party poker

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Atlantic City - Day 3

Just played in a marathon session at the $2/$5 NL table. I started playing at 2pm Tuesday and didn't get back to my room until 11am this morning. In those 21 hours, I learned a lot about no limit hold'em. First of all, I don't think I'll ever go back to playing limit hold'em because no limit is so much more damn fun!

My "epiphany" came when I pushed all-in for $191 with my pocket queens against pocket aces. Here's how the hand went down. I raised to $15 in early position with QQ. Two players call, then the button reraises to $100. The button was a solid player with over $4000 in chips, a lot more chips than anyone else at the table. He knew exactly what he was doing. Every move of his was calculated and this hand was no different. For some reason, I put him on JJ. Maybe it was wishful thinking. Anyways, after I called his $100 raise, the two players in between called as well. I knew one of them had a strong Ace. Either AQ or AK. And then the other player probably just had a middle suited connector or something similar because he was a loose cannon who played almost any hand. I wasn't worried about the two players in between, I was just worried about the button.

The flop came 7-3-2. I was first to act, so I pushed all-in for $191. The pot had $400 in it anyways and I was almost certain to call anyone who pushed me all-in. It's always better to put your opponents to a decision instead of having to be the one to make the decision. After thinking for a few minutes, the two players in between folded. And of course the solid player on the button called. He turned over AA. I was done! I had lost my nice stack of $300.

I don't know what it was, but after that hand, it made me realize how much fun I was having playing no limit hold'em. I haven't had this much fun in a long while, especially since I've been grinding it out at the limit tables. This was exciting, this made my adrenaline rush through my body.

So after being stuck $300, I took out another $500, the max buy-in at the $2/$5 NL table. Before I knew it, I had about $1200 in my stack. I busted this one dude for about $1000 when I flopped trip twos and bet the whole way. I was playing so damn well, until...

Yes, until....let's see how the hand started. I had about $1100 in my stack. I had A4 offsuit in early position and limped in for $5. There were 4 or 5 limpers as well including one solid player (not the same one as before) who had well over $3000 in his stack. The flop comes A-3-6 with two clubs. Everybody checks to the solid player who was on the button and he makes it $35 to go. I check-raise him to $70 with my Ace and weak kicker because I honestly thought that I had the best hand. He called. I just knew that he was on a flush draw. I even sarcastically mumbled to him after he called and said "let's get a club". He was like "what, what did you say?". I shouldn't have said anything because at that point, he knew that I was not drawing to flush. Anyways, my money card came on the turn, the non-club 4 came, giving me two pairs. At that point, I didn't think I even needed it. Like I said before, I thought that he was drawing to a flush. As long as no club came, I'd be in good shape. So I bet out $100 on the turn. He quickly called, so that stumped me big time. Normally a solid player would not call to a flush draw for $100 especially since there was only about $250 in the pot. The reason being, even if he made his flush on the river, he wouldn't get paid out. Well, guess what hit on the river? Yup, a club. Obviously, I checked and as soon as I said, "I check"...he pushed in $400. Fuckin' decision time....

There was over $750 in the pot now. I had invested $175 of my own money into that pot. Now, I was being forced to make a decision to call $400. I had only been playing with this solid player for a few hours, but during that time, not once did I witness him trying to buy a pot. Not once! Could he have been doing it this time? Finally, after a few minutes of thinking and going through all of his possible hands, another player put me on the clock. I had to make a decision within 60 seconds. I counted my chips and even if I made the wrong call on this hand, I'd still have about $500 left. I looked at him and stared at him trying to get a read. I thought to myself, he'd have to be stupid to make a play at me because I haven't made a play at anyone the whole night. Why $400?!?!? He's bluffing. No he's not. Just fold the damn hand and wait for a better spot. Just fold, just fold, just fold. Next thing I knew, I threw in 16 green $25 chips and all he said was "FLUSH". He showed Q2 of clubs. FUCK! I should've known better!!!

Needless to say, I was steaming after that hand. I was doing sooooo well. This happened at around 8am or 9am this morning. About two hours later, I decided that I needed some sleep because I was dozing off at the table. Here were the final results of my marathon day:

Prior Total: +$44
Morning session: +$218
Lunch: -$15
Night session: -$186
Misc: $2

Net Total: +$59

I was up over $1000 at one point! I still have a few days left though. Even though I lost close to $900 in two hands, I definately think that it was money well spent. Honestly, I learned so much from these two solid players. I see it as cheap way to gain experience. Every good player has made these same bad mistakes before and now I've been there and done that. Hopefully, I won't repeat these same mistakes again.

It's about 4pm now and I can't wait to get back to down there to bust some players. I can't wait.

Boogster

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Atlantic City - Day 2

After a 10 hour session last night at the $2/$5 NL table, I walked away with +$450, so that puts me back into the black for now.

Prior Losses: -$389
$2/$5 NL : +$450
dinner: -$15

Net Total: +$44

At least I'm on the positive side now. It's 2pm now and I'm about to grab some lunch and head down to the poker room for another long session. I decided to wait until tomorrow to play in the another tourney because I want to get some live action play in first. Tourneys are draining and for the very most part, they are pretty boring because most of the time, you are sitting there and waiting for a hand to play.

