party poker

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Out 100 GOOG at $362.00 for -$450

Dammit. Wrong entry point, so I was screwed from the start. So, I'm still holding:

SHORT 375 ENER at $47.67
LONG 30 ENER March $40 Puts at $.63
LONG 10 ENER March $45 Puts at $1.70
LONG 1 GOOG June $400 Calls at $22.00
LONG 1000 NMGC at $6.90

Alright, I'm out for the day. Have a merry phat tuesday.

Out 5000 DCN at $1.73 for +$100

I wanted to see this stock take off, but I guess the markets didn't cooperate, so I'm dumping this while I'm still ahead. A profit is a profit right???

Out 700 AAPL at $68.50 for +$1687

Alright, just made my money back on AAPL. I'm probably going to lighten my positions before the close. The market looks sick right now...

Short 700 shares of AAPL at $70.91

Just for a day trade.

Short 100 shares of GOOG at $357.60

Just for a day trade.

Out 10 AAPL March $75 Calls at $1.20 for -$750

I hate to see all of these losses in a row, but the chart dictates that I sell em all right now...and I have to follow what the charts are telling me....

Out 10 AAPL March $72.50 Calls at $2.10 for -$600

Out 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.30 for -$100

Liquidationg number 1.

I'm liquidating..

The market is at the top of it's trading range and it looks as though stocks are breaking down, so it's time to lighten the load. I've made a ton of money over the past few weeks...it's time to lighten up and probably go short right now...

Unfreaking-believeable...

HOLY COW, did I get lucky! GOOG dropped about 50 pts no more than a few minutes after I sold it....I would've been down about $10k!!!!

What we have here is a market top....It's time to lighten up and get ready for a little bear...

Out 5 GOOG March $380 Calls at $23.20 for +$1250

A little bitter that I didn't get out of this higher...a win is a win though, I guess...

In 10 AAPL March $72.50 Calls at $2.70

Alright...I'm in deeper.

Look at SNDK too...I got shaken out!!!

Here are my holdings now:

LONG 5000 DCN at $1.72
SHORT 375 ENER at $47.67
LONG 30 ENER March $40 Puts at $.63
LONG 10 ENER March $45 Puts at $1.70
LONG 5 GOOG March $380 Calls at $20.70
LONG 1 GOOG June $400 Calls at $22.00
LONG 1000 NMGC at $6.90
LONG 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.40
LONG 10 AAPL March $72.50 Calls at $2.70
LONG 10 AAPL March $75 Calls at $1.95

Damn, I'm loaded up...

In 5 GOOG March $380 Calls at $20.70

We're going higher...

I'm also going to load up more on AAPL. Bullish gap up this morning.

And watch NMGC closely...we could make some serious loot on this one.

Monday, February 27, 2006

Out 5 GOOG March $370 Calls at $27.40 for +$3850

Okay...I lied. One more trade. I'm bullish, but I just can't hold on to a stock that's gone up 13 pts in one day. I'll buy back tomorrow after the open.

In 5000 shares of DCN at $1.72

Alright, my trading day is done...

Out 1000 SNDK at $61.20 for -$620

CRAP! Fucken, false breakout...I had to take my stop on this one...

In 1000 shares of SNDK at $61.82

Just for a trade. This stock is bullish today. It consolidated for a few hours and now it's breaking out. I'm looking for a few hundred on this puppy.

In 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.40

I'm still very bullish on AAPL.

In 20 ENER March $40 Puts at $.35

Now, I've got 30 contracts at $.61 average. I bought the 20 contracts on Friday.

No trades yet today.

Biggest AC win ever...

I tore it up this weekend. I started my trip with about $2400 in cash and came home with about $8400, a nice $6000 hit. I won most of that money playing blackjack, mostly at the $50 table. I did give the $100 table a try and ending up dropping $3700 in two short sessions!! I think I'm gonna stay away from that deadly $100 table from now on. I also made a run at the baccarat table. I hit em up for about $2500. And believe it or not, I actually had a few nice runs at the craps table. In one of the craps sessions, I walked away with +$1500. Let's see, I also played a little $2/$5 NL and ended up dropping $600. I've got a few hands to gripe about, so I'll share those later on.

All in all, the trip was awesome. I won $3,000 the first night that I was there! Then, as I was about to leave on Sunday, I went over to the Baccarat table and had a ridiculous run for $2500.

Okay, the market is about to open...I'll talk a little more about the bad beats in $2/$5 NL and how they caught a chip stealer at our blackjack table, later on...

Friday, February 24, 2006

In AC...limited trading today...

I'm in AC. I'll be doing a little trading this morning, but I'll probably hold off on entering any new positions until Monday.

After losing a quick $500 on the craps table, I was table to make a mad run on the Blackjack table. I'm up $3k right now...let's see what I end up leaving with!

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Market Recap...

Super DAY today. Probably my best day ever. Here's what I'm still holding:

-375 ENER at $47.67
10 ENER Mar $40 Puts at $1.20
10 ENER Mar $45 Puts at $1.70
5 GOOG Mar $370 Calls at $19.70
1 GOOG June $400 Call at $22.00
10 AAPL Mar $75 Calls at $1.95
1000 NMGC at $6.90

Damn, I'm holding a lot of crap...I guess the only thing that really makes me nervous is the 5 GOOG $370 calls...

Out 625 ENER at $46.975 for +$434.38

I was trying to get out of it all before the close, but it kept upticking. Oh well...I'm still holding 375 shares for now.

In 5 GOOG March $370 Calls at $19.70

I'm a little trigger happy today. Today must be a record for me, in terms of trades made....

Short 1000 shares of ENER at $47.67

I don't know if this is a good trade or not because the chart on ENER looks pretty bullish today, but I still think we're heading lower on this stock...

Out 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $4.20 for +$600

Ehh...I sold this too early/too late, I could've gotten more for it...a few hundred more!

In 10 AAPL March $75 Calls at $1.95

I don't know...I felt like I had to get back in or else I'd miss the run....

Out 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $4.50 for +$1000

I'm still holding the other 10 contracts. I don't feel comfortable holding 20 contracts. I'm still VERY bullish on AAPL, but I don't want to be overextended.

