party poker

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

How to Handle Aggressive Opponents in No Limit Hold'em

If you are relatively new to no limit holdem, (make sure you know the Texas Holdem rules properly) one concern you may have is what to do against a very aggressive player. One of the exciting aspects of no limit Texas holdem is that any player can put you at risk for all their chips at any given time, which is an extreme amount of pressure. Many players, especially new ones, prefer not to put all their chips at risk, but there are certainly many players who move chips in with seemingly reckless abandon. What can you do against such an opponent?

First, it is possible to determine how aggressive a table is before you ever sit down. If one or two players at a table have very large stacks, it is likely that it is an aggressive table. The big stacks are not necessarily the aggressive ones, although they could be. It is possible that one or more players have rebought several times. Tables with smaller overall stacks are likely to be less aggressive, although the game may have just started or the composition of the table may have changed. You can also determine how aggressive a table is by observing it for several hands before you sit down.

If you are at a table with an aggressive player, try to make sure that player is on your right. If this is the case, they will act before you almost every hand. Your having position on them, and knowing what they are doing before you act, will counteract some of the effects of their aggression. If you combine that with only playing premium hands, you will be in a good position to combat this player. When you have a strong hand, it is often correct to slow play against a player like this, checking and calling their bets. While it is possible this may allow them to draw out on you, many more times they will simply bluff off all or most of their chips to you. If you have a drawing hand, you should bet “on the come” less often, because reopening the betting may invite them to move you all in and force you to fold. On the other hand, if you appear weak, they may try to represent the hand that you in fact have if your card comes.

Be sure to have a bankroll that supports the game you are in. You will probably be in an all-in situation some time over the course of your no limit holdem session. Make sure you have enough money that you can comfortably rebuy if you lose. Aggressive players will pick up on the fact that you are overly protective of your stack if you cannot afford to lose it and take advantage of this very quickly. For more articles andonline poker reviews, check out PokerShopping.com

Thursday, December 07, 2006

I've moved!!

I decided to switch over to the wordpress software because I was sick and tired of being at the mercy of blogger.com. Here's the new link to my blog:

http://www.boogster.com/blog/

For those of you who are linked to me, please update your links.

Thanks!

Saturday, September 09, 2006

College Picks

A little late, but I'll post all of the ones that I've taken so far:

Statfox picks:
Tulsa vs BYU under 53, $110 to win $100 @ Betcris.com
Missouri -6.5 1st half, $105 to win $100 @ Betcris.com
South Carolina +3 over Georgia, $110 to win $100 @ Mansion.com

My picks:
Virginia Tech -4 2nd half, $115 to win $100 & Betcris.com

I'll probably put a bet on tonight's big game as well. I'll post it when I make the bet.

NFL Picks

Here's who I'm taking for the 1pm games:

Philadelphia -4.5 over Houston, $330 to win $300 @ Mansion.com
Denver -3.5 over St. Louis, $220 to win $200 @ Betcris.com
Seattle vs. Detroit Under 45, $110 to win $100 @ Sports Interaction

I went 2-2 yesterday for -$20. Now you see why the bookies always win?

Friday, September 08, 2006

NFL Super Locks - 5 STAR PLAYS

Here are my picks for Sunday:

Philadelphia -4.5 over Houston (Bet the farm)
Denver -3.5 over St. Louis (2 units)
Seattle vs. Detroit Under 45 (1 unit)

That's all I have folks.

Done for the week...+$817.35

Done for the day...+$0

Boring day today. I didn't make one single trade. I guess I wanted to end the week on a good note. It also had to do with the fact that there was absolutely no volume in today's market. I'm watching and waiting. I actually did some work on NFL Challenge today as well. I've a stats page up now that tells me how many people are betting on each game. Hopefully, I'll be able to use this information to help me with my wagers.

Anyways, I'm done with trading of the week. Have a good weekend.

NFL Opener- Oddsmakers in vulnerable position

Article

I was wrong about the stats on the first game of the returning superbowl champs. Here were the real stats:

"In the last five years the Super Bowls winners are 12-3 SU and 10-4-1 ATS the first three games of the season. With the adjusted Total, Miami falls into a trend that shows them at 1-8 ATS in all games where the total is 35 or less over the last 3 seasons."

BTW...if any of you are into sportsbetting, make sure you check out Statfox.com. They offer stats and trends for every game known to man. I actually paid for a one year subscription to their stats service. I think it cost me like $275. Yeah, not cheap, but I did it last year just as a trial. I actually don't find myself using it that much, so I won't do their subscription again.

Also, make sure you check out their Statfox Super Situations picks on college football.

link

Those picks have done a lot better than I have. I can't pick games to save my life. I just hope to break even in sportsbetting every year...hah.

Friday Morning Update...

I've got nothing this morning. I'm still holding onto my RIMM short, YM short, and DIA puts. I'll most likely get rid of my DIA september puts soon. I should've exited the $112 puts a while ago. I gotta stop playing options until I read a book on how to trade them. I still don't really understand which options have the best value yet. I know how much risk I'm willing to take and I know my target price, but I don't really know how to analyze which options contain the best value for my money. Anyways, I definately need to start reading up on my options trading.

BTW...I did that Mansion.com free bet last night. I decided to hedge my bet over at betcris.com. I put down $550 to win $500 on Miami +1.5 over at betcris and put $1100 to win $1000 on Pitt pickem over at Mansion.com, so I ended up winning $450. I was going to let it ride on Pitt, but I really wasn't sure if they were going to cover or not, so I took the safe route.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Done for the day...+$2,222.45

Got my money back from Tuesday. It sure does feel good to have all of this effort that I put into reading and analyzing charts pay off. If you guys only knew how much time I spend studying and reading and obsessing about the stock market, then you would understand the desire that I have to win at this game. I probably spend more time learning about the stock market than most people do sleeping on a daily basis. It's sick. I may lack "discipline" and "patience" at times and I am most definately "reckless", but when it comes to "hard work", it kills me when I read someone comment about my lack of "hard work". Kills me because you have no idea.

It's kinda funny how people are so eager to kick me when I'm down, but yet so reluctant to offer praise when I'm up. Yeah, I admit, I probably bring a lot of this onto myself because I am sometimes "cocky" and "arrogant" in my blogs, but it's the crazy competitor in me that writes all of that stuff. 15 comments on Tuesday when I lost $1,400...all bashing the crap out of me, where are all of you mofos now, huh? I'm sorry, that was the crazy competitor in me writing again. Seriously though, if I were reading my own blog, I wouldn't blame myself for wanting me to lose either...I'm sooooo cocky sometimes...hah. At least I admit it, right? How fun would reading this blog be if I didn't show my true emotions?

Anyways, good day today. I like how we closed near the lows of the day with VOLUME....the most important thing. I want to see what Tim Knight has to say about today's action. He seems like a man who knows his technical analysis. So, what's in store for us tomorrow? Well, I want to see one more big gap down below today's lows and hopefully another big red bar. Things are definately looking good for us bears today though....

Have a good evening.

DIE YM, DIE BEATCH!!!

Hah...F the YM. I have way too much fun writing this damn blog, but only on days in which I'm making money.

August Trading Results...

Despite the awful loss in my daytrading account last month, I still eeked out a small gain across all portfolios for the month of August. I seriously thought that I was in the red for last month because it sure felt like I was in the red. I guess that HANS swing trade saved me big time.

Daytrading: -$3,815.55
Swing #1: +$4,116.89
Swing #2: -$47.41

Total: +$253.93

You can see my results listed in my Monthly Totals spreadsheet. I don't have all of my trades for my IB account posted yet because they haven't updated their stats yet. It usually takes about 5 to 6 days, but it looks like they've got some issues this month.

Looking at my stats, perhaps I should stick to swing trading as that seems to be what I'm best at. I still don't have enough stats to make an accurate judgement of my results though. I think that by January of next year, I should be able to figure out what works best for me. That doesn't mean that I'll stop daytrading though because I can't imagine doing anything else. Not only that, but I enjoy daytrading a lot.

Man, I really don't know how Charles Kirk of the Kirk Report consistently makes over $100k a year from doing this shit. I guess he does play with a lot more money than me, but still...I don't think I'd have a $100k profit even if I did have more money. Not right now, at least. That's the thing about trading...as long as there's someone better than me, I don't think that I'll ever stop doing it, unless I get to the point where I don't think I'll ever become any better. It's like boogster.com, having competitors like PSO & VegasPokerPro makes doing my job so much more exciting because right now, these guys are bigger than us and it's like I'm competing with them day in and day out to become the best. I love battling it out.

Okay...enough ranting. Another hour and a half of trading. I haven't done jack today, mainly because I'm still holding onto my short positions and I don't feel as though I should be entering more. Not now at least. It'd be nice to see the DOW close at it's low today....

Trading Station...

Since everybody is posting pictures of their trading stations, I figured that I'd post a picture of my own. It's fun seeing what kind of setup other traders have. Look how ghetto mine is compared to Glenn's and Hubert's. Theirs look like war rooms, mine looks like something you'd find at walmart. Hah.

My Trading Station






I hope these guys don't mind me posting pictures of their trading stations. BTW...can someone tell me why you would need 6 monitors for trading?? WTF? I wouldn't even know which one to look at. One of these days, I'm going to get a 10 monitor trading system just because...

DIA

Notice the heavy volume on DIA, which means the big guys are finally starting to sell. We're at 2.2million shares right now. Yesterday, we only traded 4.3 million shares the entire day! We're only an hour and 20 minutes into the trading day! It's a lock that my man Tim Knight is loving today's action.

RIMM

Okay, let's revisit RIMM, since I need to figure out when to exit my short position. I put fibonacci lines on the chart below to give me some reference points. If you don't know what fibonacci lines are, then I suggest that you learn about them and quick because they are essential for traders.



