluff for so much money. I love putting players like him in their place. Love it. This is one of the main reasons why I play poker in the first place. He ended up busting out pretty early and leaving down a few hundred.

Bluff me once, no problem. Bluff me twice, watch out buddy. Bluff me three times? You're going home fucking early and pennyless, bitch.

So, I ended up coming back and winning $83 overall...thanks to my buddy JC. JC, if you're reading this, you're a friggin fish...hah. Nah, you know I'm just kidding. You were the 2nd best player at the table.

Covered 1000 AAPL at $66.13 for -$110

Okay, I'll admit it...AAPL owns a small piece of me. I should just take the ticker off of my screen and vow never to play it again....but if I did that, then I wouldn't be able to get even, now would I?

Short 1000 AAPL at $66.02

I should probably just stick to trading GLD, but whatever...AAPL doesn't own me. I own AAPL! F AAPL.

Out 1000 GLD at $61.48 for +$260

Damn...I'm liking my trading skills today. Time to make some BIG MONEY though! I want some $17k action like I had yesterday.

Long 1000 GLD at $61.22

Just gonna try to scalp this bitch all day long....err, at least try to.

Covered 1000 GLD at $61.22 for +$180

Maybe I should trade GLD from now, instead of AAPL.

Short 1000 GLD at $61.40

Out 1000 GLD at $61.47 for +$230

In 1000 GLD at $61.24

Covered 10 AAPL March $65 Puts at $2.05 for -$50

I covered this yesterday.

Monday, April 17, 2006

Monday Market Recap...

Even though I "made" a crapload of money from selling my GOOG options today, I don't feel as though I really "made" that much money because this money was already priced in as winnings. The day that I felt as though I made a crapload of money was the day that the S&P announced that they were adding GOOG into their S&P 500 index. That was the day that GOOG went up 25 points in one day. And that was the day that I actually felt like I made a crapload of money.

Anyways, taking profits of $17,000 is ALWAYS nice. Hah.

Longer term (2-5 months)
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Out 1000 AAPL at $64.70 for -$240

Oh man...one of these days again...

In 1000 AAPL at $64.94

I feel like I'm getting see-sawed here or like I'm sitting on a yo-yo...buying high and selling low. I'm pretty sure it's supposed to be the other way around...buy low, sell high.

Out 1000 AAPL at $64.75 for -$175

Gonna sit tight until we find a bottom.

Out 4 GOOG June $400 Calls at $31.60 for +$7092

Alright, I'm all out right now. I don't know...the intraday setup is not that great and I don't want to see another few thousand disappear. I will most likely buy back lower because my target is still $512.

Short 10 April $65 Puts at $2.00

Shorted puts = bullish.

In 1000 AAPL at $64.935

Been waiting for this price for a while now...probably a better idea to wait for a double bottom, but F it.

Out 6 GOOG June $400 Puts at $32 for +$10,878

I wanted to take some profits off of the table before earnings come out on Thursday. I think I'll probably try to buy back lower, but I really don't know how wise it is to hold GOOG until earnings comes out. We'll see what happens... I'm still holding 4 contracts, so it's not like I'm completely out of it.

AAPL

If AAPL gets down to the $64.87 area, then it's time to load up. That's the 50% retracement line from the latest run. Not only that, but it's been down 5 days in a row now. If I would've held onto my short, I'd be up $800 now. MF'er.

Crap

Just missed out on $300. AAPL's trading at $66.03 right now. Another few seconds and I would've been golden.

Covered 1000 AAPL at $66.30 for +$20

I'm getting gunshy these days.

Short 1000 AAPL at $66.32

Giddy up.

Crazy Online Poker Players

These guys play $100/$200 limit hold'em and above:

http://terrencechan.livejournal.com/
http://www.stoxpoker.com/poker-blogs/stoxtrader

They win and lose $50,000 every single day. Pretty sick if you ask me. Here I am losing a thousand or two and bitching about it. I guess it's all relative. I guess if I had a spare million or two, I'd be playing at those limits too.