In 1000 shares of NMGC at $6.90

I've been waiting for today to come on NMGC. It's finally time to buy...I think...we'll see.

In 10 ENER March $45 Puts at $1.70

I'm still bearish on this stock. I hope I'm right. Here's what I'm currently holding:

10 ENER March $45 Puts at $1.70
10 ENER March $40 Puts at $1.20
1 GOOG June $400 Calls at $22.00
20 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.3125

Out 10 GOOG March $70 calls at $20.50 for +$6650

Holy crap...I just made a bundle. I bought the initial 5 contracts at $13.80 and the second lot at $13.90 for an average of 10 contracts at $13.85. I guess I can use this money for my trip to AC this weekend...

In 5 GOOG March $370 Calls at $13.90

Looks like a breakout on the 15-min chart. Time to make some serious money...

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Deposited $500 at UB

Not satisfied with losing all of the money in my account, I deposited another $500. After two hours of play, I'm back up to $1143 now. I'm about $130 away from my initial bankroll.

God...I love it when I catch someone bluffing...

Hand #11684684-12543 at Alpine (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 22/Feb/06 17:32:10

Lazio666 is at seat 0 with $700.90.
LuckySanny is at seat 1 with $416.80.
boogster is at seat 2 with $330.80.
sleaterx is at seat 3 with $298.60.
screweddown is at seat 4 with $284.40.
jugglover is at seat 5 with $702.30.
The button is at seat 0.

LuckySanny posts the small blind of $2.
boogster posts the big blind of $4.

Lazio666: -- --
LuckySanny: -- --
boogster: Qs Ad
sleaterx: -- --
screweddown: -- --
jugglover: -- --

Pre-flop:

sleaterx folds. screweddown folds. jugglover folds.
Lazio666 raises to $14. LuckySanny folds.
boogster calls.

Flop (board: 4d Qh 3c):

boogster checks. Lazio666 bets $16. boogster raises
to $32. Lazio666 re-raises to $48. boogster calls.


Turn (board: 4d Qh 3c Ks):

boogster checks. Lazio666 bets $65. boogster calls.


River (board: 4d Qh 3c Ks Jd):

boogster checks. Lazio666 bets $256. boogster goes
all-in for $203.80. Lazio666 is returned $52.20
(uncalled).



Showdown:

Lazio666 shows 2d 2s.
Lazio666 has 2d 2s Qh Ks Jd: a pair of deuces.
boogster shows Qs Ad.
boogster has Qs Ad Qh Ks Jd: a pair of queens.


Hand #11684684-12543 Summary:

$3 is raked from a pot of $663.60.
boogster wins $660.60 with a pair of queens.

UB blows..

Yesterday, I started with about $771 in my account. $500 of that money was from my winnings from prior sessions. I dropped $500 of that amount pretty quickly yesterday, then I clawed my way back to about $491. Today, I just dropped the rest of that $491. So, -$771 in two days! $500 of that was winnings, so I'm actually only down about $271, but even still...I friggin hate it when the cards aren't in my favor....

The last hand, I had KK in middle position and raised it up to $15 ($2/$4 NL). I got one caller in early position...believe it or not, it was the same dude that busted me yesterday...anyways, the flop comes all clubs. He checks, I bet out $35. He calls quickly. The turn brings a blank spade, he checks and I bet out $100. He check raises me all in for another $100 or so. That bitch flopped a flush with K9. God dammit...the software is sooo damn shady....

Now, I'm going to have to deposit to get my money back....and trust me, I'm going to get my money back...

Out 1000 shares of ENER at $45.18 for +$270

I had two nice trades on ENER today!! Woohoo!

GOOG June $400 Calls...

I just bought 1 GOOG June $400 call at $22.00. It costed me $2200. I'm going to hold this puppy for the longer term (2-4 months) and see if my earlier analysis was correct....It's going to be hard holding onto this thing for such a long time because I'm a day/swing trader, but I'm going to try to forget about it...

Short 1000 shares of ENER at $45.45

Would've been nice if I held onto my long and sold here instead! I always sell too early!!!

Out 1000 ENER at $44.87 for +$370

I love quick hit and runs...I just hope it doesn't run up another dollar...

In 1000 shares of ENER at $44.50

I'm just trying to offset my 10 March $40 Puts. I think we'll go slightly higher on ENER in the next day or two, but I am still very bearish on this stock.

In 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.50

I should've just held ...missed out on $200 not counting commissions...

It's also GO TIME for GOOG. I may buy some more...

Out 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $3.30 for +$650

I'm still holding 10 AAPL March $70 calls from $3.60. I'm still very bullish on AAPL. I'm just waiting for a dip to rebuy....errr...ALL IN...

Out 500 shares of AAPL at $70.85 for +$755

These were the shares that I received from my excercised options. I originally bought 5 AAPL Feb $65 Calls at $4.30, making my buy price $69.30.

Good thing I got back into GOOG. The whole market in general is making a run now.

In 10 GOOG March $370 Calls at $13.80

I'm back in. Looks like a double bottom on the 15-min chart. And I don't want to miss the run.

In 10 AAPL March $70 Calls at $2.65

I just doubled up on my AAPL calls. I have 20 at an average of $3.125 now. The second 10 contracts is just for a day trade.

Out GOOG March $370 Calls at $14.30 for -$600

Looks like GOOG and AAPL wants to go back and retest the lows. GOOG at $337.83 and AAPL around the $64.50 area. I'm going to wait to see where GOOG bottoms before loading up...

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Out 3000 NVAX at $4.90 for +$180

I had more of a profit on this stock, but I let it slip away...

In 10 ENER March $40 Puts at $1.20

I'm pretty bearish on this stock because it looks like a top has formed. Today, it gapped higher and quickly sold off. ENER is currently trading at $44.10, 2.25 points off of it's intra-day high. March $40 Puts look great to me because I think it'll go a hell of a lot lower than that in the days ahead...

Out 50 shares of GOOG at $366.80 for -$135

I'm out the GOOG that I bought on Friday. I've got my call options right now and those 50 shares were just tieing up my money.

F*ck UB...