RIMM has run so hard and so fast to the upside, that it's left very little support below. Usually, stocks that fly up like this usually drop just as fast. Eventually, I think that RIMM will retrace 100% of its move up. From a swing trading perspective, I think that a good exit target point would probably be around its 50% retracement level, which would put my target just below $74. Notice how there's a little bit of support there as well. So, that's what I'll be looking for.

Covered 5 YM at 11366 for +$2225

Alright, I'm taking half of my profits off of the table here. I feel a lot more comfortable holding only 5 contracts even though I have absolutely no reason for selling here. I mean, my technical analysis hasn't changed a bit. I'm still expecting us to take out the multi-month lows in one fast quick move down. My only reason for selling here is for my own comfort. That's a legitimate reason right? You know, the pros say that not letting profits run is just as bad as not taking a stop loss on a losing position....oh well, all I know is that I'm $2.225k richer right now and it feels good.

Thursday Morning Update...

Alright, so I'm currently up about $4k on my YM trade. Now, how in the world do I manage this trade so that I don't miss out on the potential further downside and at the same time, make sure that I don't lose back a chunk of my profits? I've been asking myself that question for the past 24 hours. Obviously, I think that we're going much lower, but what if we go up to 11400 before going lower? I'd be kicking myself for not locking in more than $2k in profits. I could always reshort higher, right? I was considering just walking away from my computer for the entire day, but there's no chance that I could do that. If I were sitting at my computer yesterday, it's a lock that I would've probably have sold half of my short position after we broke the morning highs. Luckily I was in my car.

You know, I think the best idea is to lock in at least half of the profits and then let the other half run and put a stop loss on it. I'm so torn right now. It's just seems so easy for me to sell here and take profits. Too easy, which means that it's probably the wrong decision. If this trade was in my swing portfolio where I wasn't watching every tick, then there's no way that I would be selling right here. Oh man... I guess, at least I'm not on the other side trying to figure out when to take a loss on a losing position. This is just as agonizing though. Maybe not "just as agonizing", but definately still very painful....in a good way.

Alright...let's do some quick analysis on the market. The TICK has traded between 400 and -500 this morning, which puts us in neutral territory. The TRIN is trending slightly higher and is above 1, which is slightly bearish. And the VIX is trending higher, which is slightly bearish.

As far as price action goes...we had another big gap down this morning. If you look at the daily chart of QQQQ, you'll notice that we closed at the high of the day on Tuesday and then gapped down big yestday, leaving all of those longs who bought the breakout sitting on big losing positions. This was exactly what I was expecting to happen. I've been talking about this shit for the past 2-3 weeks. Only time will tell whether we tank big from here or not. I'm still expecting a lot of downside action...

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Done for the day...$0

Needless to say, I didn't trade at all today. I was on the road for most of the day. I left AC at 11:00am and got home around 3:30pm. I'm still holding my 10 YM contracts right now. I'm certain that market is headed lower, but what I'm not certain about is whether we're going to make new highs one last time before we go down or not. The next two days will tell us more. If we go higher one last time, then we could do 100 to 150 ticks easily. I may end up selling my YM contracts in after hours today and just wait to see what develops tomorrow morning. At worst, I will lose 10-20 ticks, right?

Back from AC...

Just got back from AC. You guys probably thought that I blew up again. I decided to stay in AC last night because I wasn't going to be able to make it back in time for my fantasy football draft if I tried to leave last night. So, I just did it over skype and IM. It worked out just fine. Definately not as fun sitting in the war room with the other players though.

Anyways, it's nice to see that the YM has dropped to the lows of the day. Right now, I'm not really sure what I want to do. Volume is very weak on today's down move, but I love the fact that we're closing at the lows of the day. Love it. Tomorrow will be the day that tells us where we're going in the near term. I've seen all too many times where we have a false trend change like yesterday and today only to gap up the following day and make a new run to higher highs. I don't think that the latter will happen, but it's definately a possibility, which I really can't ignore. I've got a nice 55 tick gain on my 10 contracts of the YM right now. I hate not taking partial profits, but I hate missed money even more. My gut is telling me that we're going lower, but the little discipline that I have in me is telling me to take half off of the table. I've got 19 minutes to decide.

And look at RIMM too. -2.4% today. Schweet....

Wednesday Morning Update...

Well...the YM gapped down almost 50 points this morning! I expected this to happen yesterday, but I'll take it today as well. Looking at the market internals, the TICK is in bearish territory trading between 200 and -792 and the TRIN is trending higher which is also bearish. I'd like to see carnage today. Who knows if it'll happen or not, but we need a carnage day in order to go lower. Today's gap down was a good start though because it didn't allow the longs to get out at the close yesterday and now they're "stuck" up top.

I'm still holding onto my 10 contracts of the YM from 11455. I'm also short 300 shares of RIMM at $81.71 and I''ve got 10 DIA Oct $114 Puts at $1.50, 10 DIA Sep $112 Puts at $1.95 and 10 DIA Sep 113 Puts at $0.45. Let's see what happens...

BTW...whoever sent that link to the Zurich Axioms ... thanks. Good stuff.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Done for the day...-$1,405.10

Ewe. That's all I gotta say. I dropped about 28 ticks on the YM, which is not awful, but my trade size made it look awful. Obviously I'd much rather have a profit than a loss, but I was prepared to take a loss if I had to. I knew what I was getting into.

I know that my trading style is very aggressive and I've tried to grind it out, $250 here, $250 there, but I thought about it and that's not what I'm here for. Yeah, I may go broke trying to become "filthy rich" from the stock market, but one thing that I know for certain is this...if I don't try, then there's absolutely no chance that it'll ever happen.

I don't know...some of you may say that I'm "reckless" and "undisciplined" which is so very true. I'm not disagreeing with you guys, but I feel as though I have to be a little "reckless" and "undiscipined" to get to where I want to go.

I'm sure a lot of you know who George Soros is. He's one of the wealthiest people in the world. Do you know what made him famous? Check this out from Wikipedia:


On Black Wednesday (September 16, 1992), Soros became immediately famous when he sold short more than $10bn worth of pounds, profiting from the Bank of England's reluctance to either raise its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency. Finally, the Bank of England was forced to withdraw the currency out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and to devalue the pound sterling, and Soros earned an estimated US$ 1.1 billion in the process. He was dubbed "the man who broke the Bank of England."

The Times October 26, 1992, Monday quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that. In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused because that was about how much we wanted to sell."

In 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad accused Soros of using the wealth under his control to punish ASEAN for welcoming Myanmar as a member. Later, he called Soros a moron. [3] Thai extremists have called Soros "an economic war criminal" who "sucks the blood from the people".


You know what his net worth is now? 11 billion dollars. I'm not saying that I'm George Soros, but do you think that shorting $10bln worth of pounds was "reckless" and "undisciplined"? What I'm getting at is, successful people don't get to where they want to go by not taking a risk.

- Bill Gates quit out of Harvard to start his own company.
- Warren Buffet knocked on the door of Geico's headquarters until a janitor allowed him in just so that he could talk to the Vice President about the company.
- Mark Cuban got fired from his job because he chose to close a software deal instead of opening the store that he was working at, on time.

Financially speaking, losing all of my money in my daytrading account is not going to significantly impact my life in one way or another. It would suck to lose all of that money and it would probably force me to quit daytrading, but my life will not be over because of it. To be honest, I'd be more disappointed by the way that I traded versus the money that I lost. My goal is to become one of the best at what I do and make a lot of money while I'm doing it. If that means taking a little more risk than I should be, then I'm gonna do it.

Only time will tell what happens to me and my daytrading account. If I make a million or two from trading, then I'll look back at these days and laugh. If I don't, then I'll still look back and laugh...

Bill Gates

Covered 10 YM at 11483 for -$1,400

I'm gonna hold the other 10 contracts for tomorrow. I might sell another 5 in after hours...we'll see. What a frustrating day. I still think that the risk/reward to the downside is much better right here though. If we go up 100 points from here, then I'm prepared to take a $5k loss. I'm hoping for more than 200-300 points to the downside though. I just gotta tell myself not to worry about the intra-day action. I should just consider this a swing trade with a hundred point stop.

Hopefully, us shorts won't get squeezed out before heading lower. I thought that Friday was the squeeze day, but apparently it wasn't. A big gap down tomorrow would be the perfect setup.

Short 10 YM at 11457

F the YM.

Sick

I gotta keep telling myself not to be scared. The daily chart of DIA is screaming overbought. The McClellan Oscillator is at 156 and change. CCI is at 129. RSI is nearing the 70 mark. We almost always get a pullback from these levels. I'd have to say about 95% of the time. I have a feeling that we're not going to sell off until the last hour of the day though until all of the shorts have given up. Sometimes trading makes me so sick to my stomach!

Short 5 YM at 11456

We're going down dammit.

Short 5 YM at 11453

Definately jumping the gun here. I should wait for the breakdown first.

Tuesday Morning Update...

I'm still up in AC right now. However I'm heading back home for my live fantasy football draft tonight. I got crushed playing $5/$10 NL. I paid three players off which costed me almost $1000 each time. And then I got sucked out of three huge pots worth $1200, $800, $1400. The suckouts I'm not too worried about, but paying players off when I'm beat is no excuse. I GOTTA learn to lay down those big hands when I'm beat. Anyways here are my totals:

-$3400 playing $5/$10 NL
+$260 playing $2/$5 NL
-$400 playing Blackjack

Yeah...I should've just stayed home this weekend...hah. I'm so bitter that I lost playing poker. It's like two steps forward and one step back. Every time I think that I'm starting to become a good poker player and then I make a stupid call and donk off all of my chips to someone. This crap makes me second guess how good I really am. I'm trying to come back next week sometime...hopefully, I'll have better results the next time.