Sunday, April 16, 2006

Lots of poker...must stop playing..

Man, I played a crapload of poker this weekend. WAY TOO MUCH, if you ask me. Anyways, I ended up losing $3,000 back. Yup...perhaps, I'm getting a little too cocky, raising and reraising and bluffing all of my money away. I'm definately not playing my best poker, as seen from my results over the past few days.

I'm still up quite a good amount though, so I think I'm going to cash out and stop playing for a little bit. I feel as though poker is once again consuming me. Playing till 5am can't be good for my health. Playing for 6 hours straight...no good. You know, winning is quite a great feeling, but when I lose...I feel sick to my stomach. I friggin hate losing. I hate the feeling that I get when I lose...to the point where I'm going to force myself to stop playing because I don't want to have that feeling again...

I can understand why Matasow cried now, when he busted out of the WSOP in 2004. I'm not even close to that bad, but I know the feeling. Even though I'm still up, to lose $1k back, then $2k, and then $3k...it's like watching your own slow execution. Not only that, but I can't get myself to stop playing when I'm down. Especially if someone sucked out on me for $500 or $600. I always feel the need to get even. Definately a character flaw of mine. Oh well, so be it.

Btw...I'm playing some $2/$4 NL at Party while I'm writing this blog. So much for cashing out and stopping, huh? See, I can't even get myself to stop playing. What a junkie I am. Good thing the stock market is open tomorrow...I can get my gambling fix from that.

Alright, I'm out.

BTW...don't try the below hand at home...definately a Phil Iveyesque move:

#Game No : 4002211712
***** Hand History for Game 4002211712 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, April 16, 23:02:50 ET 2006
Table Oceans Ten (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 3: Swordyfish ( $196.70 )
Seat 4: enyoj ( $1854.50 )
Seat 5: Me__Hungy ( $412.20 )
Seat 6: bosko1111 ( $522.50 )
Seat 2: boogster ( $829.70 )
Seat 1: sprchen ( $372.10 )
sprchen posts small blind [$2].
boogster posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to boogster [ 8d 9d ]
Swordyfish folds.
enyoj folds.
Me__Hungy folds.
bosko1111 raises [$15].
sprchen folds.
boogster calls [$11].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 3c, 6h ]
boogster checks.
bosko1111 bets [$24].
boogster calls [$24].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5c ]
boogster checks.
bosko1111 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ]
boogster bets [$35].
bosko1111 raises [$110].
boogster raises [$215].
bosko1111 folds.
boogster does not show cards.
boogster wins $437
Game #4002224084 starts.

Friday, April 14, 2006

Mad Poker Skills

I think my motivation to play poker comes in spurts. Prior to last month, I barely played any online poker, yet over the past month, I've been finding myself playing till the early morning on more than several occasions. Perhaps it's because I'm winning? Perhaps it's because I just finished reading Michael Craig's "The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King : Inside the Richest Poker Game of All Time"? BTW...if you haven't read this book yet, it's a must read. It's not one of the most well written books, but the idea of anybody playing $100,000 / $200,000 limits makes the book a real page turner.

Anyways, I seem to have found a strategy that works well. I've been playing mostly short-handed $2/$4 NL at Party. My strategy is simple: play smart aggressive. When I'm the first to enter a hand, I ALWAYS raise. Always. And I almost always raise the minimum, which is $8. Even if I have pocket Aces. I do this to avoid any betting tells. Betting tells and hesitation plays a big part in online poker. These two things are really the only two tells that are given to you. Another thing is, if a player or two has entered the hand before me, I almost always just call, unless of course, I have a great starting hand, like a high pocket pair or AK/AQ, then I'll raise it up to $12 or $15. After the flop, I almost always bet $15 if I was the one who raised it preflop. If I have a nice straight or flush draw, I bet it. I hardly ever miss a chance to bet because it is the aggressor who wins in online poker. Aggressiveness pays. Any great player will tell you that.