Boogster

Monday, November 28, 2005

Atlantic City - Day 1

Arrived in AC at 9:30am. It took about 3.5 hours to get here. I was asleep the whole way, since I never went to bed the night before. Anyways, I took a mini-nap in my room at the Borgata just before the 12:00pm $300+$40 NL tourney at the Showboat. I wanted to get refreshed, so that I wouldn't make any dumb mistakes during the tourney.

The line to register for the tournament was ridiculous. They were expecting around 200-300 players and the tournament ended up having 548 registrations! Crazy. After waiting in line for about an hour and a half, I finally got to my table. I was already blinded off for the first round, so I had 1450 in chips left. Everyone started with 1500. The blinds started at 25/25.

I don't think I played a hand for the first three or four rounds. The first hand that I played, I had AJo in the big blind with two limpers. I just checked it. The flop came J-9-2. I checked, the guy in middle position bet out small and I just called. The turn brought a 6. I checked once again. He checked behind me. The river brought a 4 and I bet out 200. He called and showed A-4. I took down the small pot along with a little bit of a confidence booster.

There's that feeling that you get when you win your first pot. It's like "okay, now I'm ready to start playing...".

After a few hours of play, I didn't think I made too many big mistakes, I just didn't get any big hands. By the time I knew it, I had about 900 chips left with blinds at 100/200 with 25 ante. I looked down and saw pocket 4s. I raised it to 400, two times the big blind. The small and big blinds called. The flop came 6-7-A. Both of them checked and I went all in for 475. The small blind quickly folded and the big blind thought for a good minute. He finalled called with his pocket 5s. Dammit...game over. He even mumbled "you have the better hand when he threw in 475." He should've folded! If he would've just folded that hand, I would've had about 1700. Instead, I ended up doing the walk of shame...

I still ended up finishing around 200 out of 548, but it wasn't the finish that I was hoping for. I'm not exactly sure what I did wrong. Perhaps I could've played a few more hands early on to build up some chips....I don't know.

There are tournaments all week long, so I'm going to try to build up my bankroll in the cash games and then get a freeroll into the tourneys. I'm really here just for the tourneys because there aren't very many live tournaments with such a huge prize pool where I live. The winner of the $300+$40 tourney is going to walk away with $49,200. Can't beat that at home.

So, here's the breakdown of what I've spent so far:

Cab ride over to showboat: $12
Lunch: $9
Tourney Buy-in: $340
Cab ride back to borgata: $12
Misc: $14

Total: -$389

I only brought $1200 with me, so let's hope I can build up a bankroll in the cash game tonight. I'll probably be playing until the morning. Either $2/$5 NL or $10/$20 limit. Wish me luck.

Boogster

Sunday, November 27, 2005

NFL Sunday picks...

Tampa vs. Bears Under 31.5
Vikings vs. Browns Under 38
Raiders vs. Dolphins under 41.5
Panthers vs. Bills Over 7 1st quarter
Buccaneers vs. Bears Under 6 1st quarter
Redskins vs. Chargers Under 7.5 1st Quarter
Titans vs. 49ers Under 7.5 1st Quarter
Giants vs. Seahawks -2.5 1st half
Seattle money line -200
Panthers vs. Bills over 18 1st half

Saturday, November 26, 2005

True Life: A week in the life of a poker pro

Alright...I got crushed on the Thanksgiving day NFL games. I knew they were both traps. I took Detroit +3.5 and Dallas +2. That Dallas game was such a sucker bet. It went from -2 dallas to +3 Dallas. A 5 point move from the opening line!! I took the bait anyways...And then, the first quarter bets. They were both at over/under 7.5, but the juice on them were -140 and -130. When the juice is that high, the total should really be 7, so I shouldn't have bet on either of them. The only good thing about Thursday was that I hit my Cowboys +2 first half bet for 2 units. Other than that one bet, it was an ugly day....-7 units.

The past few days have been a little bit better. I've been doing pretty well with the college basketball games. It looks like the "system" is working pretty well on those games. I'm going to continue betting them until I start losing. I'll start posting some of the picks after a few more days of stats.

After cashing out a Full Tilt, I deposited $600 at Poker Stars for the $20 deposit bonus up to $120. I'm not usually a big fan of reload bonuses, but I wanted to play at Poker Stars and I figured that I'd might as well take full advantage of the bonus. Anyways, it took me less than 24 hours to clear the bonus. During that time, I ended up winning a total of $9! I was up as much as $900 at one point, but by the time I completed my bonus, I was back down to breakeven.