As far as the market goes today. I love this gap down this morning. Even this very small one is good. And right now, the market has been in a sideways consolidation for about 30 minutes. All we need is a downside breakout and we're golden. The market internals aren't telling us crap right now...

Die YM, DIE BEATCH.

Friday, September 01, 2006

Done for the week...-$2,256.98

Not a good week. Next time we're in the slow season, I'm taking the week off. Live and learn.

Done for the day...-$217.60

Yeah...I lost exactly 7 ticks on the YM today on 5 contracts. Not sure why I was trading anyways, but I guess I had an itchy trigger finger. It's nice to see that the YM is closing very close to it's HOD. This sets us up for a nice gap down on Tuesday? We'll see.

Now, it's time to tally up all of my losses this month. I'm pretty sure my daytrading account has a nice 4 digit loss, but I think my swing portfolio has a nice 4 digit gain as well. My guess is that I'm down maybe $1k-$2k for this month. I should have all of my stats updated by September 5th or 6th when my Interactive Broker stats are updated on their side.

So, it's going to be very nice long weekend for me. I'm heading up to AC on Sunday to play some poker and maybe some blackjack. I'll be staying until Tuesday afternoon because my fantasy football live draft is on Tuesday night which I have to be back for. If anybody is heading up to AC this weekend, hit me up and I'll be happy to grab some drinks or something. I'll be up there with a few friends. It should be fun.

This week in the market has been nothing but a bore and I need me some gambling action. I'm so glad that the NFL season starts soon because I'm going to see if I can make me some real money in sportsbetting this season.

Alright everyone...have a super duper good long weekend.

In 10 DIA September $113 Puts at $0.45

I couldn't help myself. Either I'm right or I'm wrong. Max risk is only $450 on this trade.

In 10 DIA October $114 puts at $1.50

Worst comes to worst, we consolidate here. I don't see that much further upside unless we consolidate first.

Buying some DIA Oct $114 puts...

Call me crazy, but I'm going to buy some DIA October $114 puts at the close. Probably 10 contracts which will cost me about $1,450. I may go for the $115 puts...I'm not sure yet. Yeah, I'm still holding onto my September $112 puts, which I'm down about $1700 on right now, but when and if this market falls, I should be able to make it all back in one quick sweep of the legs...

RIMM

I'm already short, but if I had the balls, I'd be shorting even more here. This looks like a very attractive short because it's overbought on both the daily and weekly charts and we've just recently formed a bearish divergence on RSI (higher prices, but lower RSI). Not only that, but there's quite a bit of resistance up here. Not to mention that I think the overall market is due for a correction up here.



DIA

I know that this formation isn't complete yet and usually, it's not wise to try to catch tops, but just take a look at what's developing. First off, the McClellan Oscillator is forming a lower high while prices are forming higher highs. That's a bearish divergence. Next, we have the 2004 QQQQ chart, which looks very similar to the one below and we know what happened to QQQQ in the ensuing months....we went on to make new multi-month lows. Another thing to note is the declining volume on this latest surge. Prices have been going up, but volume has been going down. The Channel Commodity Index is also nearing overbought levels. RSI is coming close to overbought, but there's no clear trend from that indicator yet.

Like I said earlier, it's not the best idea to fight the trend, which is up right now, especially considering the fact that if we were to continue higher from here, it would pretty much nullify everything that I said above. However, with that said, we can't ignore what the chart below is telling us, which is that the trend could be changing soon. All good traders wait for a confirmation signal before entering into a trade. Our confirmation signal to short would be if the DOW had a big bearish day with decent volume some time next week. This is what I'll be looking for...

No trades for me today yet.



Thursday, August 31, 2006

Done for the day...-$38.20

What a waste of a day.

Covered 500 HANS at $27.68 for -$52.50

I'm not sure why I'm sitting here wasting my time in this motionless market.

Covered 500 HANS at $27.37 for +$105

Man..this actually looks pretty bearish because we've been consolidating in the bottom 1/3rd of this last drop for about 15 minutes now...it's only a matter of time before we break lower and head towards the lows of the day...

But I'm being disciplined here and I'm taking half off of the table to lock in some of the profits. I think according to Pristine.com, I'm supposed to take 1/3rd off here, then trail another 1/3rd above the 5-minute pivot high. And then the last 1/3rd, I'm not sure when I'm supposed to sell that. That shows you how much attention I pay towards details...

Short 1000 HANS at $27.58

50% retracement from this morning's drop.

Covered 500 RIMM at $82.74 for -$165

What a joke! I saw this shit coming from a mile away. It was a breakdown failure and w-bottom on lighter volume. My only regret was not sellilng when I recognized the pattern. I told myself that I'd let my stop determine my fate. Oh well...no biggie. I want some action, but I'm not getting anything...

Short 500 RIMM at $82.41

Stop above $82.65.

Mansion Sportsbook Promotion

Alright, so the football season is starting in a week. I don't normally talk about all of the sportsbook promotions out there, but this one seems too good to be true and I don't know how often something like this will come around. Basically, the deal is simple...you wager $1,100 on Pittsburg to win against the spread on September 7th and if they don't cover, then you get your money back. If they win, then you win $1,000. It's a no brainer right? Especially if you hedge your bet in another sportsbook, which I am not condoning, but at the same time, I can't stop you from doing it either (nudge, nudge).

The site is called Mansion.com. They're relatively new in the online sportsbook/casino/poker world, but from the looks of their site, they seem to have their shit together. This promotion is listed under the "Promotions" link on their front page. The terms and conditions of this promotion are listed in that link as well.

Now, if you want to do this through boogster.com then we'll give you an additional 9000 boogster points ($90 cash value) on top of this, but you will have to make an additional $500 in wagers in the sportsbook or play around 150-300 raked hands in the poker room in order to get the $90. Just follow the instructions on signing up from this link.

And if you want to hedge your bet, then you can sign up to Sports Interaction through boogster.com and receive an additional 10,000 boogster points ($100 value) for the signup. Hedging your bet on the Pittsburg game will fulfill the wagering requirements for this site, so all you have to do is sign up, place the wager, and then you can cash out if you want.

Since a lot of you guys are probably daytraders or poker players who have never signed up through boogster.com before, I'm going to make this deal even sweeter by offering an additional 5000 boogster points ($50 value), so long as you sign up to both sites before September 7th and you enter the code "blog promo" in the additional info field on the boogster registration form.

There's no chance that you'll be able to find a better deal anywhere else. Tell your friends about it too. And if I were you, I'd take advantage of this promo asap because they could pull the promo at any time. I don't understand why they're doing it in the first place. The only thing that I can think of is the fact that the Superbowl Champions are 1-15 against the spread (I think) in the past 16 seasons in their first game of the new season, so they're not expecting Pitt to cover.

Man...I am soooo ready for the football season to start! Let me know what you guys think.


added 11:48am
Sorry, I botched the logic behind the promo. There's really no need to hedge your bet because you will breakeven either way. However, if you hedge your bet, then you are switching the wager to the other side. Instead of wanting Pitt to cover, you'll be rooting for Miami to cover. You will lose the $100 juice, but history dictates that the returning superbowl champ rarely covers in their first game of the new season.

Also, if you hedge your bet, you will get an additional $150 from boogster.com.

added 10:57pm
Alright, so there is some logic behind hedging your bet. If you bet $550 to win $500 on Miami to cover at another sportsbook, then you will win $450 regardless of the outcome of the game.

Out 5 YM at 11393 for +$84.20

Just messing around on a boring ass day. Actually, this looks like a pretty attractive long setup, as there is much support around this area...not sure why I sold so soon....oh well...

Long 5 YM at 11389

I'll give it a shot right here for a small lot. I'll give it a 10 point stop.

HANS

Keep an eye on HANS this morning. While we are still way oversold, we had a bearish consolidation after the big gap down and today, we've broken below the consolidation low. Which means that we can probably look for another short opportunity today. There is still very little support below...

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Done for the day...+$368.40

Not a very exciting day today. I could've made it a little more exciting by taking a few gambles, but I really wasn't in the mood to lose any more money today. Like I said, I'll wait for a better spot to get all of my money in. That spot will come soon enough.

Looking at the daily chart of DIA, we made a new multi-week high during the day, but failed to close above that high. I'd still like for us to close above that high, then shortly after we start turning over. As we stand right now, the McClellan Osciallator looks like it's forming a bearish divergence and rarely does the MO lie. To me, it is one of the strongest and most reliable indicators as of late. But there's no sell confirmation yet, so sit tight and enjoy the movie.

Friday's going to be a half-session, and we'll most likely NOT see a lot of action due to traders taking the long weekend off. Yeah, it's gonna be even MORE boring over the next two days. I suggest that you carry a bottle of water with you, so that you can water the grass while you watch it grow over the next two days on your trading system...

Night. I'm out.

Out 5 YM at 11394 for -$50

Maybe I just got sucked out, I'm not sure...the TICK made a new low though. I'm not taking any chances in this shit ass market.

In 5 YM at 11396

I'll sell if the TICK breaks below -181.

TradeTheMarkets.com - Leasing a seat on the CBOT

Every time I watch his videos, he teaches me something new. Did you guys know that you can lease a seat on the CBOT and CME to reduce your commissions? Apparently, you save quite a bit of money, so long as you make at least 3 round trip futures trades per day...

link


Now, an update on the markets...we're looking pretty bullish now. The TRIN has finally started to downtrend again and the TICK is hovering in between 0 and 1000. And we just broke out of our mutli-hour consolidation high. Look for resistance around the R1 line at 11409.

TICK and TRIN

TICK just went to -500, which means the trend is changing. TRIN is trending higher and about to make a new high, hovering around the 1.30 area, which is pretty bearish. Not the best idea to be long right now..