And believe it or not, I bluff. I bluff A LOT. And when I bluff, I bluff big. Sometimes I get caught, but if I do, then I just get more action when I have a big hand. If I don't get caught, then I win a hand that I would've otherwise have lost. One thing that I've noticed about a lot of players is their fear of losing all of their money. You cannot be scared of losing your money. You just have to trust your instincts and skills and then go from there. Almost all great players have this characteristic.

I've built up a nice bankroll over the past month. I'm not afraid to put all of my money in the pot, if I think that the other player will fold to a big bet. This has made me a stronger player. Another thing is, I've learned to trust my instincts. I'm not scared to call a big bet if I think I have the best hand. When you call big bets, players are scared to bluff you and when you make big bets, players are scared to play mediocre hands against you. Once you release the fear of how much you have in front of you, then it'll make you a much better player. Much better.

Alright, it's time to roll. Even though I don't have a real job, I feel like today is the start of a three day weekend for me. Does that make sense? Technically speaking, for me, every day is the start of a three day weekend, right? Ahhh...the beauty of being self-employed.

"It's friday, [I] ain't got no job...and [I] ain't got shit to do!". -Smokey



***** Hand History for Game 3976605955 *****
danielsq22 has left the table.
0/0 Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) - Fri Apr 14 12:53:08 EDT 2006
Table Down Shift (No DP) (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 2: TheMightyZep ( $409.70)
Seat 4: kronofogden3 ( $400)
Seat 6: boogster ( $743.10)
TheMightyZep posts small blind (2)
kronofogden3 posts big blind (4)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to boogster [ 9h, Ad ]
boogster raises (8) to 8
TheMightyZep calls (6)
kronofogden3 calls (4)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jc, Qs, Ac ]
TheMightyZep checks.
kronofogden3 checks.
boogster bets (15)
TheMightyZep raises (48) to 48
kronofogden3 folds.
boogster calls (33)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2h ]
TheMightyZep bets (64)
boogster calls (64)
** Dealing River ** : [ Tc ]
TheMightyZep checks.
boogster bets (290)
TheMightyZep folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: $537 | Rake: $1
Board: [ Jc Qs Ac 2h Tc ]

TheMightyZep balance $289.70, lost $120 (folded)
kronofogden3 balance $392, lost $8 (folded)
boogster balance $870.10, bet $410, collected $537, net +$127

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Out 1000 AAPL at $66.37 for -$1500

Ouch, this was the big one. I'm actually lucky to have gotten out of this one for only a loss of $1500. At one point, I was staring at a $7000 loss!! Luckily for me, I was on the plane when AAPL hit $72.05. And I also made a few bucks on my shorted AAPL puts, which lessened the blow a little bit.

I'm covering my AAPL short here because:
1) Today will be the 5th down day in a row.
2) AAPL earnings are coming out next Wednesday after the close.
3) It's a long weekend.
4) My maximum downside target is $65, so risk/reward is not that great.

Out 500 AAPL at $66.37 for +$45

Poop.

Boring day...

Stocks are barely moving today. Most likely due to the long weekend. While I'm waiting for AAPL to tank, I've been playing a little $2/$4 NL at Party. Still no bad beat central...things are looking good. I've now played over 10,000 hands...

Short 500 AAPL at $66.46

I'm back in. I'm still holding my other 1000 shares.

Covered 500 AAPL at $66.57 for -$180

Oh well.

Market closed tomorrow...

I'm an idiot. Options expire on a market holiday? I didn't even know that the market was closed tomorrow...I must be the only full time daytrader that doesn't know this shit. Whatever...I just got back from a different country and I'm uhhh...jet lagged...yeah...

Short 500 AAPL at $66.21

We're going to sub $65. Risk/Reward ratio is not that great, but we'll see what develops.