Dammit...I guess my bad luck streak at UB hasn't gone away yet. I wonder if time is even a factor in my win percentage or not...anyways, I played short handed $2/$4 NL for no more than 45 minutes and I lost over $500! Damn, this software is sooo damn shady....

On this one hand, both the big blind and myself flopped two pair (aces and fives) and the other player flopped a flush with a 9-3 suited. The big blind bet, I raised and the guy with the flush went all-in. Both the big blind and myself had very little left after the raise, so we were pretty much forced to go all in.

Anyways, the guy who won the hand, had about $1200 in front of him. With the maximum buy-in of $400, he was up about $800. What I'm getting at is, his win percentage, according to my theory, was obviously a lot higher than mine, so I should know to stay away from playing in hands with him.

If it weren't for the shady poker software, I wouldn't have to do this. "Random" my ass...

Out 2000 shares of NVAX at $5.02 for +$400

I'm still holding the other 3000 shares. I'm trying to follow the trade management rules, where I sell 1/3 or 1/2 of my shares under the 15-min low ($4.99). I'm doing this because I always seem to sell too early or too late. So, instead of selling too early or too late, I'll let the intra-day chart dictate my stops.

In 5000 shares of NVAX $4.81

This is just for a day trade.

In 5 GOOG March $370 Calls at $15.50

Here's the start of my $100,000 4 month run...

Monday, February 20, 2006

Who wants to make $100,000 in 4 months?

Alright, I've been doing a lot of studying/research on this. I'm talking about google.com, aka GOOG. The chart of GOOG today looks soooo similar to the chart of EBAY back in 2004 that's it's eerie. Look at these charts and you'll see what I'm talking about:




Weekly chart of EBAY Jan 3, 2003 to July 30, 2004





Weekly chart of GOOG August 19, 2004 to February 17, 2006



Now, here's a chart of what happened to EBAY after July 30, 2004:




Weekly chart of EBAY all the way to February 4, 2005

If I'm right, then GOOG should follow the exact same path as EBAY from today onward. Obviously, there is no guarantee that GOOG will follow exact the same path as EBAY, but historical analysis says that stock patterns often repeat themselves.

If you look at the charts above, I've labeled the prices of the initial breakout and top of EBAY and GOOG. The stock pattern represented in the chart of EBAY is also known as a flag pattern. According to the definition of a basic flag pattern, the price target of the second breakout should be almost identical to that of the initial breakout. On the first chart of EBAY, the initial breakout started at $26.07 and the initial top formed at $47.06, which represented a $21.01 run. On the second chart of EBAY, the second run started at $36.41 and ended around $58.67, which represented a $22.26 run. Notice that boths runs were nearly identical.

Now look at the chart of GOOG. It looks like the initial breakout started at $294.56 and topped out around $470.50, which would represent a $174.95 run ($470.50-$294.56=$174.95). If we go back even further and take the initial breakout at $177.25, then the initial run would've been $470.50-$177.25 = $293.25. I'm not exactly sure if the second run has started yet, but the bottom should be around the $337-$340 area when it does start. So, if I'm right, then the next leg up for GOOG should take us all the way to around $511.95 ($340.00+$174.95) or better yet, $633.25 ($340.00+$293.25).

So, where will GOOG will take us in the next few weeks? Well, in my opinion, there will be one of two likely scenarios:

1) We go back and retest the low set at $337.83, then move higher from there. If this is the case, then the retest should happen within the next two weeks and the retest MUST BE on lower volume.

2) We move straight up from here. We gapped down big last week (closed at $362.61 on Friday, 2/10/2006, then opened at $346.64 on Monday 2/17/2006, due to the Barron's News) and then closed near the high of the week at $372.14, above the prior bar's low at $353.14. I know that this doesn't mean much to a lot of people, but to technical analysts like myself, this type of move represents a VERY BULLISH setup.

Only time will tell where GOOG is going, but my best guess is that we're going higher...a lot higher. And I'm going to stake some money on it. I'll probably buy some $400 options. At this time, the March $400 Calls cost $6.00. I don't think that we'll get to $500 by the third week of March (options expiration day), so those options are probably not a good bet, however, the June $400 Calls cost $24.00 right now. That's a pretty hefty premium considering that GOOG is only trading at $372, but that gives us 4 months to make the move that I'm expecting.

So, how exactly am I going to make $100,000 in 4 months? Well, assuming that we hit my initial conservative target of $511.95 by June 16, 2006, each contract of GOOG June $400 Calls that I buy at $24.00 will be worth a minimum of $111.95 ($511.95-$400 strike price). Each contract will cost me $2,400. When GOOG reaches $511.95, each contract will be worth a minimum of $11,195 netting me a minimum of $8,795 per contract that I buy. I say minimum because I have not included the premium of the option. The premium is dependant upon the time left before the option expires and that's unpredictable. In order to make $100,000, I would have to buy roughly 12 contracts. 12 contracts would cost me $28,800 at the current price.

Am I actually going to buy 12 contracts of GOOG? Stay tuned...all I know is that it's time to get even...I think it's time to bitch slap GOOG...

Sunday, February 19, 2006

AC Trip...

I got to the Borgata around 7pm on Thursday night. By the time I got checked in and unpacked, it was around 8pm, so I decided to order some room service ($18 for a hamburger!) and sign in to Titan Poker to play in the $250 freeroll that we were throwing. I was quite surprised to see that over 280 players signed up for the tournament. A lot of them didn't show up or quit during the middle of the tournament, but it was still nice to see such a big turnout.

After an hour and a half of play, we were down to roughly 50 players. I had a small stack and decided to push all-in with my pocket nines. A guy in late position called with pocket queens and I was dunzo. It was alright...I was itching to play for some *real* cash anyways!

Around 9:30pm or so, I went downstairs to the casino. I was proud of myself because I walked right past the blackjack tables, and then past the craps tables and went straight to the poker room. I took out $500 and sat down at the $2/$5 NL table. I played for roughly 4 hours before I almost passed out from boredom...