I played $5/$10 NL, $3/$6 NL, $10/$20 limit and $5/$10 limit. $5/$10 NL was pretty crazy. I hardly ever play that high for no limit, but I figured that I'd give it a try since I was already up a few hundred at that point. This one hand, I had about $300 left and I had pocket Kings in the small blind. There was an overagressive player in the cutoff who would raise it to $21 on pretty much every hand, so I figured that I'd try to trap him. He made his standard raise and I just called in the small blind with Kings. The flop came 9-6-3 rainbow. I bet out $22. He just called. The turn was a 2. I bet out $65 and once again, he just called. The river paired up the 6. This time, I went all in for another $200 or so. And he called. He turned over 9-7 for top pair and a weak kicker. So I took home a nice $600 pot.

This other hand, I had pocket Aces and I reraised the original raiser to $36. The original raiser just called. I had position over him. The flop brought a 7-J-Q, all hearts. I bet out $50. He calls. I don't remember what the turn brought, but it wasn't a heart, so I went all-in for another hundred and change and he immediately called. He flopped the nut flush! I lost about $200-$300 on that hand...

Oh well...shit happens.

Onto stocks...I'm holding PD call options and BGO (gold stock) right now. I bought the PD call options at 6.5 and now it closed at 11 on friday. Yeah, I'm making loot on that one. BGO, I bought at 2.85 and it went all the way up to 3.02 that same day, but I decided to hold and now it's back to 2.86. I hate to lose profits, but at the same time, I hate to miss out on big runs....like SVA and IIJI and those other stocks that ran away from me right after I sold them and took profits.

One last thing...RIP Mr. Miyagi.



btw...I'm going to be a poker pro for a week starting on Monday. I'm going up to Atlantic City with a bankroll of about $2000 and I'm going to try to play as though it were my only source of income. I'll be playing in a few tournaments and I'm going to spend a lot of time playing cash games. I've been honing up my no limit game, so that's what I'll proabably be playing for most of the time. I'll start off at $2/$5, then move my way up depending on how I do.

Let the games begin...

Boogster

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

$900 win at Full Tilt; Poker tourneys coming up...

UB wasn't treating me well and I had some money at Full Tilt, so I decided to play a little bit there. I started out playing $5/$10, but I wasn't getting anywhere. Then, I accidentally stumbled into a $5/$10 NL game. I started with my usual $200 bankroll, then after about 5 or 6 hands, I doubled it up after a player called me down all the way to the river after I flopped a boat, tens over jacks.

From that $400 that I won, I went over to the $3/$6 NL short handed table and started grinding it out. I was getting some incredible cards and they were holding up. There was an overagressive guy at my table with close to $2,000. He would raise it to $21 preflop on about 60-75% of the hands. Well, this one hand, I had KK in the small blind. He was in the cutoff and made his standard raise of $21. I just cold called his bet, looking to take him out after the flop. The flop came 9-6-3 rainbow. I bet out $22, roughly half of the pot. He just called after a split second hesitation. The turn brought a 2. This time, I bet out $65 to tell him that I wasn't playing around anymore. He thought for a second and called again. The river brought a 6. I went all in with my remaining $200. And he called. He showed 9-7 suited for top pair and took down a monster pot.

So, now I'm up $900 and I just cashed out entirely. This will ease some of the pain from my bad luck streak on UB. I still have a little way to go before I make up all of those losses. Man, when UB turns on you, it turns in a bad way! I did, however, manage to generate a little over $1,000 in rake, so I'll be getting about 25% of that back at the end of the month. Gotta love rakeback.

I'm playing in a small tourney tonight with the boys. I think the tourneys will be $20 buy-ins or something like that. Nothing big. I haven't played in a live action game since that last tourney. I'm excited to play with real people again.

I'm heading up to Atlantic City for the entire week, next week. The WSOP circuit event is coming to the Showboat starting on Monday, November 28th. I'm going to play in the $300 NL tourney and a $500 NL tourney. I'll just start out with those two and depending on how I do, I may play in some more.

The goal for next week is to make money. That's the only goal. I'm going to treat playing poker like a profession and see how I do. Look for my name on the leaderboards:

2005 WSOP Tournament Circuit at the Showboat in AC

2005 Trump Classic Poker Tournament

Maybe I'll get lucky and win an entry into the big $10,000 buy-in event. I'm ready to kick some ass...

Boogster

Monday, November 21, 2005

Royal Hold'em at UB; Break.com; FTP & $50/month for free...

Not sure if any of you have played the new hold'em game at UB or not, but it's pretty fun. If you like action, then this is the game for you because 75% of the players see almost every flop. For those of you who don't know what Royal Hold'em is, it's a game played exactly like hold'em, except all of the cards number 2-9 are removed from the deck. So, you're essentially playing with 20 cards. Right now, the highest limits are $3/$6 short-handed. Since there are only 20 cards, this game cannot be played with any more than 6 players.

I haven't figured out exactly what the correct strategy is, but I do know that high pocket pairs (AA, KK) should almost always be raised and hands like TT, JJ, TJ, TQ should almost always be thrown away. The majority of the hands are won by full houses, Straights are rarely any good. If you have anything less than two pair after the flop, then you should throw your hand away.

Anyways, it seems like there's still a lot of new players who are new to the game and have absolutely no clue what the correct strategy is. So, this game can be pretty lucrative if you play your cards right.