Looks like shorted RIMM a little too early...I still think that we're near the top though...

First Fantasy Football draft..

I've got my first fantasy football draft coming up here in 30 minutes. This is my "free league" with my old coworkers. Most of them know their football, but I think they do more shit talking than they have fantasy skills. I hope they're reading this too because I'm taking home the ring this season...beatches. Boogskins all the way.

Anybody got any sleepers for me?

Out 5 YM at 11417 for +$434.20

How do you like them apples?!? Nah, I'm just kidding...just letting out a little bit of aggression from the punishment over the past two weeks. This duldrom shit has humbled me.

Anyways, the multi-week high was at 11418. I'm gonna take my profits here and see what happens. We're looking bullish though. The TRIN is downtrending now and the TICK is remaining in bullish territory...

Remember, don't ever sleep on those market internals. I slept on them a few days ago when the market kept going higher and higher...

Long 5 YM at 11399

5 contracts...what a wuss...hah...call me gunshy.

Wednesday Morning Update...

Alright...so the TICK is on the bullish side this morning, but the TRIN is trending higher, which means that we're getting conflicting market internals. I really shouldn't be surprised though because the market action in the past two weeks has been nothing less than confusing to me. Definately going to have to practice my patience today. I'm not going to force anything though because I don't feel like burning another thousand bucks today...those bitches aren't getting another dime from me...

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Done for the day...-$679.45

Uhh...I don't really have much to say about today's action. Unpredictable...I guess that's the best word to describes my feelings towards the recent market action. I guess I'll have to practice my patience until volume picks up again. Damn, did I just say "patience"...I hate that word...

I'm gonna see if I can get in some poker action tonight somewhere. I need some sort of gambling action...I'm starting to twitch....is there a preseason football game on tonight?

TradingTheMarkets.com

Their analysis on this morning's action:

link

I've pretty much given up on today's trading mainly because I can't figure out which way we're going, to save my life. I'm going to do what I normally do when I'm confused...I'm going to cut down on the trading and wait for a better spot to enter the market. As much as I want to get some of my recent losses back, losing more money will make me even more bitter. So, I might as well sit tight and wait for a better spot to go all-in.

Covered 10 YM at 11337 for -$350

Frustration.

Short 10 YM at 11330

Covered 625 RIMM at $81.65 for -$212.50

Boring. I need to go get me some grub.

Covered 325 RIMM at $81.54 for -$74.75

My other 625 shares hasn't gotten filled yet. This market is so boring today. Makes me want to pull my hair out. This would've been the perfect week to head up to AC.

Covered 500 SNDK at $54.25 breakeven

I wanted to see a faster drop...no continuation.

Short 500 SNDK at $54.25

Looks like a breakout failure and 180 degree reversal. Similar to what I think is going to happen to the YM in the next few days. You should see this intraday chart. Doesn't it look familiar? Notice the breakout failure at 12:12pm.

Covered 10 YM at 11328 for +$50

Mini short squeeze? Not really sure. Notice how we broke above the highs to take out all of the short stops...bastards...

Short 10 YM at 11329

We should head down to about 11308.

Short 1000 RIMM at $81.31

This is in my daytrading account. The YM just broke through the downside of its bearish ascending wedge pattern. And it looks like the S&P and Nasdaq are following suit.

Short 300 RIMM at $81.74

Swing trade in my swing portfolio.

RIMM

Time to short?



Bearish divergence. I think it's time to short a few hundred shares in my swing portfolio again.

Tuesday's Market Direction...

My initial analysis says that we're going higher today, but from all of the comments and that dude from TradingTheMarkets.com, I guess I've learned to let the market internals dictate which direction to trade for the day. It makes sense. If it makes sense, then I'm all for it.

What I know from past experience is that I almost always lose money on days like yesterday. Days in which indicators are pretty much useless because the market internals are so bullish or bearish. In the future, I need to recognize these situations, so that I don't lose money on them again.

Looking back on Friday's action and yesterday's action. Both days started out the same, where we gapped slightly lower then ran straight up for about 45 minutes. However, in Friday's action, after the 45 minute high, we retraced lower all the way into the close. Yesterday, we made a new high after 45 minutes and continued higher throughout the rest of the day. So, the question is, how do we determine whether the we're going to continue higher or lower throughout the rest of the day? Well, looking at the TICK, I noticed that in Friday's action, we had a reading of -500 at 10:22am. Whereas, yesterday, we barely broke below the 0 line on the TICK for the entire day. The -500 TICK reading on Friday was just a warning sign that the market was not as strong as we had anticipated and that we should've sold our long position if we were long.

The thing is this...I did the exact same thing on Friday as I did yesterday. I shorted close to the high around 10:15am on both days. In one instance, we went higher and in another, we went lower. Both markets LOOKED strong. The difference was in the TICK reading. Next time, I will try not to make the same mistake.

Okay, let's make some friggin money today.

Last Friday's intra-day chart


Yesterday's intra-day chart

Monday, August 28, 2006

Done for the day...-$1,713.60

Okay, so I made a few trades without posting them. Needless to say, they were almost all bad ones. I just didn't want to read any more comments about my trades, especially when I'm in the trade. Normally I post them in near real time, but I was in a little bit of a sour mood today. It doesn't help that I have to post this big loss on top of that. What's done is done though. I really can't, nor should, blame anyone for my bad trades though, except for myself...

You know, I don't know what it is, but I've been a little bit scared lately...usually, I'm pretty confident when I enter a trade, but over the past few sessions, I've been so damn hesitant. This is not good. Perhaps it's because I'm not really getting any good setups? Instead, I've been basically gambling on my trades and forcing them. That's why there's been a lack of confidence? I really don't know what it is, but I do know that confidence is key.

3 more trading days till the end of the month. I think I'm either slightly down or breakeven right now for the month. WTF? All of this hard work and nothing to show for it! That's what's so damn lovely about this game. There's no chance that I'm stopping until I get me that Porsche Carerra GT...paid for all in cash.

TradeTheMarkets.com

This guy explains today's market action to perfection:

link

DIA vs. 2004 QQQQ

Perhaps today is what I've been waiting for? The first chart is of the Nasdaq in 2004. The second chart is of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF today.




Volume is so weak today, yet we're up over 80 points! Breakouts that lack volume are NOT real breakouts. Like I said, we take out all of the stops above on low volume, then we drop like a brick. I guess we can look at the McClellan Oscillator for confirmation. If we make a higher high in price, but a lower high in the McClellan Oscillator, then that will be our signal to short the hell out of this puppy. The DIA October $113 puts look pretty attractive right now.

Covered 10 YM at 11356 for breakeven

I've been such a wuss lately. Maybe it's because I have absolutely no idea where we're going in the short term? No point in flipping coins to see who wins....

Short 10 YM at 11356

Time for a retracement...I gotta go with my read...

Covered 10 YM at 11336 for -$350

Man, this bitch is overbought. I wouldn't even feel comfortable buying here. I'd rather wait for the retracement, which hasn't come yet.

Short 10 YM at 11329

Just for a scalp. It's better to be buying the dips today, but we're way overbought right now.

Today's market action...

Well...the YM looks like it's in a descending triangle pattern to me. Until we get a break of one of these trendlines, it going to be the same old stuff today.



As far as stocks...I'm watching SNDK for a possible short. It's way overbought here. And I'm sure the shorts felt the pain last Thursday and Friday and most of them have already covered. So, it's time. I don't think that we'll get a lot of action to the downside today, but over the next few days, we should be able to make some money on the short side. Perhaps a nice little swing trade.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

NFL Challenge 2006

Come on guys...join up! It's fun, it's free, and we're giving away a whole bunch of free shit, including a souped up Dell laptop to the winner. Last year's winner won a 42" Panasonic Plasma TV.

NFL Challenge 2006

Trust me, it's like no other NFL game that you've ever played because you actually get to place wagers like a real sportsbetting site. It's not like those stupid suicide pools, or king of the hill pools or those pick'em games where the winners are always people who know nothing about football. In NFL Challenge, only the best handicappers will win.

Once the NFL season starts, you'll hear me yapping about it in my blog, so you might as well join up to see what the yapping is all about. BTW...tell your friends about it too.

Friday, August 25, 2006

Done for the week...-$95.61

Ehh...the week started off nice with my RIMM short and then it just got worse and worse as the week progressed. If only I would've stopped trading after Monday! :) Hindsight is 20/20. I'm out.

Done for the day...-$283.20

I gave up on trading today. Mainly because I wanted to put this week behind me and go through the weekend with any more losses in my mind. And also because the ECBOT stopped taking trades at around 2:40pm EST due to exchange problems. They're gonna reopen at 4:00pm EST.

Anyways...8 minutes till the close. I was pretty much done with the day at around 12:00pm today. Time to hit Gordon Biersch for a few brewskies or 10...I'm out.

Daytradeteam.com lifetime subscription?

So...who else signed up for DTT's lifetime subscription?

Out 3 YM at 11307 for -$22.50

This is boring. I don't really want to call it a day though.

Bored...

Anybody else bored?

Out 7 YM at 11300 for -$297.50

Still holding 3 contracts because it didn't get filled. I thought that we were going higher, but I guess I'm wrong??

In 5 YM at 11306

50% retracement almost complete.

In 5 YM at 11311

I botched the exit on that short position. We should retrace back up to 11324 from here.

Covered 5 YM at 11322 for +$50

Peanuts. We have a few topping tails, but we couldn't even retrace 40% from that last run. 40% would put us at 11316, 50% would put us at 11308 and 60% would put us at 11300. Let's see how far we retrace before moving higher.

Looks like we have a 40% retracement...