There were two key hands during that 4 hour session:

1) I had 88 in middle position. With everyone folding before me, I decided to raise it up to $15. Four players called...two who had position over me and the big blind. The flop came 78J. SWEET! I had flopped a set...but of course there was also a straight out there. The big blind checked to me and I decided to bet out small to see who was drawing and who had absolutely no hand. I bet out $25, hoping for a raise. The two players who had position over me called and the big blind folded. The turn brought an A. I lead out again, hoping for someone to pop me, so that I could push all-in. I bet out $50. The player to my immediate left hesitated for a second and was noticeably hesitant, but he called. I put him on J-T or J-9. The other player folded. The river brought a T. Not exactly the card that I wanted to see, but I thought that I was still okay. I decided to check to see if he had it or not because I didn't want to bet into a straight. He immediately bet $200. CRAP! Decision time.

I had never seen this guy bluff before, but in an earlier hand that I had played with him, he called me down on the river, when I check raised him to $150 and I had a full boat, fours full of Kings and he had middle pair. I had 3-4 and the board was 4-4-9-K-K. He didn't show his hand, but he probably had 9-Q. I knew that he wasn't that great of a player and I knew that he was capable of thinking that his J-T was good.

I started asking him a few questions and after a minute or two, I figured that he didn't have a straight, so I decided to call. Guess what he showed? Pocket Tens for a higher set of trips! F me! I lost close to $300 on that hand. Bad decision, but I was right in the fact that he didn't have the straight! Hah.

2) I had A-3 in middle positon and limped in for $5 along with 6 other players. The flop came A35. Everyone checked to the late position player who bet out $25. The small blind check raised him to $50. Damn...I either ran into a made straight or perhaps even trips! I only had about $135 or so left, so I pushed all-in. Everyone folded to the small blind check-raiser who immediately called! Shit! He showed 2-4 for the nut straight. Well, lucky me, a 3 came on the river, which gave me a full boat and I doubled up! Hah. You know how that old saying goes...it's better to be lucky than good!

So, after a 4 hour session at $2/$5 NL, I was able to recover from my $300 mistake and ended up walking away $93 richer. A win is a win right?

After poker, I went up to the craps table. I dropped $500 immediately. I'd say within 2 hours. Craps is such a sucker game...but I must admit, it's so damn fun! Around 4am, I hit the Blackjack tables to recoup my craps losses. Two hours later, I cashed out for $1200. I ended up going to bed +$800.

The next morning, I woke up around 9:45am to catch the market open. I made two trades. I bought 50 shares of GOOG at $369.50 and 10 AAPL March $70 calls at $3.60. I never sold my 5 AAPL Feb $65 calls, so they'll be excercised by the start of the trading day on Tuesday.

Around 11:30pm or so, I went downstairs to start my day at the table games. I played craps for about 4 hours. I ended up just about breaking even. I got a little hungry, so I went to grab some grub at the chinese noodles joint.

By 4pm, I was back at the craps tables again. I played till about 8:30pm or so. I decided to take a break from the monotany, so I went down to the poker room for a little bit. I had a dinner reservation at the steak joint (Old Homestead) at 10pm, so I was only going to be able to play for a little bit. I decided to play some $5/$10 NL because I wanted some action. I wanted to WIN some big money...

I ended up dropping $300 in the $5/$10 NL game, which really wasn't a lot because every 10 flops seen costed me $100, not to mention the occasional preflop raises. I was done with poker by 10pm. My first time playing in a live $5/$10 NL game. It was pretty much the same at $2/$5 NL, except, I noticed that the players with more money behind them were the players who were winning the majority of the hands. So, in a live action $5/$10 NL, the more aggressive you are, the better chances you have of winnings...IMO.

After dinner, I hit the craps and blackjack tables for another 5 hour session. By 4am, I was down a total of $500 for the entire trip. So, it was a -$1300 swing for me on Friday. Not good, but it wasn't that bad of a blow either.

When I woke up Saturday morning around noon, I felt so unsatisfied. Most likely due to the fact that I was down $500. I had to leave at around 1pm, so I only had about an hour or so to play. I went straight to the Blackjack tables because that was basically the only game that I was winning at.

By 1pm, I was a down another $700...a total of $1200. I switched tables...and took out the last $300 that I was willing to lose. I started betting crazy cause I needed to get my money back. After building my stack up to about $550, I put down a $250 bet because the count was ridiculously high...something like +20. I got 11 and the dealer showed a nine. I had to double. Guess what card came out? Yup, an ace...giving me twelve. F me. Luckily, the dealer flipped over a 4 or something and ended up busting! Woohoo...I was up to $1100 now....

The very next hand, I put down a $300 bet. I got two aces...a no-brainer split. The count was still ridiculously high, so I was very happy with my split. Unfortunately, I got a three on both hands, giving me 14 and the dealer was showing a Ten! Damn, dunzo...I thought. Believe it or not, the dealer flipped over a deuce and hit a ten and busted! "BLACK OUT!"...that's what the dealers say when they give out a black chip...I love it when they say that. So, in two hands I had won $1100. I had $1650 in front of me now...which put me at +$50 for the trip. I finished up the shoe and played one last shoe. I walked away with $1375, which put me at -$125 for the trip.

Oh well...not the result that I wanted, but -$125 was better than -$1200.

So, here were my trip totals:

$2/$5 NL: +$93
$5/$10 NL: -$295
Craps: -$800
Blackjack: +$875

Total: -$128

On the way home, I got a speeding ticket. 81mph in a 65mph zone. Bastards. Pre-S2000 and 13 years of driving and I only got 1 speeding ticket. Since I got the S2000, I've gotten two tickets in the past two months! Damn car is killing me. Maybe I should just slow down...no chance.

Alright, the stock market is closed for the holiday tomorrow. I've been doing a lot of chart reading. I've got a huge play. I'm confident that I'm gonna make a bundle on this play.

Boogster

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Done for the day...

Alright, I'm done for the day. The only thing that I'm holding is 5 AAPL Feb $65 Calls from $4.30. I really like AAPL's setup, so I don't mind if the option gets excercised on Saturday...

I'm heading up to AC till Saturday. I'm going to *try* to play some poker this time...it probably won't happen though because I have to pass the craps tables in order to get to the poker room...not to mention the bundles of BJ tables on the way to the craps table....