Yesterday in the NFL, I broke even. I should've made out like a bandit, but I didn't give myself enough time to enter my 1 o'clock picks. I got caught up playing online poker and then when I tried to enter my picks in at 12:55pm, Bet Royal went down. By the time I went over to Sports Interaction, all of the 1 o'clock games were gone. Oh well, I guess my bets could've gone the other way as well.

My one NBA pick yeseterday (Chicago vs. Lakers Over 190.5), all they had to do was to score another basket and I would've been good to go. There's nothing like wathing a game with just a few seconds left and you need another bucket to win your bet. It's like that movie Two For The Money. For some reason, the score almost always never goes your way.

So, overall, for the weekend, I lost about 5 or 6 units. Dammit! I hate losing.

Tonight, I threw in a few NCAA basketball picks. Two of which I have already lost. However, I did win my 2 unit 1st quarter under 7.5 for the Monday night football game. So, right now, as I'm writing, I'm even for the night. I still have the one more NCAA game to go (Loyola Marymount -10 vs. Montana) and I have the under for tonight's football game. I have it BIG. Under 44.5. Let's see how it goes.

It's halftime now and the over/under is 20.5. If I wanted to, I can actually hedge my bet back and the worst that I would do is break even, but that wouldn't be gambling, now would it?


So...has anyone heard of this site called break.com before? They have all kinds of videos and pictures on there. Apparently, they get over 12 million page views a day. That's a ridiculous number of visitors a day. Anyways, it's one of my new favorite sites. Here are some of my favorite videos so far:









I've been on this break.com site for hours...I can see how they get so many hits now. Crazy, I need to build me one of these websites.

One last thing, there's a Full Tilt Poker banner at the lower right of my blog. Believe it or not, they're giving "select bloggers" $50/month for having this ad on their blog sites. I said why not...it'll pay for my cell phone bill...hah.

btw...I got sidetracked on break.com, but it's nearing the end of the football game now and the score is 17-14 with 3:13 left. I've got my fingers crossed...

Boogster

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Damn...

I'm not exactly sure what my record was for yesterday, but I do know that my bankroll was a lot lower than the day before. I tried to get some bets in for today's NFL games, but I got caught up in this new Royal Hold'em game at UltimateBet and tried to get my bets in a little too late. BetRoyal always craps out 5 minutes before game time and that's when I tried to get my bets in. The only bet that I get in was Cinci +5 vs. Indy.

Here are the bets that I would've taken:
Skins vs. Oakland Under 7.5 1st quarter
Philly vs. Giants under 7.5 1st quarter
Skins vs. Oakland under 44.5 game
Cowboys vs. Detroit under 39 game
Chicago +1 vs. Carolina 1st half

There was an over 6.5 in the 1st quarter that I was going to take as well. I don't remember which game it was since the line disappeared. Stupid BetRoyal. They need to get some more bandwidth.

Boogster

Friday, November 18, 2005

Some college picks...

First half bets:
Nevada vs. Utah State Over 28.5 (+)
New Mexico State vs. San Jose State Over 28.5 (+)
North Carolina -13
Idaho vs. Boise State Over 32.5 (+)
San Jose State -4
Tulsa vs. Tulane Over 28.5
South Carolina vs. Clemson Under 24
Stanford vs. California Under 27
Air Force vs. New Mexico Over 31
San Diego State -3.5
USC vs. Fresno State Under 32.5
UAB +4.5
Oregon State vs. Oregon Over 28.5

Full game bets:
Michigan 3
Rice vs. Central Florida Under 57.5
Idaho vs. Boise State Over 63
Michigan State +8
UAB +7.5
New Mexico vs. Air Force under 60 (-)
USC -23
Tulane +14
Utah vs. BYU Under 57.5 (-)
Buffalo +6.5

The ones with the (+) at the end, I bet more on. The ones with the (-), I bet less on. I've been honing my new "system", so hopefully, the bets that I lost in last week will be winners this week.

Tonight, I'm 3-1 so far. Here are the bets that I took:
Cleveland -11 (win)
Philadelphia vs. Miami Under 204 (win)
Texas Tech vs. Wake Forest Under 68 first half (win)
Texas Tech vs. Wake Forest Under 146.5 (loss)
Syracuse vs. Florida Under 135 (pending)

If it weren't for the double overtime in the Texas Tech vs. Wake Forest game, I'd be 4-0 right now. What a sham. Oh well. Let's see how the new "system" fairs this weekend. Good luck!

Boogster

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Hockey picks...

I couldn't find any NBA picks, so here are some hockey picks for tonight:

Carolina -160
Boston -125

They both fall into my "system".

Made a good amount back today in the stock market with CBJ. The whole gold sector is making a run and with volume, so if you're not on board yet, it's time to load up.

Boogster

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

bad day all around...

The market gave me a beating today. That's what I get for going against the flow on options expiration week. I'll never do that again. Always stick with the trend and keep tight stops. The cardinal rules of daytrading. I broke both of those today. I have no time to sulk though.