Covered 5 YM at 11323 for +$25

Taking some off of the table. I obviously entered at the wrong time, as the YM went up to 11340 before retracing. We're holding up pretty strong though and the TICK is staying within the 0 to 1000 range, which means that there's definately a bullish bias in the market today. I wanna see how we react to this nice early morning runup, then I think we'll know more about where this market is going for the rest of the day.

Short 10 YM at 11324

Should be a little bit of resistance here, but the overall market bias should be to the upside today...

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Done.

What an emotional roller coaster! Yesterday, I was kicking and screaming and yelling like a little kid. And then I actually crawled up into a little ball in the corner of my condo and cried for a little bit. Sike...there was no kicking involved, but the rest is true. I'm just kidding. In all honestly though, I felt so bitter yesterday...so bitter that I traded so poorly, undisciplined, and sooo recklessly. I dropped $4,500 yesterday! I tried to make the font smaller, but that was the smallest. Can you imagine I how I felt? Not well, that's for certain. Anyways, it's too painful to write a blog when I get punished like that, but at the same time, this blog keeps me honest with myself because I know that whatever I do, I'll have to put it out there for everyone to read.

So, I made $3,079.55 back today. But I'm still down about $1,400 over the past two days, which puts me at about breakeven for the week. Why is it that when I need to make money, I do, but when I want to make money, I can't? I mean, how often do I have +$3k days in my daytrading account? Rarely. Especially on days in which the trading range was only 68 ticks! But it was as if I was on a mission today...a mission to prove myself. Perhaps it was just dumb luck that I got some of my money back? I don't know. Whatever it is, I wish that I have more days like today. I wish that I could have this same mentality day in and day out. Yesterday, I felt scared, as seen from my early morning trades...today, I was confident and fearless. Yesterday, I lost money...today, I made money. Perhaps there's some sort of correlation in there somewhere? I often say that I'll have it all figured out one of these days, but in all honesty, I don't think I'll EVER have it all figured out...

On another note, I signed up for the lifetime membership to DTT. They're charging $799 for current subscribers, so I said "why not?". I mean, I'm basically paying $799 for another set of eyes on the market...how cheap is that? Besides, I think that they're a good bunch of guys who run a good business. I like dealing with good people and good businesses. Don't tell anyone, but I actutally did a few PSO and ECD offers back in the days, but it was mainly to check out the competition...hah.

Okay...I can sleep somewhat peacefully tonight again. Last night, I was sitting on 10 contracts of the YM, hoping and praying for a gap up this morning. I'm free of positions today though. Tomorrow is a brand new day...let's see if I can make it a positive one...have a good evening.

No Volume...

There's just not enough volume in today's market to convincingly say that the downtrend has officially started. Until we see some real volume, I still expect the market the make a new high to take out all of the short stops, then we go for broke to the downside...



Look at the volume that accompanied the start of the downtrend in the 2004 QQQQ chart.

Trading the markets...

BTW...check out this video from one of the guys over at Tradingthemarkets.com. Looks like he's thinking what I'm thinking...we make a new high to take out the short stops, then we go lower...

link

68.4%

Got back 68.4% of my losses from yesterday. Phew...makes me feel a little bit better. If I can get it all back today, then we'll just act like yesterda never happened...

Paying taxes for e-mini trades...

I've always wondered what kind of tax implications there are for e-mini futures trading. Well, here's the answer:

Link

Looks like futures trading is not taxed at the same percentage as regular securities trading. Short term securities trades are taxed at 35% whereas futures are taxed at a lower rate, 23%?? I don't really understand all of the tax mumbo jumbo in the link...maybe someone can help me out?

YM Crazy...

I've been scalping the YM like crazy. 10 contracts here, 20 contracts there. Why is it so much easier to lose money than it is to make money? Seriously, I feel like I've been in the construction business for the past few hours. I've gotten about half of my losses back from yesterday...there's still more work to be done. Damn, this sucks...I hate working from the ground up...

Mini blowup...

I had a mini blowup yesterday afternoon. Let's just say that I started doing my 20 contract YM thing left and right. I must've mistook my mouse button for a joystick, because if you were watching me, it sure looked like I was playing a game. Like that old school Track and Field game at the arcade. Long, short, long, short...it wasn't pretty. I'm actually a little bit embarrassed by how much I lost yesterday. You should've seen me screaming at my monitor. I'm sure it would've been quite hilarious to an onlooker. Anyways, I'm going to try to make it back today, then I'll come clean with my losses.

Yesterday afternoon probably ranks in my top 5 of my bonehead moves of all time, with my GOOG trade being number 1 and that $6.175k YM trade being number 2. I should seriously make a list...

Okay...focus Danielson. Casino Market opens in 8 minutes.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Out 5 YM at 11291 for -$175

Definately getting chopped up here. Probably best to sit back and relax for the rest of the day...

In 10 YM at 11298

Let's see if I can make some money on the long side now.

Covered 5 YM at 11304 for -$100

Ehh...got stopped out. Could've had a $300 gain. I was looking for that home run again. The TICK is making higher highs though, which means that a change in trend is taking place...

Covered 5 YM at 11300 for breakeven

Gunshy today.

Short 10 YM at 11300

Stop above the pivot high at 11304.

Covered 10 YM at 11296 for +$150

Wow...we're tanking now...

Short 10 YM at 11299

Quickie..

Covered 5 YM at 11293 for -$75

It just doesn't feel right...I wanted to see a quick drop...that didn't happen, so I'm out...

Covered 5 YM at 11289 for +$25

I don't know...it just doesn't feel right. I guess I'm a little gunshy today. I'm taking half off of the table, just to be safe. My stop is above the 5-min pivot high at 11298.

Short 10 YM at 11290

Just for a scalp. No chance that I should be going long in this market because the TICK has barely surpassed 500 for the entire day. If the TICK can manage to get up to 1000 somehow, then I'm out...

Yawn...

What a boring market today. We've been in a tight trading range for about 2 1/2 hours now! Time to do some studying for my upcoming fantasy football draft...

Price Action vs. Technical Indicators

Okay...I didn't short this morning because RSI was low, but in retrospect, I should've noticed the price action first. One of the major rules in daytrading is to always take price action OVER technical indicators. ALWAYS. Technical indicators should only be used to improve your entry and exit points. Price action never lies.

Now, let's look at the chart of the YM from this morning:



Notice that we had a very bullish start to the morning, then around 9:50am, we started to decline. For the next 20 minutes, we retraced over 100% of the morning run...a very bearish sign. Notice that the price at the high was around 11391. And when the 100% retracement ended, the low was around 11348. So, that was a 43 point move to the downside. Now, look at the bearish consolidation that ensued over the next 45 minutes. We consolidated in the bottom 1/3rd of the big move down, which is very very bearish. Good traders should've noticed this pattern and should've prepared themselves to short below the consolidation low at 11341. At 10:45am, we broke that low. Over the next 10 minutes, we has a minor consolidation. This would've been the perfect time for me to short, except I looked at the RSI and noticed that it was very low...which dissuaded me from entering a short position. In hindsight, I should've shorted. My stop would've been above the consolidation high at 11357 and my target would've been a 43 point move from the start of the new downtrend, which would've put it at 11309.

How easy it is to dissect a chart AFTER the fact. I've got to learn to take price action over my technical indictors. I think I'm relying too much on them. Same with yesterday. We had a double top in the morning in which I should've sold my long position after the break, but I failed to do so. We all know what happened after that...I took a 52 tick loss on that trade!!

Okay...let's make some money!!!

Out 5 YM at 11311 for +$150

Just for a quickie.

Out 5 YM at 11307 for +$50

Ehh...probably not a good idea to be holding 10 long contracts in this downtrending market.

Long 10 YM at 11305

We're just ridiculously oversold here. I'm just in this for a bounce.

T.J. Duckett

Nice...we just landed T.J. Duckett:

Link

Can't wait for the football season to start. The Skins go to the show this year.

Nothing...

I've got nothing right now. Anybody have a play out there for me?

RMBS

I just noticed that it gapped up big this morning. Pristine.com calls this type of setup a bullish mortgage play. Well, not really, since we didn't actually gap up above yesterday's high at $12.55, but it's close enough. Look for a pullback though. Money can be potentially be made on the long side today for RMBS....

Hurting...

I need about 4 more hours of sleep. Anyways...part of me wants this market to go higher, just so that I'm certain that a top is near. Right now, if we drop from here, I'm going to be a little suspect of this topping formation. If we can just pop to new highs over the next two or three days, then I'll be convinced...

I guess I'm going to just play it as it comes today. The trend is my friend, right?

8 hour $2/$5 NL session...

Just finished an 8 hour $2/$5 NL session at an underground poker game. -$800. What a bad run of cards! One hand, I had pocket queens against pocket kings...another hand I flopped a pair of queens with an Ace kicker and the other guy had pocket kings...and then, in two other hands, I got sucked out on the river when we got it all in!! It was an ugly night. I must say that in the first two hands above, I laid both of them down with about a $150 in losses for each hand. It sucks flopping top pair when your opponent has an overpair, but I did make the big laydown when I was beat, so I think I played the hands well. It's funny how a few hands in the whole night makes the difference in whether you come out as a winner or a loser. So, basically, I just blew all of my AC winnings in this game. Oh well.

4 hours and 45 minutes until the market opens. I need to get me some sleep....

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Put to Call Ratio

Check out the put-to-call ratio:



The Index Put/Call Ratio is generally considered the "smart money" and the Equity Put/Call Ratio is generally considered the "dumb money". The last time the Total Put/Call Ratio got up to the 1.15 area was on August 4th, when the DOW began a 200 point slide. Perhaps today is the day that starts the slide? Whatever happens, one thing is for certain...the "smart money" betting on further downside action. I'm not sure about you, but I think I'll stick with the "smart money".