Out 500 ENER at $41.99 for -$150

First loss of the day. I just don't like the looks of this stock..it wants to go higher, but there's no commitment. I'm out of it until it can decide.

Out 1000 shares of GLD at $54.21 for +$710

This has been a crazy day for me...

I'm going to buy GLD back on the next dip.

Out 6 GOOG Feb $350 Calls at $6.60 for + $1800

F*ck yeah...time to get my money back on GOOG....pay da man his money...

Out 100 shares of GOOG at $353.55 for +$455

GOOG liftoff....pay da man his money...

In 500 shares of ENER at $42.30

I'm back for more. Only a half lot this time though. It bounced off of it's 20 period MA on the 15-min chart. Target is still $44.00.

Out 1000 shares of ENER at $42.79 for +$1700

Holy crap...this stock moved FAST! I'm not complaining!

In 1000 shares of GLD at $53.50

The chart looks exactly like AAPL's. We should be going higher...

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

End of day update...

I doubled down on my GOOG Feb $350 Calls. I bought 3 more contracts at $2.65 for an average of 6 contracts at $3.675.

I'm still holding:
1000 shares of ENER from $41.09
100 shares of GOOG from $349.00
5 AAPL Feb $65.00 Calls from $4.30

The day started out bad, but it recovered towards the end. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Oh yeah, I also entered NMGC at $7.20 in my longer term portfolio. 1000 shares.


On a different note, check out this prank:

http://www.break.com/index/kidscaredgame.html

This shit cracks me up! Sooo funny. Here's a followup:

http://www.break.com/index/righthandedprank.html


Break.com is such a money site.

Doubled down...

I doubled down on ENER at $40.71. I bought my first lot at $41.49, so that brings my average down to $41.09. 2000 shares. Believe that shit? That's $82k worth of stock! Damn, that shit makes me nervous...

Anyways, I sold half at $41.16 for +$70, so I'm back to 1000 shares at $41.09 now. A little less nerve racking...

afternoon update...

I'm down a bundle on ENER right now. I'm not going to worry until it breaks today's low.

DROOY is just sitting there waiting to be bought, which makes me a little hesitant because I hate it when a stock is too easy to get into. When it's got a sign on it that says "BUY ME", then there's probably something wrong with it. I think I'll wait.

Looks like the DOW found support at 11,000. Let's see if it holds till the end of the day.

Morning Update...

I sold my 7 AET Feb $100 Calls at $1.95 for +$175. I'm a little disappointed with this trade because I should've sold yesterday for +$1000.

I bought some AAPL Feb $67.50 Calls. 5 contracts to be exact. I think we are going higher over the next three days. Remember, options expiration is this Friday.

I bought 1000 shares of ENER at $41.49. This looks like a bullish gap and snap play. The stock gapped lower this morning, then it made a nice comeback to break yesterday's low. So, I'm buying here with a stop $.05 to $.10 below today's low, which was $39.81. $44 is a good target.

I'm also watching DROOY. It's a gold stock that's made a nice run over the past few months. This is the first pullback after making a new high. DROOY is sitting on the 20 period MA on the weekly chart, which should provide strong support. It also made a nice W bottom yesterday on lighter volume. I'm waiting for a 1 to 2 cent pullback before buying...perhaps $1.48.

I'm still holding my GOOG. I reviewed the charts yesterday and both GOOG and AAPL look good for the intermediate term. I honestly would not mind holding these stocks at this level. I'm hoping that my analysis is correct.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Bout time...

Blogger.com has been down the entire day!

While yesterday was a boring day in the markets, today was quite the opposite. I made a ridiculous number of trades today. Most of them winners, but two that weren't. And guess which stock it was? F*ck GOOG.

Here were my list of trades for today and their results:
  • Bought 5 PD Feb $140 Calls at $3.30, Sold at $5.30 for +$1000

  • Bought 200 shares of GOOG at $349.00, Sold 100 shares at $343.40 for -$560, Still holding 100

  • Bought 10 AAPL Feb $65 Calls at $2.45, Sold at $3.30 for +$850

  • Bought 3 GOOG Feb $350 Calls at $4.70, still holding...

  • Sold 10 AAPL Feb $72.50 Calls at $0.10 (from $0.90) for -$800


That's it. I'm still holding 7 AET Feb $100 Calls from $1.70, 100 shares of GOOG at $349.00, and 3 GOOG Feb $350 Calls from $4.70. From the results above, it doesn't look like I made a lot of money, but it was actually a pretty good day because my AET calls went up 200% today, which equates to a $1400 swing.

I hope holding GOOG overnight doesn't screw me tomorrow. I know that the stock is due for a short term bounce, it's just matter of time, but I really don't know if I have the stomach to wait for it to take off. I have a feeling that I'll get squeezed out of my long position...we'll see.

So, Poker Stars wasn't very good to me. I dropped $350 after a few hours of play. After playing at all of the different poker sites, I'm really starting to appreciate the Party Poker interface. I think it comes in a close second to UB's interface. Poker Stars, on the other hand, I like the fact that they offer instant payouts, but I remember one hand yesterday when I accidentally entered the wrong bet amount and it went through. I tried to put in $50, but for some reason, it put me all-in. I think what happened was that I accidentally type in "500" and it defaulted to my entire stack since I had less than $500.

Also, I dropped $200 at Golden Palace Casino playing blackjack with the live dealers. I was testing out the Blackjack Card Counting program. The program was working great, except I got a little crazy and started betting the max when the count was high. I was up $1100 at one point, then I went back down to $200 and back up to $700 and then, well...ZERO. It's all good. I was just playing around anyways.

I know that stock charts are boring, but us day traders live by these charts. I'm going to post a few charts and see if you can spot the similarities within these charts:







The charts above are of the weekly time frame. Let me get to the point. A few years ago, EBAY made a ridiculous run, similar to what GOOG and AAPL are doing right now. If you look at the chart of EBAY, and then of GOOG and AAPL, then you should be able see where the latter two stocks are headed in comparison to what happened to EBAY a few years back. Both GOOG and AAPL are currently where EBAY was in between 7/2 and 8/20, which means that there should be another leg up in both of these stocks. The next leg up for both of these stocks should mark a longer term high. The important thing to note is that both of these stocks SHOULD be headed higher in the upcoming months. Remember, volume is key...and right now, there's not enough vo lume to mark a top...