Going all-in wrong...

I posted a few weeks ago about why I think going all-in as a heavy favorite can sometimes be wrong...well, I went over to 2+2 and posted my question on their forums to get some ideas from other players. The majority of the players had the same message, "To not want to get all the money in when you are 4-1 or 5-1 is crazy". One even went as far as to say "What site do you play on and when, I need some easy money". Then, another player offered some statistical analysis. He said that if I could narrow it down to 2 hands with 100% certainty, then not going all-in on the turn has a positive EV over going all-in. And then, we have this blogger who posted in his blog about my post. It's nice to know that someone agrees with me!

The great thing about poker is that you can have the exact same hand, yet have it played a thousand different ways by a thousand different people. This is why people continue to play this game, the strategy never ends.

Anyways, I just wanted to give some ideas to the other players. I'm not saying that I'm right, but I think it's important to evaluate ALL of the different scenarios before and after you play a specific hand. In the end, it'll make all of us better players.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Wednesday Market Recap...

I had a lot on my plate today, so I didn't do as much trading as I normally do. Anyways, it was a quiet day in the markets. Most stocks that I follow stayed within a nice trading range for most of the day. Quite boring, if you ask me.

Let's see if we can make some money tomorrow. You know, I'm looking at the daily chart on GOOG and although earnings comes out next Thursday (the day before options expiration), from the chart setup, it almost looks certain to go higher. In my opinion and from my past experience, stocks that display this type of bullish pattern, go higher, not lower. You may think that the actual arnings announcement plays a huge part in whether the stock goes up or down after earnings, but from what I see, the chart is already telling us that it's going higher. I don't know, maybe I'm wrong, but I guess we'll know for certain by COB next Thursday.

Alright, I've got so many little things to take care of. After coming back from the conference, I'm more motivated than ever to make boogster.com the premier poker incentive site in the world. I guess the competitive side of me hates to see so many of our competitors and "players" in our industry yap about how great their sites are and how much money they've made.

Anyways, enough yapping, let's see if I can turn boogster.com into a Fortune 500 company. Or perhaps, I'll be on Forbe's billionaire's list next year?? Hah.

Here are my current positions:

Shorter Term (15 minutes to 5 days)
Short 1000 AAPL at $64.87 from 4/5

Longer Term (2-5 months)
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $22.00 from 2/22
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $18.80 from 3/7
3 GOOG June $400 Calls at $14.30 from 3/9
5 GOOG June $400 Calls at $10.80 from 3/10
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Covered 500 AAPL at $66.51 for +$115

Chump change. I may reenter my covered puts position.

Short 500 AAPL at $66.76

Looks like a bearish consolidation. I've got 1500 shares short right now.

Covered 10 AAPL $65 Puts at $1.40 for +$450

Alright, since I thought options were expiring this Friday, I was going to hold my shorted puts until it expired, but since options don't expire until next Friday, there's still plenty of time to get back in.

AAPL

The latest move on AAPL took the stock from $57.67 to $72.05. A 50% retracement on that move would take it to around the $64.86 level. We're currently trading at $66.76. So, if you want to make some money, load up on AAPL at $64.86...if it gets there. Stocks don't always retrace back to their 50% retracement level.

No wonder...

I was wondering why the AAPL April Put and calls were so damn expensive!! It's because there's still another week and a half left till expriation. Duh!!

April Options Expiration

Damn, options expire NEXT Friday (actually Saturday)! I'm an idiot. I had the options expiration written in my calendar and I didn't even think twice about it. Thanks to the anonymous poster who told me this!

Party Poker

So, according to Poker Tracker, I've put in 93.17 hours at Party Poker since 3/8/2006. Considering that I multi-table (sometimes as much as 6 tables at a time), the hours that I've played are not really a whole hell of a lot of hours, but it can still be considered a decent amount. Anyways, I'm very close to a five digit win. My point is, going back to what I was saying a week or two ago, I think Party may have made a change to their software. Out of the thousands and thousands of hours that I've played online at the various sites, never have I been through such a nice streak over such a long period without giving at least 25% of my winnings back. NEVER.