The market made me steam a little bit, so I started playing some online poker. $5/$10 limit hold'em at UB. I couldn't find any open 6 handed games, so I played some heads up. The first dude took me for about $250, then quit on me. I reloaded my account and played another dude heads up. He took me for $200 and I was dunzo. I reloaded again and started playing two tables of $5/$10. Forutnately, after being stuck about $700, I'm back up to -$200 now. I need to get even here, so I can get back some of that -$1400 from the prior sessions.

I did cash out over $2k before I hit this bump though. So, I'm still up overall, but once I cash out with winnings, I consider that a breakeven point. So, as far as I'm concerned I'm down about $1600 now.

On a good note, I did cash out with +$400 at Golden Palace yesterday. I did exactly like I said I was going to do and brought my stack up to $875 playing blackjack. They took away $250 for the bonus, which left me with $725, of which $125 was my initial deposit. Then I left $100 in my account and lost all of that today.

It looks like my "system" is doing well. So here are some more picks for tonight:

Golden State -6
Portland +3
Golden State under 102 1st half
Portland +2 1st half

I put two units on the first two. I might take the statfox picks too.

Alright, enough gambling for the day. I gotta take a rest.


Boogster

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Picks for tonight...

Picks for tonight. These picks are based off of my new "system":

1) Cleveland vs. Washington Under 102 1st half
2) Clippers vs. Bucks Under 104 1st half
3) Timberwolves mone line (-140)

Let's see how they do.

Boogster

Monday, November 14, 2005

More gambling...

Let's see...what kind of gambling trouble did I get into this weekend? I went buckwild on the sportsbetting again. I'm not even going to list how many bets I placed this weekend because it would probably scroll a few pages. Anyways, the end result was a breakeven weekend. If it weren't for those halftime bets that I threw in, I'd be up a few hundred now. I think I'm going to stay away from halftime bets from now, at least until I can find some sort of edge.

I've been trying to decipher all of the trends that Statfox.com offers and I think I may have found a system. BTW...I signed up for their subscription service. It was $99 for 3 months or something like that. I figured that I wagered thousands each weekend, what's $99 for a service? Besides, Statfox doesn't really give picks, they just offer the trends and the historical stats behind each game. They do all of the number crunching for me, which is exactly what I need in order to get to that next level in handicapping.

So, the system that I found. Statfox.com lists "Super Situations" where they offer historical trends that have been proven to be profitable over time. These "Super Situations" are based off of hundreds of trends within their database. For each game, they run these trend reports and list all of the trends that are active for that particular game. Their trends are ranked from 1 to 8, maybe higher, but I've never seen anything higher than an 8. Well, the system that I have is, for any game that has a trend rank of 4 or higher on one side of the game, then that's the side that I should be betting on.

I didn't keep any stats on the bets that I took based off of this system, but I'm pretty sure that the win rate was over 70%. I'll keep some stats this coming weekend and see how it goes.

In the poker world, I've been playing a bunch at UltimateBet. I've actually been getting crushed. I've dropped over $1000 in the past two weeks playing $5/$10 limit. I've also played in a few tourneys, mainly $30 and lower. I'm not worried about the $1000 that I dropped because I'll get it back...like I always do.

Some dude from Golden Palace called me up today and offered me a 200% redeposit bonus up to $250 at their casino. The wagering requirements are 4 times the deposit + bonus. So, here's what I'm going to do. I've deposited $125 to get the max bonus of $250, which means that I'll have to wager $1500 in order to withdraw. $1500 might seem like a lot, but it's really not. Well, I'm going to play at the live blackjack table with $25 bets. Hopefully, I'll be up a little bit before I get to $1200 wagered. After I get to $1200, I'm going to make a $300 bet. Win or lose, I'm going to cash out. This bonus that they're giving me, it's a "free play" bonus, which means that I don't actually get to keep the bonus money. It can only be used to wager with. Let's see what happens...my max risk is only $125 anyways.

I'll leave you all with a quote from the late Stu Ungar that says speaks volumes:

Show me a guy who doesn’t treat poker as a business and I’ll show you a loser.


boogster

Saturday, November 12, 2005

College Football Picks

Here you go:

1) Kansas State +6 vs. Nebraska
2) Stanford vs. Oregon State Under 29 1st half
3) Illinois vs. Purdue Under 28.5 1st half
4) Oregon vs. Washington State Under 62.5
5) Connecticut +12 vs. Pittsburgh

Boogster

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Bets for last night...

I took a few NBA bets last night based on the Statfox.com Super Situations. They picked:

Orlando +4.5 at New Orleans
Golden State at Chicago Money Line
Golden State at Chicago -3 1st half

They hit two out of three as Chicago didn't cover their 1st half -3. I also took a few picks of my own:

Clippers +3.5 at Wizards
Clippers at Wizards under 182

The Clippers covered, but the total went over 182, so I broke even on my own bets.

I've been playing some $5/$10 limit at Ultimate Bet too. Let's see, I dropped $600, then redeposited $400 and I'm up $200 from the latest deposit.