So, my point is...if you are a longer term investor (1 to 3 months)...it's time to load up on some GOOG and AAPL...

Monday, February 13, 2006

Cashing out...

Alright, I'm cashing out at Party for about $1600. Since stocks aren't moving today, I'm going to go install my car stereo...wake me up if GOOG goes to $333.

Up about $1600 at Party

I'm up about $1600 at Party Poker right now playing $2/$4 NL. I expect the suckouts to start coming soon. The first big bad beat that I get, I'm rolling. I'm cashing out and moving on to the next site. Most likely Poker Stars...

Boring day...

The market is boring today. Most stocks have been stuck in a narrow trading range. Perhaps it'll change towards the end of the day? Until then, I'm gonna go play in the snow or something...

Good thing I didn't hold GOOG...

GOOG down over 18 pts. due to an article in Baron's Magazine. If I held onto my 100 shares, I'd be down $1800 right now. THIS is why I didn't hold on to this puppy over the weekend...

Sunday, February 12, 2006

Forgiven..

Alright...looks like it was some punk kid who tried to get me to give him my Party Poker username, not Justin Zee.

http://zeejustin.com/journal.php?journal_id=73

I rather enjoyed reading his blog, so I'm glad to hear that it wasn't him who IM'd me a few months back. Anyways, it's all good now. I'm going to add him back to my list of poker bloggers.

So, I've been playing a little $2/$4 NL at Party Poker and Poker Stars. I initially lost about $700, but I made a nice comeback. Now, I'm up about $600.

Saturday, February 11, 2006

20 man tourney - $50 buy-in

I played in a $50 buy-in 20 man tourney last night. We all started with close to $200 in chips. On the first hand, I won about $25 after flopping top pair and getting two callers chasing for a flush. They didn't hit. On the second hand, I had 99 in late position. After two limpers, I raised to $6...blinds were at $.50/$1.00. Two players called. The flop came AQ9. My dream flop. Everyone checked to me. I bet out $10. I get one caller. The turn brings an A giving me a full boat (nines over aces). The early position player decided to bet out $10. That told me that he had Ax, with the "x" most likely being a low card, since he limped pre-flop. I said, "okay, I'm gonna let this sucker draw because he's not going anywhere anyways and I don't want to scare him away." The river brought a 4 and he immediately went all-in. WTF?!? Did I let this bitch draw out on me or did he seriously think that his Ax is good? Since I had barely played with this guy before, I didn't really have a good read on him yet. It was only the second hand of the tournament!!!

After thinking for a good while and staring at him trying to get a read, I made the worst mistake ever. What do you think I did?

If you said that I called, then you are correct. I put the majority of my money in the pot with the worst of it. He flipped over A4 for aces over fours. What an awful read!

Since I had him covered in chips, I was still in the game, but barely. After two or three rounds, the blinds got all the way up to $2/$4. I only had about $14 in chips left. I looked down and I got pocket kings. I put all of my money in the pot and got four callers. Luckily, my kings held up and I was able to quadruple up.

A few hands later, my AT held up against two other players and I was back to about $200 in chips. Blinds were at $15/$25 at that point. That gave me roughly 8 times the big blind. Not a great chipstack, but enough to play with.

After widdling my way down to $70 in chips and blinds were at $25/$50, I pushed all-in with A7 in early position. Three players called...ewe. Believe it or not, one player had AQ, the other had 77, and the last player had AJ. I was dunzo. So, I was able to make it to the final table, but I busted out in 10th place. My only disappointment about the tournament was making that horrible play with the pocket nines.

After the tournament ended, I played a little $.25/$.50 NL with a $20 buy-in. In 30-45 minutes of play, I was able to bring my stack all the way up to $105. By that time it was 1:45am, so I decided to call it quits. I cashed out with a nice $85 win. I made some nice reads, bluffed a few pots and flopped a bunch of monster hands, so it wasn't ALL skill that helped me win.


Over the past few weeks, I've been thinking about the things that makes one become successful at gambling. One thing that I've noticed about all successful gamblers is their complete and total disregard for money. When gambling, if you let the amount of money involved influence your decisions, then there's no way that you'll ever be successful. You have to completely disregard money in order to win at gambling. Once you don't care about the money involved, then everything else will come naturally because it'll allow you to play your game to it's fullest. Of course Skill is an important factor as well, but that's a given. I'm talking about all of the things outside of skill.

Think about it, you can be the best skilled poker player in the world, but if you sat down at a high stakes table with your life savings of $1 million dollars, it's a lock that you'd lose against mediocre players with a bigger bankroll. It's because they don't give a shit about the money involved. And in order to be a winning gambler, you can't be scared of the money either.

This is one change that I've noticed about myself over the past few months. I've been worrying less about the money invovled and concentrating more on my play, which I believe has made me a much better player. This applies to both my poker playing and my day trading. I'd say even in my blackjack playing. I'm no longer scared to put in a $300 bet when the count is high. You gotta do what you gotta do right?

Till next time.

Friday, February 10, 2006

Out 100 GOOG at $362.30 for +$294.00

GOOG looks good, but I'd rather not worry about how it's going to open on Monday. I can always buy back higher, if need be.

Out 100 GOOG at $362.85 for +$349.00

Got some of my money back. I'm holding the other half to see where it goes...

Long 200 GOOG at $359.36

Time to get even...

Out 100 GOOG at $358.99 for -$444

GOOG does it to me again. Pisses me off. I don't know why I even shorted in the first place. There was support at the $354 area. One of these days....

Short 100 shares of GOOG at $354.55

GLD

GLD falling off of a cliff like expected. Unfortunately, I missed the entire first half hour of trading, so I couldn't get in. I had to go to the docs to get my knee checked up. They're saying that it's my ACL. The doc said that it's torn...I'm hoping it's not. I'm keeping my fingers crossed until I get my MRI.

Anyways...the market looks sick today. There should be plenty of money to be made today...