Quit for the Day...-$725.20

It could've been a lot worst. One of my problems over the past two days has been the fact that I've been looking for those "home run" trades instead of those quick scalps like I normally do. That's a problem because I'm trading using the 2-min charts. 2-min charts should only be used for scalping, not intra-day swing trading, like I've been attempting to do. That's what the 15-min and 60-min charts are for.

Also, I need to get over my stubborness of taking a loss. Stubborness is probably the absolute worst characteristic that a daytrader can possess. I guess another one of my problems is that I'm not really in this "game" to grind it out and to make money to pay my rent. Fortunately, I already have a primary source of income that takes care of that stuff. With that said, to be brutally honest, my ultimate goal is to become filthy rich from daytrading. I see this is a problem because I feel as though I need to take bigger risks in order to get to where I want to go. I guess the key is to find the balance between obtaining my goal and assuming a smaller risk...if someone finds that balance, then please do let me know...

Have a good day.

Covered 10 YM at 11370 for +$150

Hit and run. I'm pretty sure that this is considered gambling.

Short 10 YM at 11373

Just for a quickie.

Out 5 YM at 11348 for -$1,300

Here's the big one. Live by the sword and die by the sword. Take my stops, TAKE MY STOPS, TAKE MY STOPS!!! I might have to pull a Glenn and tape my trading rules to my monitor. I'm willing to do whatever it takes to make me become the best trader ever...

Out 10 YM at 11341 for +$150

I'm clawing my way back. It shouldn't be this way though.

In 10 YM at 11338

Just for a quick scalp.

Covered 10 YM at 11346 for breakeven

Don't worry, there's still a big loss coming from those 5 contracts that I have at 11400. Ughh...

As much as I hate using hard stops, I think that I may have to look into using them or else one of these days, I'm gonna get myself hurt.

Self destructing...

I am self-destructing here...wtf is going on? This is what I get for trading like an idiot today! Ignoring stops, trading too many contracts, etc. Discipline, discipline!!!

In 10 YM at 11346

I obviously have no clue what I'm doing today! Oh man...it's one of those days again!

Out 15 YM at 11362 for +$375

Doing crazy stuff again.

In 15 YM at 11357

Covered 5 YM at 11370 for -$175

Man...we just fell off of a cliff...what in the world?

In 5 YM at 11377

Looks like a bullish divergence to me in a strong market. I'm in for a trade...

Out 10 YM at 11383 for +$250

I'm gonna get out of my other 5 contracts soon...it's lunchtime.

In 10 YM at 11378

Ehh...didn't want to do this, but...averaging down...

Trader Psychology...

Often times, when trying to decide on which side of the market to be on, I ask myself, "what are the bulls and bears thinking at this exact moment?". Well, I asked myself that question last night. From reading various blogs on the internet, mainly Tim Knight's blog, I can say that the bears are probably feeling the pain right now, but not enough pain to make them jump ship just yet. Imagine if I were still holding my 10 short contracts of the YM from below. Every day, I'd be waiting for a dip so that I could take my loss. The problem is, we've barely retraced from the lows set a week ago. Every dip has been bought. The bears have got to be getting a little nervous. If I were still holding, I'd be nervous as crap.

Now, the bulls. My dad is a "swing trader"...well, kind of. He owns his own business and like most financial savvy investors out there, he occasionally makes a trade during working hours, when he's not busy. I consider him to be the "average investor". Right now, he's a bull. You know what stocks he has right now? Nothing. All cash. Yeah...he sold everything on this latest runup. Now, I know for a fact that he's probably looking at this market wondering why he's not in it. He's going to "miss the huge run up". That's my guess as to what he's thinking. Within a day or two, he's going to put his cash to work and reenter this market.

Now, what happens when the shorts cover and the guys who are sitting on the sidelines with cash start buying? Well, we have a short squeeze. That's my guess as to what's going to happen over the next few days. The shorts are going to finally give up, the bulls are going to put their cash to work and the professional traders (institutions and OEX traders) will be shorting the crap out of this market. Guess what I'm going to be doing?

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.74 for +$90

Winner #2 from DTT. I'm gonna play all of their picks today and see what happens. Maybe I'll make like $200!

Out 1000 MSFT at $26.19 for +$20

I finally picked a DTT winner! For a whopping $20. What a joke.

Long 1000 QQQQ at $38.64

Boring day. DTT pick.

Long 1000 MSFT at $26.16

DTT pick. Honestly, I'm just buying this for fun because I'm bored. How many professional daytraders do you know that buy stocks just for fun? I'm so bad. Whatever.

Long 5 YM at 11400

It looks like it's just a matter of time before we breakout...

Today's Market Direction...

Yesterday, I was pretty certain that we were going lower, at least in the early part of the trading day. Today, I'm not as certain. Days like today are the days in which I usually lose money because I'm not really sure about the market direction. When I'm not sure about the market direction, I tend to buy the dips, when I should be shorting into strength and vice versa. At least I'm aware of my weaknesses, huh? The second step is to fix these weaknesses so that I can become even more profitable.

Looking at my market internal indicators (TRIN, TICK, VIX), it looks like it's going to be a bullish day. The TRIN is trading at 0.77, which generally means to buy the dips. It's still early, but the TICK has traded between -200 to 600, which is somewhat bullish. The VIX isn't giving us much help right now. And then, of course, in the 2004 QQQQ chart, the QQQQ went up for two straight days after the day like yesterday.

I guess, I'm buying on the dips today? Note that the multi-week high on the YM sits at 11418. We're trading at 11396 right now.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Done for the day...+$2,265.60

I expected the YM to close at or near its low of the day...instead it closed at its high. WTF does this mean? I have no idea. Perhaps we get one more consolidation day before making a new multi-week high? Whatever happens, I know that one thing is for certain....we are nearing an intermediate term top. Bash me if you want, "why do you keep fighting the trend?"...call me a pessimist if you want...I don't care. I make money by predicting the future of the stock market using technical analysis. I think I'm pretty decent at what I do. My analysis says that we're going lower in the upcoming weeks. I think it's going to be a great opportunity to make a ton of money on the short side, assuming that I'm right.

For those of you in intermediate term long positions, get out of em, or else you will feel the pain in a month or two. Don't say that I didn't warn you. Only time will tell whether I'm right or wrong. Hopefully, it'll be the former and not the latter.

Have a good day.

Covered 5 YM at 11382 for -$575

One of these days taking my stops will be automatic. A no-brainer. Until then, I'm going to have to face the agony of holding onto a losing position because I didn't take my stop. I think if I took my stops like I'm supposed to, then I'd be a lot less stressed out when I'm trading. Not taking my stops probably accounts for 75% of my trading related stress. Sigh.

I hate ending the day with a loss. It makes me so bitter. Soooo bitter. Now I gotta wait a whole friggin day to get my $575 back.

Virginia Tech Shooting Suspect Caught!

Police scanner in the VT area:

Scanner link

They got him in cuffs right now...

Virginia Tech Shooting..

Not sure if anybody is following this story, but it's my old school. Scary. The killer looks just like a student.



Va Tech Shooting Article

Short 5 YM at 11359

Sell setup right here.

Close at the low of the day?

We should close at the low of the day today, which means that I should be able to make another 20 ticks or so. I'm gonna wait for another short opportunity from here on out. I'm not going long today...

Covered 10 YM at 11346 for +$1,200

RSI is getting low on all time frames and we are nearing Friday's low at 11342. Risk/Reward is just not that great here. I could've trailed 1/3 above the 5-minute pivot high, but I hate trailing stops. We may go a little bit lower towards Thursday's low at 11331, but we are most likely nearing a bottom here. Remember, if DIA follows that 2004 QQQQ chart, then we should make new multi-week highs in the next two days. Be careful.

I'm getting some of those losses back from last week...I friggin hate 6.1k losses...hate em...let's see if I can get it all back plus more...

Covered 10 YM at 11347 for +$1150

Man...it was soo hard holding for so long. I wanted to take profits so many times.

Short 10 YM at 11371

20 contracts now.

Short 5 YM at 11373

We're going to 11331 at a minimum today.

Short 5 YM at 11366

Alright, let's give it a go. I was hoping to make some real money today, but the big gap down kinda changed my plans. Sucks!

Covered 300 RIMM at $77.90 for +$552.00

I'm taking profits here. $77.82 was last Thursday's low. I like the nice move down. There may be more, but when I get a 2 point drop in less than 10 minutes, I'm taking it.

All set...

I was all set on shorting 20 contracts of the YM after the expected gap up this morning, but it looks like we're gapping down almost 40 points instead. Now that changes things. My target was and still is around the 11331 area, which was last Thursday's low. If I were to short here, then I would put a stop a few ticks above Friday's high at 11418. My risk/reward ratio is now very close to breakeven. Not exactly what I wanted. I guess I'll have to wait until I get a nice short setup before entering my short position. 11400 should be a nice little resistance area.

Friday, August 18, 2006

Done for the week...-$3,257.20

If you count my HANS swing short trade, which I made $3,585.61 on, then I'm actually +$328.41 on the week. That one stupid YM trade cost me $6.1k. Ewe. That one sucked. But what doesn't make me go broke will only make me stronger. Let's live and learn and move on.

Monday is the start of a new week. Who's in for shorting 10 contracts of the YM for 100 ticks on Monday morning? If history repeats itself, then Monday should be a gap and crap day. We gap higher and then tank like a falling brick from a skyscraper. I can't wait. Rest up and get ready for the battle on Monday.

Have a good weekend.

Done for the day...+$490.00

A day on the plus side is a good day.

Back home now...

Just got back. This market is playing out perfectly. The YM is closing at the high of the days, which sets Monday up for a lot of money to be made on the short side. Expect a gap up on Monday, which will be shortable....Perfect.