I actually played in a $30+$3 NL tournament last night. It was $12k guaranteed. I was playing so well. I had over 25,000 chips where the average chipstack was 10,000. There were 63 players out of 400 left and the top 50 gets paid. However, only the top 5 really make money. First place paid $3.3k. The other places just paid chump change, so I wasn't playing for anything but one of the top 5 places.

So, the following hand came up. I was in the big blind with Q4o. Blinds were at 300/600. Five players limp to me and I just call. The flop comes K-4-3. The small blind and myself checks to the player to my immediate left who bets out 1500. Everyone folds to me and I decide to just call. The turn brings another 3. I check and the players bets out 3000 this time. I put him on a King. He has me covered in chips by a slight margin. I check raise him to 6000 leaving me with roughly 15000 more chips. He just calls. The river brings a 2 and I go all-in immediately. I should know better than to bluff against the big stack, but how in the world could he call me with just a King? Seriously. Anyways, he called me and that was the end of my tournament. I should've known better than to get all my chips in with the worst of it. I'm better than that. Next time.

Boogster

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Bad bet, small loss...

It looks like I was the "fish" last night along with the other 40% that bet on the Patriots. Last night's line looked to good to be true. And you already know what they say about things that look to good to be true. I should've known better than to take that bet. The lines-maker was just dangling that hook out there for me and I bit. I bit hard. I dropped 5 bills on last nights game.

So that was the bad news. The good news was that I played in the Bet Royal Poker freeroll last night. I hardly ever play in freerolls, but for some reason I decided to join the "Monday Night Freeroll" tournament. Perhaps it's because I got so many damn emails about it that I wanted to see what all of the fuss was all about. The payout for first place was only $75! However, if you bet at least $25 in their sportsbook on the Monday night game, then they'd give you an additional 5 times your tournament winnings. I have absoultely no clue what drove me to play in that tournament.

Anyways, 99 players entered the freeroll. For the first several rounds, I started raising every pot just because I wanted to end it and watch the football game. Luckily, I doubled up a few times. Then, I put it on auto-pilot (folded every hand) and cooked some dinner. 30 minutes later, I started playing again. Before I knew it, I was sitting at the final table with the chiplead. By midnight, it was over and I had won the darn thing. $450 richer. Pretty crazy if you ask me, but it definately softened the blow on my Patriots loss.

So, for the night, I ended up dropping $50 total. I also bet the money line on the Patriots for the first quarter. It ended up pushing (7-7), so that was a wash.

Good thing I came away with minimal losses last night. Five bills is definiately not very easy to stomach. The truth is, "you can't win if you don't gamble". On the flipside of that, I guess you can't lose either.

Made a killing on FUEL today. Check out the intra-day chart below:



This stock was a thing of beauty. The previous day, it closed at it's low of the day as a bearish engulfing bar. Today, it gapped higher on better than expected earnings. It gapped deep into the Wide Range Bar (+WRB) set about a month ago. According to Pristine.com, this is considered a bullish mortgage play. The play is to buy the stock at the open or wait for it to break the 5-minute high. The 5 minute high was broken at approximately 10am (key reversal time). I bought this stock big at 3.16. From that point on, it continued to trend higher throughout the day. The plan now is to sell 1/2 below it's 15-minute low and the other half when it either hits the target ($5) or when it breaks two prior 15-minute pivot lows. Let's see what happens tomorrow.


Boogster

Monday, November 07, 2005

Went a little crazy with the sportsbetting this weekend...

So, I deposited at Bet Royal and SportsInteraction. It's always good to have at least two separate books because that way you can compare the lines. I realized that SportInteraction almost always has the better lines for me, especially considering the fact that I almost always bet on the Under versus the Over.

This weekend, I went 7-8 in college for -1 unit. Not a good record, but then again, I didn't really lose too much either. I hit most of my big bets, like Kansas +1 over Nebraska. I put $330 on that one. I lost a lot of the smaller one unit bets.

In the NFL, I went 6-4-2 for +2 units. So, after the vig/juice, I pretty much broke even on the weekend. I'm continuing to have success on betting the first quarter lines. What I try to do is to bet the under in the first quarter for teams with strong offenses like the Giants and Seattle. The first quarter total for both of those teams yesterday was 7.5. The magic number is definately 7.5. 6 is an automatic as well. 6.5 and 13.5 are no good.

For tonight's game, I'm looking to bet big on this one. The Colts are 7-0 and seemingly unstoppable averaging 27 PPG overall, 30.2 PPG on the road and 37 PPG in their last 3 games. The Patriots are 4-3 with losses to Denver, Carolina and San Diego averaging 24 PPG in their last three games. Manning has never won at Foxboro (0-7) and has a 2-10 career record versus the Patriots. Brady is 6-0 against the Colts.

The line opened at Colts -3 and now sits at -4.5. The total opened at 46 and it's now sitting at 49. According the wagerline.com, the consensus is favoring the Colts by a margin of 3-2. That means, for every 5 bettors, three of them are betting on the Colts and two of them are betting on the Patriots. The over/under total consensus is roughly 5.5 to 4.5.