NMGC

Here's a stock that looks compelling for the intermediate term (1 to 2 months):



The above chart is a weekly chart of NMGC. There was a volume explosion in early December. Since then, NMGC has retraced back close to it's 20 period MA. The ideal entry would be $6.60. I already bought a half lot (500 shares) at $7.25. I'm looking to hold this stock for at least a few weeks to a few months. If things pan out right, this stock should go all the way back up to $13.70 at a minimum. That's close to a 100% gain. I'll come back to this post when it gets there and say "I told you so".

Thursday, February 09, 2006

Stocks update...

I was able to make a few trades during my AC trip. I covered my SPY short from $127.13 at $125.93 for +$360. I bought AAPL Feb $70 calls at $1.8 and sold at $1.95 for change. The 10 PD Feb $150 Puts (not $155) that I bought at $1.80 before I left, I was able to sell them for about a $500 gain. Unfortunately, that bitch ran all the way up to $8.80, so I left about $6,000 on the table!!!! F me!

I also bought 10 AAPL Feb $72.50 Calls at $.90, which I'm still holding. I'm down about $600 on those right now!

Also, I bought 7 AET Feb $100 calls at $1.70 just today. Today's action looks very bullish. I'm hoping that it's not a bull trap. We'll see.

One stock that looks very compelling to me is GLD. There was a bearish professional gap three days ago and for the past two days, it's retraced all the way back to the start of the gap. This stock looks like a huge short opportunity. I'm most likely going to short it big in the next day or two...

Trip to AC report...

Alright...where do I begin?

Well, let's see. I busted out of the $500 + $60 tourney around 280th - 290th place out of 439. It was just one of those days. I had absolute nothing to work with. About 3.5 hours of play and the highest pocket pair that I got were sixes. I got AQ suited once (final hand), and AK offsuit once. The only hands that I won were semi-bluffs or just cold hard bluffs. I'm not disappointed with my play because I didn't play bad. Next time...NEXT TIME! The drive is still in me to win one of these things...

The sad thing about this whole trip is that I barely played any poker at all, aside from the tournament. I played $1/$2 NL on the first night for only a few hours, but that's it. I dropped $110 playing $1/$2 NL. Again, I played well.

Here's the reason why I lost. I had 92 in middle position and I limped in for $2. The player to my immediate left raises to $13. Two other players in between us call, so I decided to see the flop as well. (As a side note, I like it when the player to my immediate left raises because the initial preflop raiser usually dictates the betting action post-flop, so I get to see all of the action before I make a decision.) So, the flop came Q92, giving me bottom two pairs. The early position player bets out $50 into a $48 pot and I raise to $150. Everybody folds to the initial raiser who just calls my bet. The turn brings a Q. He immediately puts me all-in. I had about $75 left. I put him on a queen, so if my read was correct, then I'd be drawing dead on the river. I folded. He didn't show, but I'm about 95% certain that he had a Queen because he was an absolutely horrible player, who would definately call my $100 raise on the flop drawing to 6 outs. Oh well...

So, what did I play for the majority of my trip? Blackjack. I played a ridiculous amount of hours. Mainly at the $25 and $50 tables. If it weren't for blackjack, I definately would've ended the trip as a loser. I won around $1800 playing blackjack. I did the whole card counting thing and it definately worked. I used the Easy Red 7 Count by Arnold Snyder. I must've read that entire page about 5 times already. If you're a blackjack player, card counting is a must. Make sure you understand the Basic Strategy as well.

I played some Craps as well. Probably around 10 hours or so total. In my first session, I lost $600 right off the bat. And then the other two sessions, I lost $100 and won $75. Craps is hands down the most fun game at the casino. I just wish that I could win more often at the game.

I blew $100 at the routlette table waiting for my buddies to finish up. I don't even know why I bother playing. That game is so boring...

So, here are my totals for the trip:

Starting Bankroll: $2700

Harrah's Poker Tourney: -$560
$1/$2 NL Hold'em: -$110
Roulette: -$100
Craps: -$635
Blackjack: +$1800

Ending Bankroll: $3095
Win/Loss: +$395

Who said that gambler's never win?

I'll post a stock update in a little bit here...

Monday, February 06, 2006

In 10 PD Feb $155 Puts at $1.80

Alright...I feel so unsatisfied when I don't make any trades (sign of a gambling problem)...so I bought some PD puts. I like the big red bar two trading days ago. Alright, I'm out...

Worm: You know what always cheers me up?
Mike McDermott: No, what's that?
Worm: Rolled up aces over kings. Check-raising stupid tourists and taking huge pots off of them. Playing all-night high-limit Hold'em at the Taj, "where the sand turns to gold." Stacks and towers of checks I can't even see over.
Mike McDermott: Fuck it, let's go.
Worm: Don't tease me.
Mike McDermott: Let's play some cards.

Boo yah...

Had a little scare at the end there, but I'm relieved to see Pitt take it. Phew! Now, I'm $1k richer. Let's see if I can parlay that $1k up to $10k in AC. I'm leaving in a few here. I probably won't be doing too much trading until Thursday, as I'll be playing $2/$5 NL most of the time...

Boogster

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Superbowl

Alright...so, I'm taking Pitt -4 (-105) to cover. I put $1050 on em. I got my fingers crossed. I've never bet this much on a single game before.

I busted out of the Absolute Poker Affiliate tourney in 39th place out of 76. Oh well, there's always next month...

Saturday, February 04, 2006

UB does it again...

After making a nice run over the past few weeks at UB, the bad streak found it's way in, as expected. I was up over $1150 in the past few sessions playing $2/$4 NL. Then, last night, I hit an awful cold streak. My pocket eights, got cracked by pocket fives when we both flopped a set and he turned a quad. Naturally, we were both all-in on the river. And then, I can't tell you how many hand where I was an overwhelming favorite to win the hand and my opponent caught one of his outs on the river.

By the end of the session, I had dropped $750 back. Now, I'm only up around $400. Friggin sucks. It's pretty sick how I know it's coming, yet I still manage to lose a chunk of my bankroll back. It's all good, I have to look at it on the bright side...I'm still up $400.

I'm switching to another site until UB decides to up my win percentage again. Perhaps inactivity will increase my win percentage. I'll probably go over to Party.