2004 QQQQ Chart...

Here's what I'm talking about, re: 2004 QQQQ chart:


I'm not saying that we're going to follow this exact same pattern, but we can definately use it as reference. Like I said before, chart patterns tend to repeat themselves...that's how us daytraders make money in the markets.

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.45 for -$35

Yeah, I don't like it.

Looking at that 2004 QQQQ chart, the day after the doji day, we had a strong bullish day in which we closed at the high of the day. Perhaps today will be no different? This is most likely due to the fact that everybody saw yesterday as a reversal day. It only makes sense that we go up, right? Because everybody thinks that the market will go down. Does that make sense? Then, if you look at the chart on the day after the doji day, the market dropped like a brick...

Covered 1000 QQQQ at $38.48 for -$65

DTT didn't call for a cover, but I don't like this price action.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.42

Just realized that I needed some more share to make a decent profit on this stock. So, I've got 2000 at $38.415 now.

Short 1000 QQQQ at $38.41

DTT pick. 50% retracement back up after the down move.

Covered 150 SHLD at $140.23 for +$610

There are way too many August $140 puts. I don't know if this stock pins or not, but that is the Max Pain price. I doubt that it'll go any lower than that today. That's not to say that we won't go lower next week though. I'm gonna take my profits here and see what happens at the end of the day...

AC Trip Report

Here are my tallys for the trip:

$2/$5 NL : +$1533
$20/$40 limit: -$142
Tourneys: -$550

Net Total : +$841

That's about it for this trip. I didn't play a single hand of blackjack as I said I wouldn't. This was a poker trip only. I'm a bit disappointed by not cashing in any of the three tournaments that I played in, but I felt really good about the way that I played. I don't feel as though I could've done too much differently, but then again, analyzing myself doesn't really mean too much. Until I get that win or at least a cash, there's gotta something flawed in my game.

On a better note, I won another $724 last night in the $2/$5 NL game. It's a lock that I can break these games on a consistent basis. That's how easy I think it is. I think that I may venture up to the $5/$10 NL game next time...

Alright...I'm actually still here in AC, but no more gambling for me. I'm gonna try to make a quick buck or two in the markets, then get out outta here...

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Done for the day...+$495.80

Alright...I'm done for today. I'm itching to go play some poker. I'm gonna hold my SHLD short position. I've got a nice $330 gain on it right now. Hopefully, I'll have even more tomorrow.

RIMM Technical Analysis

Looking at the weekly chart of RIMM. Notice the resistance going all the way back mid 2004. This gives us our resistance line and tells us where we should be looking to short the stock.




Now...move down to the daily chart:

Notice the declining volume, high RSI (above 75) and high CCI and the slight topping tail. This is exactly what we want to see when looking for a short position. And we are nearing major resistance. Golden. For me, I'd rather wait until we get confirmation of the top before entering the swing position, but I think short here with a tight stop is okay as well. We'll see what happens in the next few days.

Short 300 RIMM at $79.74 - Swing Port

DTT just issued a swing trade alert. Short RIMM at market. I like the setup, so I'm gonna jump in on this one. Stop at $84.04.

SHLD Short...holding overnight?

I really like this SHLD short position. I think I may hold it overnight. I'll be breaking one of my rules, but I'll just treat it as a swing position...

Covered 5 YM at 11375 for +$200

Lots of volume to the downside coming in here, but RSI is crazy low right now and there should be a little bit of support here. I'll wait it out.

Covered 5 YM at 11382 for +$50

I've got 5 at an average of 11383 now.

Short 5 YM at 11390

NMGC

What a botched call this one was. But anyways, it's up 14% today on 49,000 shares. Something is going on? I'm still holding onto my 1300 shares at 7 and change. Keep an eye on it cause this one will move quickly...with absolutely no news...

update 1:41pm
Here's the news:
"NeoMagic-NMGC trades up 15% on chatter of an APPL win-Rumor ($3.00 +38c) - (theflyonthewall.com 08/17 13:35:15)"

"NeoMagic Corporation is a maker of semiconductor chips and software that enable new multimedia applications for handheld devices. We hear the stock is moving higher on speculation it will have a component in the next generation video iPod."

Short 150 SHLD at $144.31

The price finally caught up to it's downtrending 13 period MA.

Short 5 YM at 11377

Yeah...this is it. Bearish divergence in the RSI on both the 5-min and 15-min charts. We're at the two week high resistance point. So many factors pointing to lower prices. It's just a matter of timing...

Covered 5 YM at 11372 for -$75

We should've dropped by now.

Short 5 YM at 11369

Double top here?

Covered 300 PD at $90.26 for $243

I'm gonna lock in my profits here.

Covered 5 YM at 11366 for +$150

bottoming tails and a strong bounce off of the 20 period MA. TICK also went above +1000. Perhaps we're forming a double top here? I'll give it a few minutes.

Short 5 YM at 11372

We're nearing the 11375 resistance point. RSI is overbought. If we don't get a pullback in the next few minutes, I'm out.

SHLD short...

Keep a close eye on SHLD today. Looks like a breakout failure. We had a pretty bearish gap down this morning and now all of the bulls are trapped at the top. You know what this means...we should be headed lower...

Short 300 PD at $91.08

I like this bearish gap down. I'm still expecting us to close around $87.50 tomorrow.

Due for a pullback today...

Look for 11375 on the YM. There should be some resistance there, as it was the high set two weeks ago. I'm definately going to be looking for short entries today versus long entries. Watch my first trade be a long entry...hah. Always happens.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

I hate tournaments....

5 tables left in the $100+$20, with $100 add-on...I'm sitting pretty with about 30,000 in chips...well above the 18,000 average. Blinds are at 800/1600 with 300 antes. A player from early position limps in for 1,600. I have Q-T suited, so I limp in as well. The big stack to my immediate left does a min raise up to 3,200. Everybody folds to the early position player who calls the raise. I call as well. The flop comes A-K-J with two clubs. Yeah, I friggin flopped the nuts against the two big stacks at the table! The early position player immediately goes all-in. I pretend like I'm pondering a call, when in reality I'm thinking about where I'm going to spend that $6,000 when I win the tournament. I finally call. And then the big stack thinks for a little bit and reluctantly calls. They both have me covered. The early position player shows AK and the big stack shows AJ. I'm friggin golden. Only a total of 5 outs. The turn brings a Ten, which doesn't help anybody. And the river brings a.... Jack. IGHN.

This is why I hate tournaments. If I would've won that hand, then I would've had well over 1/9th of all of the chips in play. All of this hard work and one card ruined my entire tournament. I can't even play any more poker tonight because I am so friggin bitter....

Serenity now. Woosah. F*ckin sh*t mother F'er!!!!

DIA vs. QQQQ in 2004

Don't these charts look eerily familiar? The first chart is of the QQQQ back in 2004. The second one is the current daily chart of the DIA.





Now I dare you to find me a similar chart pattern in which we went higher from this point forward instead of lower. I couldn't find one. I don't even know why I'm so bearish right now...it's not like I've got 80 short positions, like my man, Tim Knight does. I hate to be in his shoes right now. As a matter of fact, my only short position is my 10 DIA Sep $112 puts. That's it.

I guess I just enjoy predicting the markets. Here's what I'm going to be looking for over the next few trading sessions:

1) Since we've gone up so much over the past 4 trading sessions, I'm looking for topping tail doji bar tomorrow. If we gap higher, then that gap should be shortable, but look for the DOW to close around where it opened the day.
2) Short term tops are rarely formed in one trading session. We had a very strong day today, which means that we'll most likely get a breather tomorrow, but we're not going to drop just like that. We need to get the bulls believing that we're going higher and the bears to start screaming in pain, then we'll pull the rug out from under the both of them. Only the strong will survive. It'll probably take at least a week to develop.
3) I'll be looking for a false breakout and 180 degree reversal over the next week. Just like in the chart of the QQQQ above. Can you imagine how the traders who bought the breakout of $37.50 felt, when the QQQQ gapped lower the following day and proceeded to make new multimonth lows? They probably felt like the bears are feeling right now.

There's no doubt that all of the market internal indicators (mainly McClellan Oscillator and CCI) that I use are overbought right now. What this tells me is that I should be very careful on the long side over the next few days. And I should be planning more to short stocks than to go long stocks.

Only time will tell where we go over the next few weeks, but I am still sticking to my original technical analysis until something changes my mind. It's just a matter of time before we drop below the June and July lows.

Done for the day...-$125

Ehh...one trade. One loser. Lemme see if I can win a couple of G's playing poker now.

Covered 5 YM at 11358 for -$125

What is going on here?

Short 5 YM at 11353

Bearish divergence in the RSI and we are nearing last week's high. Maybe I'm crazy shorting this market, but bearish divergences in the RSI rarely lie. Notice how I'm only playing 5 contracts now.

Good news and bad news...

The good news is that I get to trade for the rest of the day. The bad news is that I got knocked out of the $50+$10 buy-in tourney with nothing. There was actually a $50 add-on after the end of the second round as well...so the tourney was actually a $100+$10. Anyways, with every knockout comes a bad beat story right? Well, here's mine. I had about 14,000 chips left, blinds were at 400/800 with 100 antes. 9 players. One player in middle limped, and I push all-in from the small blind with AJ suited. The limper calls my $13k raise with KQ offsuit. What a joke right? He catches a Q on the turn, but I also have a flush draw. No help for me and I'm out.

This is what I hate about tourneys, but everybody has to deal with these same bad beats, not just me. It's all just part of the game, right? I'm willing to put in the time and effort to take my tournament game up to another level. I have no other choice if I ever want to "make millions" like those donkeys that I see on the WSOP. My goal right now is that $10,000 WPT Borgata event next month. I need to get into that event.

Alright let's see if I can make some money in the next hour and fourty minutes.