I'm going to continue playing, hopefully putting in another 100 or so hours over the next few weeks and if the results are still the same, then I'll definately be convinced. Convinced that playing online poker (at Party Poker) is no longer fixed.

Boring day today...

Looks like most of the stocks are trading within their "pinning range". What I mean by that is, since it's options expiration on Friday, the market makers and institutions try to "pin" stocks at a certain price, so that they can make the most money with their options.

To me, it looks like they may be trying to pin AAPL at $67.50 and GOOG will probably close at $400 on Friday.

GOOG earnings comes out in a week, so we may be in for a hell of a ride starting Monday. I've got a lot of money at stake here. Considering that my 10 June $400 Calls are worth $32,000 right now, I could make or lose that much when earnings comes out...stay tuned...btw...F GOOG.

Back in business...

Alright, I'm back and I've got a ton of stuff to catch up on. From taxes to emails to all of the shows on my tivo.

I've got a ton of stuff to talk about. A ton. I'll try to keep my blogs to under 10 today.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

$2/$4 NL at Party Poker in the Airport

It's pretty sick that I can play online poker at the airport. I'm doing a little one-tabling at Party right now. I'm actually down about $190! My flight leaves in about an hour. I'm going to miss the entire trading day. I hope my GOOG continues to shine. I don't get it because Max Pain is at $400 or below. Perhaps yesterday's action was a bull trap? If we can't break yesterday's high of $417.17 today, then yesterday's action was most likely a bull trap.

Believe it or not, I am still holding my 1000 AAPL short at $64.87 along with my short position on 10 April $65 Puts at $1.85. Trust me, this trade was NOT for the faint of heart. I put a stop at $73.05 before I left for Amsterdam and luckily it did not trigger, otherwise, I would've had a pretty ugly loss. I'm glad to see that it's come back down from it's recent highs. I tell you though, never ever will I do this again...I'll be lucky if I breakeven on this puppy...

Alright...gotta go now...down about $180 now, I think it's time to call it quits...

Almost back...

Well, it's about 10:30am Amsterdam time right now (4:30am EST) and my plane leaves at 3:30pm. I should be back in the states by 11pm or so. All I gotta say about Amsterdam is "WOW". This is one crazy place. Anyways, I'll post a full trip report when I get back...

Thursday, April 06, 2006

Casino Affiliates Convention

Most of the readers of this blog know me as a poker player/day trader, but the actual business that pays my bills is boogster.com. I don't normally talk about the business in this blog because, for one thing, I don't want our competitors knowing what we're thinking and secondly, I'm sure our customers wouldn't be too happy if I bashed them about asking too many questions. Of course, I'm just kidding about the second part.

Anyways, I'm going to make a slight exception today and talk about the business. One of the joys of being in the affiliate business is being able to meet all the different people in the business and hearing and learning about all of the different ideas that they all have. And trust me, so many people have found so many different ways to make money in the affiliate business that you wouldn't believe me even if I told you of their ideas.

Well, today, I'm off to the Casino Affiliates Convention in Amsterdam. Yeah, Amsterdam is in The Netherlands, for those of you who didn't know, like me, before I bought my plane ticket. The main objective of these conferences is to meet with the people who pay us, meet with our competitors and partners, and to gather ideas that we could, perhaps, integrate into our own business. It's basically a way for everyone in the industry to meet in one central location and talk it up.

Sike, who am I kidding? Everyone goes there to see the Betcom girls,party it up like rock stars, and smoke the ganja. Here are the photos from last year's conference.

Again, I'm just kidding. It's really a combination of both meeting up with all of the industry partners and having fun in a nice location.