What else...well, I've been playing some online blackjack at Golden Palace. I deposited $200. I brought my bankroll up to around $1050 and then I collapsed. I'm right back to even again. I went a little crazy today...I started betting $300 a hand. That's why I'm at breakeven now.

Anyways, there's a reason why I've been playing Blackjack. I'm not quite ready to reveal what I've been working on yet, but I will soon.

I played in two small tournaments with friends last night. $5 buy-in. There were 10 of us. I think it was good that I played in this game because I feel as though it will help me prepare for the big tournament on Tuesday when I play in the $500 + $60 at Harrah's. The tournament mindset is totally different than the cash game mindset. I've mainly been playing in cash games lately, so last night allowed me to refresh myself.

In the first tournament, I didn't even cash. I placed in 5th or 6th place. In the second tournament, I placed in 1st, netting $30. So, last night, I ended up walking away with a $20 profit. Peanuts, but I wasn't there for the money.

I'm playing in the Absolute Poker affiliate tournament tomorrow at noon. I'm still looking to get an entry into the 2006 WSOP. I seriously need to win this tourney...

So, who's the hot pick for tomorrow? Come back tomorrow and find out...I already know who I'm taking and I'll most likely be taking them BIG...

Boogster

Friday, February 03, 2006

Out 2 GOOG $370 puts at $7.60 for -$240

Dammit. Bad trade. Monday will be a new day.

In 2 GOOG Feb $370 Puts at $8.8

Yeah...GOOG is breaking down again. I just realized that I left about $2,000 on the table because my $400 puts are trading at $26 right now. I sold at $15.60!!

Anyways, I bought some puts again, because it looks like GOOG is about to breakdown. Here's my guess as to what's going to happen. It will close at it's absolute low today, around $370 or so. Then, on Monday, we'll gap up and move higher from there. So, I'm going to short here, then buy some calls at the close...

Taking a long lunch...

I'm still short 300 shares of SPY from $127.13. I probably won't do too much trading today as I'm taking a long lunch...

Out 2 GOOG Feb $400 Puts at $15.60 for +$920

F*ck GOOG. Bitch deserves to die. Finally made some money back.

Pay da man his money

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Frustrating day!

Damn...what a frustrating day. After I made that first profitable trade on PD, I pretty much went downhill from there. My RMBS went sideways to lower for the rest of the day. Not only that, but I bought another 500 shares at $27.52. I lost about $500 total on that RMBS trade. I wasn't going to hold overnight, so I dumped it right before the close.

Another bonehead trade that I made was shorting 400 shares of PD at $160.15, then covering about 5 minutes later at $160.40 for -$100.

The only good trade that I made was buying 2 GOOG Feb $400 puts at $11.00. There was a selloff on GOOG late in the day. I'm currently up about $600 on those puts right now, but I haven't sold yet, so they're not officially a profit yet. Anything can happen, especially since Amazon is reporting earnings after the close today.

I'm also short SPY, which is the tracking stock for the S&P. The chart on SPY looked very bearish, so I jumped in with 300 shares at $127.13. It closed at $127.13 today.

Amazon numbers coming in right now....judging by the price of the stock in after hours trade, it looks like the numbers aren't too good. AMZN is down about $3 right now.

...Amazon is tanking now....so is GOOG, perhaps I'll make my money back from GOOG????

In 500 shares of RMBS at $27.65

RMBS is about to go. There was a bullish pop earlier this morning, then there was a downsloping wedge, forming a bullish flag pattern. The target is $28.93.

Out PD at $161.20 for -$280

dammit.

In 200 shares of PD at $162.59

Word to the wise...never catch a falling knife. The trend is down, I was just looking for a bounce. I am going to short as soon as I get my money back. PD is trading at $161.59 x $161.71 right now.

Out 200 shares of PD at $166.75 for +$424.02

Damn fine trade. I've made loot trading PD.

In 200 shares of PD at $164.52

Poker Tells...

I played some more UB last night. I played for maybe an hour/hour and a half total. I ended up winning around $230. I played well last night. I called someone all-in with second pair and I laid down a few monsters because I wasn't sure if I had the best hand or not. I think that's how you're supposed to play good poker: follow your reads and wait for a better spot when you're not sure.

You know, a lot of people don't know this, but one of the biggest poker tells is hesitation. How long does it take for your opponent to bet? Usually, players who take a little while, then bet are not bluffing, whereas players who wait and then check, means that they have an awful hand.

I can't tell you how many times I've used this tell to win a pot.

Okay...enough about poker for now. The market is open.

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Fack GOOG...

I'm out at $398.40 for just about breakeven after commissions. Stupid friggin stock. I swear, one of these days, I'm gonna beat the shit out of it.

I'm holding nothing right now. I think I'm gonna go get some lunch now...and figure out how I'm going to get my money back from GOOG.

Reversed GOOG short to a long

I don't know why I even bother trading GOOG. I've lost so much damn money on this stock. Anyways, I reversed my short to a long at $398.25. -$1400 on my short. F GOOG. Time to get my money back...

Out 5 PD Feb $160 Puts at $5.54 for -$230

Dammit...I had a $1500 gain on this sucker at one point. This is what happens when I don't stick to my original plan.

Out AET Feb $90 Calls at $8.00 for +$1725

I just short another 50 shares of GOOG at $392.90. I am short 100 shares at an average of $384.57 right now.

I'm still holding onto my PD puts.

That's all I got for now.

I should've shut my yap...

After yapping about the idiots on UB, I did the what the idiots did and dropped $300 back. Yeah, I bluffed. And I got caught. I had top pair with weak kicker and the dude busted me with trips. God, I'm an idiot. I lost $400-$450 on that hand. Fortunately I was up a little at that point, so it eased the blow a little bit. I'm still up $630 from my previous two sessions, so I guess I'll use that money for the tournament next week. That means, I should probably stay away from UB until after the tournament.

Another idiot move was shorting GOOG before the close yesterday. That bitch is trading at $390 now and I'm left holding onto shorted stock at $376. I'll be looking for an exit soon.

Let's see, I sold half of my AET calls this morning at $7.70 for +$1575. I'm going to hold the second half to see if it retests the 52 week high at $99.36.

I'm also looking to get out of my PD puts.