You know where my money is going. The Patriots on Monday night at home as a dog?? Doesn't make sense. You figure that the masses would be betting on the Patriots, but no...they're favoring the Colts. I'm taking taking the Patriots +4.5 and perhaps I'll lay a unit down on the money line as well. The odds definately favor the Patriots in this one. And I always go where the odds lie.

As far as the over/under, the masses are betting on the over and the total has gone up by 3.5 points since the open. I don't like this bet as much as the Patriots +4.5, but I think the odds definiately lie in the favor of the under here.

Good luck tonight.


Boogster

Saturday, November 05, 2005

A juicy one...

Here's a late game pick...this one is way too juicy...

Texas A&M +14 vs. Texas Tech

It's a LOCK. You can quote me on that.

Boogster

College Picks...

Here you go...here are my picks for Saturday. I've only gone through the games up to about 2pm. If I come up with more, then I'll post them:

Arkansas -4.5 vs. South Carolina
Iowa vs. Northwestern under 61
Minnesota vs. Indiana under 61
Kansas -1 vs. Nebraska
Bowling Green vs. Kent State +11

Boogster

Friday, November 04, 2005

The power of the call...

Alright, I'm going to talk a little about poker today, since I've been playing quite a bit at UltimateBet. Mostly short handed $10/$20 limit hold'em. I've been honing up my heads-up game too by playing some $5/$10 and $3/$6 heads-up hold'em. Short handed hold'em is definately my specialty. I've been consistently making money playing this game for the past two and a half years.

So...here's one thing that I learned from my -$800 headsup session about a month or two ago. My opponent was definitely better than me at headsup poker. Yeah, I dropped $800 in about 45 minutes of playing $5/$10 headsup hold'em. Check back to one of my earlier blogs to see what happened.

Anyways...I'm going to tell you what I think the best strategy is against super aggressive opponents, also known as maniacs. We've all encountered them before and it's super tough to play against them because like their name implies, they are ompletely unpredictible. The strategy that I'm about to explain really only applies when you are heads-up against a maniac or if you are in a short handed situation.

So...simply put, the strategy is simple: raise less and call more often. Say it about 5 times to yourself.

Raise less and call more often.

That's it. Obviously, if you have hands like AK, AQ, or a high pair, then you want to make the maniac pay extra to see the flop, so in those situations, you want to reraise him. However, if you have good starting hands for heads-up, like KJ, AT, AJ, TT, 99, then you only want to call the maniac's raise. Because hands like the latter are only good if the flop is favorable. By just calling more often, not only does the maniac not know what you're holding, but also it gives you a chance to reraise or check-raise on hands when you hit your two pair or flush draw or whatever.

I've said this before, but most of the time, when I bet, I bet to see where my opponent stands. I bet to gain information from my opponent. If I lead out after the flop and my opponent raises, then most of the time, he either has a made hand or perhaps two over cards or maybe he's drawing. If he doesn't have a hand, then he'll usually fold...again, every bet that I make is used to gain information. Another thing that I focus on is how long it takes for my opponent to check, bet or raise. The amount of time it takes for an opponent to react to my bet gives valuable informations as well.

So, if I were on the other side of this game and my opponent bets out into me to "gain information", then a lot of times "just calling" is the best way to counteract his strategy of gaining information. By just calling a bet, my opponent has no idea what I have. I could be setting him up for a raise on the turn, I could be drawing, I could have a made hand...I could have anything.

Now, against a maniac, the best strategy to employ is the one that I just stated above. Just call him. Let me give you some examples of hands that I was involved in.

I have AKo in the big blind against a maniac playing $10/$20 short handed. He is in the small blind and raises it. I reraise. The flop comes A-T-6. He bets out and I just call. The turn brings an 8. He bets out again and I just call. The river brings a 2. He bets out again and once again and I just call. He shows AJ and I outkick him. By just calling, he probably put me on either KK or QQ. Now if I would've raised him on the flop or the turn, then if he happened to hit his two pair and reraised, I'd have to call him down to the river because he could very well be holding AT or A-6 or even T-6. Also, by not raising, he could very well have had 2nd pair and now, instead of getting him off of his hand, I am maximizing my profits be letting him bet his money away.

Here's one more example:

I have J-6 in the small blind and the maniac raises in the big blind. I call. The flop comes J-7-2. I check and the maniac bets. I call. The turn brings a 9. I check and the maniac bets again. I call. The river brings a 4. This time, I bet out and usually the maniac will call with 2nd pair or lower. The reason that I don't check raise on the turn is because the maniac could very well be holding a higher pair or perhaps two pairs or higher. By check-raising, he could reraise and again, I would have to pay him off. I don't know about you, but I never ever want to give a maniac more money than he deserves. By betting out on the river, I'm only risking one extra raise if I'm wrong. And more importantly, I'm charging him to see my high pair because I most likely have the best hand.