Alright, well, my plane leaves in a few hours here. I'm out till next Tuesday.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Wednesday Market recap...

Alright, the day started off great. AAPL and GOOG, both gapped up big giving me a some nice gains. Then, I decided to short a strong stock (AAPL), which put me into a little bit of trouble. I was actually just looking to scalp the damn thing for 10 or 20 cents, but my entry was F'd up because Ameritrade was running on slightly delayed quotes. When you're trading on a 2-minute chart and the chart is showing supposedly real-time data from one minute ago, then it's gonna kinda screw things up a little bit.

So, I entered the short position a little late and then a few minutes later, I realized that the chart was not accurate. I still could've gotten out unscathed, but I didn't. It formed a w-bottom and took off from there...another $2.45 higher at the close! This is what happens when you don't take stops! This is one of my biggest flaws in which I need to overcome.

Anyways, I don't even know why I shorted the damn stock in the first place. It was a bullish gap above all resistance and I should've been looking to buy on the dips, not sell into stregth. Oh well. Shit happens.

I can't complain too much. I still made good money on the gap up this morning. And my GOOG June $400 Calls went up another $2.90. You know what that means, on paper.

Alright, tomorrow's going to be short day for me and I won't be trading at all from Friday through next Tuesday. More to come tomorrow...

Current positions:

Shorter Term (15 minutes to 5 days)
Short 1000 AAPL at $64.87 from 4/5
Short 10 AAPL April $65 Puts at $1.75 from 4/5

Longer Term (2-5 months)
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $22.00 from 2/22
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $18.80 from 3/7
3 GOOG June $400 Calls at $14.30 from 3/9
5 GOOG June $400 Calls at $10.80 from 3/10
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Sold Cover Puts

Alright, after looking at the premiums on those AAPL puts, I decided to try a new strategy. I sold 10 AAPL April $65 Puts at $1.75. That means, I get to pocket $1750, but I am still short my 1000 shares of AAPL. This is generally a neutral to bearish stance. My risk is that if AAPL continues to go up, then I will lose money on my AAPL short, but keep the profits from my AAPL puts. If AAPL goes down, then I will make money from my AAPL short, but will lose money if AAPL closes below $65 next Friday.

If I'm right and AAPL closes at $65 next Friday, then those puts will expire worthless and I will be $1750 richer. If AAPL closes below $65, then those 10 Puts will be excercised and I will have lost $130. If AAPL goes up another 10 points from here, then I will be SOL (shit out of luck), but in better shape than if I would've just held onto my 1000 shares short.

I think that this is a win/win situation for me.

AAPL April $67.50 Puts

I cannot believe that they're selling these April $67.50 puts for $2.90 x $2.95. It doesn't make sense at all! That's a ridiculous premium. The fact that the premium on these puts are so high adds to my theory that AAPL will close at $65 next week.

I hate AAPL

Man...this beast keeps going up. Not only did I miss out on the big upmove, but I'm also short, which means that I'm down double!

I'm pretty confident that it'll close at $65 next Friday though. I may even sell some Calls, but that could be suicide.

Gawd, I hate AAPL.

I shorted 1000 shares at $64.87. It's at $65.66 right now. I didn't want to give back any of my gains, but looks like it was imminent. Max Pain is at $65, so I should be able to get my money back.

Gonna get me one of these

http://www.digitaltigers.com/zenview-atlas17s.shtml


Out 1000 CALM at $7.55 for +$200

No follow through from yesterday's big day. I don't like it and I'm not going to give my gains back. Stupid low volume stocks, I'm not playing those suckers anymore...

F AAPL

Good thing I held 1000 shares of AAPL overnight!!! I was just bashing myself for holding 500 shares yesterday and losing $370 after the gap down. Today, it gapped up nearly $4.

I just sold all of my shares of $65.01 for +$3650.

I love waking up $3.6k richer. Not to mention that my GOOG puts are $5.00 higher...NICE.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Tuesday Market Recap - Good, Bad, Great...