Atlantic City - Day 1 - +$874

I had a little mini-crisis up in Baltimore when I went to pick up the poker tables. It's a long story, but I ended up paying a companying $150 to do the whole customs thing for me. If you ever decide to order things from overseas, make sure that you understand that it's going to be a huge pain in the ass.

Anyways, I arrived in AC around 8:45pm. I got hooked up with a suite. Nice. I was downstairs at the $2/$5 NL table by 9:15pm. I sat and played till about 4am. A seven hour session and I ended up winning $874. Definately not too shabby. The table was ridiculously soft.

So...I played pretty well throughout the entire night. I tried to display a tight table image, but at the same time, I wanted to make my opponents have no clue what two cards I was holding. I only made one major mistake. A mistake that I've made before. I'll describe the hand:

I had AA in the small blind. There are 5 or 6 limpers, then I reraise to $35. Two players call behind me. For me, it's almost a no brainer what I do on the flop. I almost always bet out BIG to try to take the pot down right there. So the flop comes, 2-4-Q, two spades. I bet out $100 like usual. The player to my immediate left calls pretty quickly and the other player goes all-in for less than my $100. Now, I'm thinking to myself...is this player good enough to just call with trips?? He had another $290 behind him. There was almost $400 in the pot now. The turn brought a 9 of clubs. Now, I was "stuck". If I bet too much, then I would be forced to call his all-in. If I bet too little, then I would be giving him the correct odds to draw to a flush. He only had $290, so what the hell do I do? I really couldn't get a read off of him, so it was decision time for me. I decided to bet out $100. He called immediately. Now, I'm thinking...why am I dumping money to his trips like a sucker? The river brought a K of spades. He's only got $190 behind him now. I highly doubt that he had KQ. I didn't put him on a flush draw. And if I bet too little, then I'd probably call his all-in bet regardless. So, I thought for about a minute, then decided to put him all-in. He called immediately and showed 8-5 spades. That hand costed me about $450.

I kept going over this hand in my head for the next few hours. I could've put him all-in on the turn. I could've checked/folded to him on the river. Honestly, I still don't know what I could've done to avoid that disaster. In hindsight, I should've pushed him all-in on the turn. He surely would've folded. But the problem is, if he had a set, then I would've been drawing to two outs. I tell you though, most players don't just call the flop with trips. I usually just call, especially if I have position over the agressor, but most people don't. I think the next time that I'm in this situation, I have to make it real hard for my opponent to call that turn bet. Real hard.

So, that's that one hand that bugged me throughout the entire night. I ended up winning a lot because I got paid off sooo frequently. It was ridiculous. I'd hit two pairs and put $200 out there on the river and the guy would call with second pair. Then, one time, I flopped a set of 3s and make a big reraise on the turn and the guy pushes me all-in with only second pair. Crazy. It was a good night. There's a $50 buy-in tourney starting at 11am. I want to play in it, but I think I may just wait for the 7pm tourney because I do want to trade today. Although this market is barely moving this morning...

CPI Numbers...

I take it that the CPI numbers came in better than expected? I really don't know what to think about the DJIA now. From a technical standpoint, the McClellan Oscillator is hovering above 100, which usually means that we're nearing a top, but it's still trending upwards, so we may still have another day or so left in this rally. The good news about yesterday's move was that volume was very weak. RSI is not really giving us a clear indication of trend, as it is sitting at 57 right now. The CCI indicator is nearing overbought territory at 100, but it doesn't mean that we can't go higher from here.

Basically, I'm saying that the no-follow-through to the downside yesterday pretty much destroyed all of my bearish technical analysis. I don't know what to think now. The best idea is probably to sit tight and wait for a better spot...

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Done for the day...-$5,618

Gotta go.

Covered 10 YM at 11225 for -$6,175

This is not good. I don't like today's price action. The TICK is too bullish, the TRIN is too bullish, even the VIX is bullish. I have no option, but to wait it out. We could potentially gap down tomorrow due to bad CPI numbers, but that would be gambling again. My first mistake was holding overnight. My second mistake was playing too many contracts overnight. If I had 5 contracts, then I wouldn't have been AS worried about the short term fluctuation of the YM. My third mistake was not taking my stop when I should've. Is there a rule that I didn't break?

Okay...I need to roll outta here in about 45 minutes. We just got a 100 boogster.com & raketherake.com poker tables in. Ordered them from China...they cost us about $5k. They're in Baltimore right now. I gotta head up there on my way to AC to give them a check and do the whole customs thing. This is the first time that I've talked about this thing in my blog, but if you live in the D.C. area and play in local bar tournaments, then you may be playing on some of our tables. We're working in conjunction with RedWhiteandBluePoker.com to host free Poker tournaments around the city. It's gonna be sick.

I hope that our competitors aren't reading my blog because those bastards over at PSO have ridiculous amounts of money and they always try to strongarm us. Hah....just kidding, I've got nothing but respect for those guys over at PSO. They run a good business.

Alright...I need to pack and roll outta here. I'm down about $4k from this YM trade total, since I made $1600 yesterday and $700 today. Yeah, I'm bitter as hell about it because I could've taken a small loss yesterday when the YM dropped to 11105!! Oh well...live and learn.

In 10 days, it'll be the first anniversary of my first year of daytrading full-time. Although I've made some stupid mistakes (i.e. GOOG & this YM trade)...I still feel as though I can conquer this daytrading thing. It's not gonna be easy, but I'm up to the challenge, especially when I have anon1124's telling me that I'm gonna go "broke eventually". Stuff like that drive's me to become that much better of a trader. It invigorates me to put that much more effort into winning. For all of you readers out there, stick with me and we'll make money together. I guarantee it.

Time to go "check-raise some tourists". And hopefully, I'll have "mounds and mounds of chips that I can barely see over" by the end of the night. Hah. Rounders reference. I love that movie. I'm out. I'll be trading for the rest of the week, but I'll just be in a different location.


YM at 11214

We're in no man's land right now. In order for the YM to go higher this morning, we had to consolidate first. Since we gapped up this morning, we've basically been in consolidation for the entire day. Now that we've consolidated, there's a chance that we could go higher. I'm not saying that we will go higher, but there's a chance and I don't like it...

Covered 200 PD at $90.52 for breakeven

I wanted to see a faster drop to the downside. It didn't happen.

Short 200 PD at $90.56

I've got an order for another 100 shares, but it didn't get filled.

No doubt that today is a bullish day...

Look at today's market internals. Notice how the TICK has traded between 0 and 1000 for the entire day. Strong. Notice how the TRIN has remained pretty flat, but has traded way below 1.0 for most of the day. Strong. Notice how the VIX is slowly declining. Strong.



Yesterday, we had a very nice drop towards the close, but today there was absolutely no follow through. Not a good sign for my short. Unless we have a bad CPI number tomorrow morning, I don't see us dropping off in the next day or two. I will probably cover my short position pretty soon...at least 5 contracts, if not all of it.

Today's bullishness doesn't change my intermediate term stance on the DOW. I hate to say it, but my shorter term stance (1-3 days) has definately changed though...

Make your own conclusions...

Covered 10 YM at 11217 for +$700

That second lot was just for a scalp. I want to see how much strength this market actually has before I cover my 11101.5 lot.

Covered 1000 EBAY at $24.41 for -$130

One of these days, I'm actually going to pick a winner of theirs.

Short 10 YM at 11231

Another afternoon drop?

Cover YM here?

I would cover here, but my indicators are just not agreeing with the price action...

Short 1000 EBAY at $24.28

DTT pick. Looks good to me.

Looks like the YM broke yesterday's high with volume. And it looks like a W-bottom on the 2-min chart. I'm going to seriously consider covering on the next drop and perhaps even going long.

Another gap up this morning...

Why do I hold overnight? The PPI numbers came in a little lower than expected, thus the big pop this morning. I don't know if I can take another day like yesterday. If I was smart, then I would've sold before the close yesterday. You know what they say...those who don't learn from their mistakes are condemned to repeat them. Okay...whatever happens today, I think that the overnight rule is gonna be non-negotiable from now on. It's just too much of a crapshoot sometimes. There's really no need for holding. There's no need to "gamble".

Alright, the market is about to open here...

Monday, August 14, 2006

Done for the day...+$1,500

I'm still holding 10 contracts of the YM at an average of 11101.5. I still think that we're gonna go lower from here. It's just a matter of time. I didn't like this morning's gap up and run higher, but I did very much like the way we closed today. We had a sharp and steep decline that started around 12PM. and closed with just a slight tail. It would've been much better if we closed at the low of the day, but I'll take it.

At one point during the day, I was staring at a $6,500 paper loss. Yeah, it made me second guess my technical analysis. I should never have even been in this situation in the first place because if I stuck to my trading rules, then I would've sold my entire position before the close on Friday. Instead, I held and I almost paid for it. I was still confident in my technical analysis, but when a stock goes the opposite way by so many points, it's hard not to second guess myself.

So...the day's over. The weekend's over. I sweated a little bit...err...umm...okay, a lot, but it was a controlled sweat. I'm heading up to AC tomorrow, probably after the market close, until Friday afternoon. I didn't get my fill of Poker in Vegas, so I'm gonna go up to AC to fill that void. I'm gonna try my hardest not to play any Blackjack. This trip is just a poker trip though. I'm actually going to try to get into the WPT $10,000 Borgata event that's coming in September. I'm sick of watching all of these donkeys win millions of dollars. I think I'm good enough to be there with them...the only difference between them and me is that I haven't tried playing in one of those big tournaments yet. It's like I want so much to win one of those big $10k buy-in tourneys, but at the same time, I haven't put enough effort into honing my tourney skills. First off, I can't win if I don't try. Secondly, I can't win if I'm not good enough. I'm gonna play in a bunch of tourneys as well as cash games over the next few days....stay tuned....