Another thing to note is that I will call a maniac down to the river with 2nd pair or even 3rd pair. And I will bet out on the river with 2nd pair if it is checked to me. I'll also call after the flop with absolutely nothing, then bet out on the turn if it is checked to me...sometimes. It's not a great idea to bluff a maniac, but sometimes if you play it right, the best strategy is to throw out a bluff or two. Especially when it's a calculated bluff.

I hope this blog kinda explains my strategy and thought process when playing against a maniac. Right now, I feel as though I'm in complete control of a heads-up match using my strategy. A lot of players get nervous when playing against a maniac because they don't know how to react to an over-agressive player, however if you just took a step back and put yourself in their shoes, you'd be able to figure out what makes them nervous, then you can use that against them.


Boogster

Thursday, November 03, 2005

Poker Share is Dunzo...

Not sure if you guys have heard or not, but Poker Share, the Ultimate Bet skin, which is where I've been playing for the past few weeks is no longer allowing North American customers to play at their site. My guess is that Ultimate Bet was losing a lot of customers because these new customers were switching over to Poker Share in order to get rakeback.

In my opinion, any poker company that has a "skin" is using the wrong business model, unless that company only owns the right to the software behind the poker room. I think Playtech is like that. They own their software and then they license it out to their different skins. This way, they don't have to absorb any of the advertising costs. Instead, these costs are absorbed by their "skins". This business model makes their company a very very lucrative one.

However, Party Poker, UltimateBet and Poker Room and all of those other sites that have their own proprietary software, who license this software out to their own skins are all going about it the wrong way. Seriously, what they're basically doing is sending their own customers away to their franchisees. With the advent of rakeback programs, customers are just going to jump ship and go to the skin that offers the highest rakeback.

The online world is not like the brick and mortar world. In the online world, customers from all over the world can go to the same place to do all of their business. In the brick and mortar world, customers are limited to what they have access to based on their location. Meaning, I can't get a burger at McDonalds if one doesn't exist within my area. Brick and Mortar companies are forced to open additional stores to accommodate customers in different locations. Online businesses are not.

So, getting on to the point, when Poker Share debuted last month touting itself as "an UltimateBet skin", I knew that it was going to be a mess. The idea behind their site was great..."the more you play, the more shares of the company you can own" ...if and when they offer an IPO. However, what they didnt' realize was that they'd be taking every customer away from their parent company, UltimateBet. Yesterday, they just came out with a statement saying that they closed the accounts of all customers living in North America. North America represents the biggest market in the online poker world, with the UK and Canada rounding out the top three. Without the North American market, I really don't know how they'll be able to survive, especially with all of the established "non-american" poker sites out there already.

The reason that I'm even bringing all of this up is because we (boogster.com) were thinking about spawning off franchises at one point. We were thinking about selling our "system" as a service. Get sub-affiliates to sign-up under us, let them use our system, while making a small percentage of what they make. This idea is similar to the "skins" idea above. But after thinking about it...the idea didn't make sense because why would we want someone to take our own customers away from us? Not only that, but we would be creating our own competition. Instead of making X dollars, we would be making X times 5%-10% dollars with lower profit margins. Not a good idea. Not a good idea at all.

It's good to see that Party Poker realized this flaw in their business model and broke it off with their "skins". Ultimate Bet on the other hand...they have no idea what they're getting into.

Boogster

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

6 for 6, Poker Share Run, etc.

Wow, I went 6 for 6 on the Sunday night and Monday night football games. Here are the following bets that I took:

1) Buffalo +10
2) Buffalo vs. Patriots under 7.5 1st quarter
3) Buffalo vs. Patrios under 44
4) Ravens +7 1st half
5) Ravens +3.5 1st quarter
6) Ravens +12.5

Not only that, but I doubled down on the Ravens 1st half bet. That's 7 bills. I started with $500 at millsports.com and I just cashed out for $1890. Nice huh?

I also cashed out for another $1100 at Poker Share. I hit one of those runs over the past two weeks, so I'm just riding it now. I've been playing short handed $10/$20 limit hold'em, my specialty.

Stocks. I hit a big one today. I had NVAX from 3.56 then bought some more at 3.91. It went up to a high of 5.05 today. That's more than a 30% gain in two days. Unfornately, I sold half at 4.35 and the second lot at 4.41. Both for nice gains, so no complaints here. I need to find a better exit strategy though because I always seem to exit stocks like this way too early.

Right now, I'm holding AAPL puts, SVA long, DROOY long and 1 AMZN put option.

SIRI looks like it's shaping up nicely. If it weren't for the fact that it went up 5% today, I'd be in it right now. Not to mention that it's gone up 3 days in a row. I'll probably buy some shares for my longer term portfolio on the next dip.

Has anybody read Negreanu's blog lately? He talks about winning and losing hundreds of thousands of dollars EVERY single friggin night. Can you imagine that? To be honest with you, I don't even think multi-millionaires would be able to handle a swings like that. I don't know how much money the guy has, but damn, he must have a fortune. All from playing poker?!? I'll be there one day. It's just a matter of time.


Boogster