Good
I made my first decent profit from trading the e-minis today. I made one trade for +20 points, which was a profit of $287.28. Not bad, but I still have about $1100 to make up.

Bad
AAPL beat me up today. It started out with the overnight position of 500 shares. I don't know why I needed to gamble like that. I lost $370 right out of the gate. Then, I made about 15-20 trades, most of them being losers for -$100 or -$200. Net loss from my AAPL trades today? -$1595.75 (you like how I hid my losses deep within this blog entry?) I friggin hate AAPL. If I had a bat,I'd make some AAPL pie with it...

Great
My 10 GOOG June $400 calls went up $8.20 today, which means that I'm $8.2k richer, on paper. I'm starting to like GOOG a little more now.

So, I'm still holding my 1300 shares of NMGC. It doesn't look good though. It's not good when the stock continues to make new lows, but I guess this was somewhat expected after it dropped through the $6.42 support level. Next stop will be $4.50, then perhaps the gap fill at $3.98. It kinda sucks when you know a stock is gonna hit those levels, yet you don't want to sell it.

Then again, if I would've bailed on my GOOG June $400 calls when GOOG went down to $333, then I wouldn't be up $17,000 right now. Longer term means longer term I guess. I'll be patient.

Okay...so, here are my current holdings:

Shorter Term (15 minutes to 5 days)
1000 AAPL at $61.36 from 4/4

Longer Term (2-5 months)
1000 CALM at $7.35 from 3/27
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $22.00 from 2/22
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $18.80 from 3/7
3 GOOG June $400 Calls at $14.30 from 3/9
5 GOOG June $400 Calls at $10.80 from 3/10
1300 NMGC at $6.69 from 3/8

Out 1000 CALM at $7.68 for +$330

I still have 1000 at an average of $7.35. I'm still waiting for it to go to $10. It's a slow mover though.

Max Pain on AAPL

Looking at the open interest for all AAPL April Calls and Puts, it looks like $65 would be Max Pain, meaning, the chances are great that AAPL will close around $65 on April 14th, which is options expirations day.

btw...GOOOOOO GOOG

Different trend on AAPL today

Not sure why I held 500 overnight. I shouldn't have done that. Instead, I should've waited for the trend to develop before trading. Here are the trendlines for AAPL today:



Yesterday, there were two downslopping parallel bars. Today, it's a wedge. A break of either line should signal a buy or a short.

Party Poker

So, I've been playing on Party Poker. $2/$4 NL, $3/$6 NL, and $5/$10 NL. I've been doing pretty well. Based on Poker Tracker, I've put in about 55 hours over the past few weeks. During that time, I've won about $5500. I was expecting the good run to end at any moment, but to my surprise, it hasn't.

I've logged thousands and thousands of hours playing online poker in the past 4-5 years. In that time, I've learned that any time I win that amount of money in a such a short period of time, the run of good cards soon come to an end and then, I hit a streak of horribly bad cards. In those thousands and thousands of hours, not once did it fail.

Am I saying that online poker is fixed? Yes, I am. Am I saying that you can't win at online poker? No, I'm not saying that. You can win, however, I think that there are other factors that determine how much you win. Okay, I'm not going to go into detail about what I think about online poker because I yapped enough about it in earlier posts (check my posts from a year and a half ago).

So, the fact that I've played so much over the past few weeks and haven't experienced that run of bad cards yet, I'm starting to think that with the recent software upgrade at Party Poker, they may have made some significant changes to the software behind the game. Yeah, I still experience the usual bad beat, but there's a difference between a bad beat and knowing that you're trip Aces aren't going to hold up despite your opponent only drawing to 2 outs.

Anyways, I think another 50 hours or so and I'll be able to tell if their software has been changed for good.

Out 500 AAPL at $61.93 for -$370

I shouldn't have held overnight.

I guess hindsight is 20/20.

GO GOOG!